Fantasy Upside
The arrival of Matthew Stafford benefits every receiving option on the Rams including Cooper Kupp. Although Kupp’s Average Depth of Target (aDOT) may not increase because of his role as a slot receiver, he does stand to be Stafford’s best slot weapon since Golden Tate. In four seasons with Stafford, Tate topped 1,000 receiving yards three times. Kupp has reached the 1,000-yard mark once in four seasons. Kupp led the Rams in team target market share in 2020 despite playing one fewer game than Robert Woods. While touchdowns are not predictable, Kupp’s three last season were the fewest of his career and even one more is a boost to his fantasy upside.
Fantasy Downside
Kupp’s upside may be attached to former Rams QB Jared Goff. According to PFF’s Scott Barrett, Jared Goff targeted slot wide receivers 25.8% of the time, the third-most in the NFL (2009-18, min. 800 career pass attempts). Stafford was 18th at 18.9%. The Rams receiving corps added DeSean Jackson and TuTu Atwell, but the majority of the outside work appears to be set with Woods and Van Jefferson. Jefferson led the Rams in aDOT (in a smaller sample) and Woods is set for an increase in aDOT. Darrell Henderson is also a trustworthy running back in the passing game, a position that Stafford targeted the fourth-most in Barrett’s same study. At 28-years old, Kupp is at the beginning of his decline window that goes until age 33-34.
Kupp is an established receiver that has 1,000-yard upside, but it does not guarantee the same success Tate had with Stafford.
2021 Bottom Line
Kupp is firmly entrenched as a WR2 with potential upside to reach top 10-15 status. The arrival of Stafford does not increase his target share based on historical data on Stafford, but the upgrade to him benefits the offense, including Kupp.
Week 16 at Seattle
Kupp had a rough outing last week against the New York Jets as he caught all five of his targets for 39 yards. That makes back-to-back games for Kupp with five catches on five targets, not the most encouraging stat for a normally consistent WR2.
Week 16 brings the Seattle Seahawks who currently rank 18th in aFPA to WRs this season. Kupp caught 5-of-7 targets for 50 yards during their Week 10 contest, so fantasy managers should take solace in knowing Kupp has had plenty of looks against this defense before. Unlike other weeks, Kupp’s decline in production has him more on the low-end WR2 spectrum in the fantasy title games.
Week 15 vs New York Jets
Kupp had a respectable performance last week against the New England Patriots as he caught all five of his targets for 33 yards and one touchdown. Kupp salvaged what would otherwise have been a disastrous performance catching his third score of the season, however, the entire passing game took a back seat to Cam Akers’ breakout performance.
Kupp will have a great opportunity to rebound this week against the New York Jets who rank 31st in aFPA to WRs this season. Kupp has been a reliable WR2 all season and managers should continue to trust him a solid WR2 this week in the semifinals of the fantasy football playoffs.
Week 14 vs New England
Kupp rebounded nicely from his Week 12 debacle as he caught 8-of-9 targets for 73 yards last week against the Arizona Cardinals. Kupp has been mostly reliable for fantasy managers this year as he ranks as the WR20 in PPR leagues while only having two touchdowns on the season.
Kupp will face a stiff matchup in Week 14 as the New England Patriots rank third in aFPA to WRs this season. In addition to the Patriots’ strong secondary, fantasy managers should take into consideration the type of game Jared Goff might have with the consistent pressure he will be facing. This might be a sneaky Kupp game if the ball needs to come out quick and the targets out of the slot might be greater than in other games. At any rate, keep Kupp as a middling WR2 in this matchup.
strong>Week 13 at Arizona
After having his best game of the season in Week 11, Kupp followed that up with his worst game of the year last week against the Niners as he caught 2-of-5 targets for 41 yards. In what was already going to be a tough matchup, Kupp also had to endure atrocious QB play by Jared Goff. After weeks of seeing an ample number of targets, Kupp finally had a dud and the timing for his fantasy managers could not have been worse.
Week 13 brings a serious opportunity to rebound as the Arizona Cardinals are ranked 25th in aFPA to WRs this season. Expect Kupp to see his usual workload in this one and be as productive as ever, as he should be looking at high-end WR2 numbers for the fantasy regular-season finale.
Week 12 vs San Francisco
Kupp had another strong game last week against the Bucs as he caught 11-of-13 targets for 145 yards. Kupp had a highlight-reel play on a short route as his crisp route running had CB Carlton Davis turned inside out. Over the past three games, Kupp has totaled 40 targets, the most of any WR in any three-game stretch this season, and is once again becoming Goff’s most trusted weapon.
Week 12 brings a matchup with San Francisco, a team in which Kupp had his worst game against this season where he caught two balls for 11 yards. The thing to remember about that Week 6 matchup is that Kupp saw nine targets, so his opportunities will be plentiful. Kupp should be viewed as a WR2 in this one as he’ll see plenty of targets in a competitive game.
Week 11 at Tampa Bay
After an incredible 20-target game before the bye week, Kupp had a solid WR3 game as he turned his seven targets into five receptions for 50 yards. Kupp outgained Robert Woods 50-33, however, both took a back seat to receiving leader Josh Reynolds. Kupp has remained steady most of the season and been at the very least a rock-solid WR2.
Kupp will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11 who are ranked 12th in aFPA to WRs this season. In a game that should see the Rams down throughout, Kupp will make a trustworthy WR3 in this one.
Week 10 vs Seattle
Kupp had one of his best games of the season before last week’s bye, as he saw a season-high 20 targets which he turned into 11 receptions for 110 yards. With the Rams in comeback mode, Jared Goff locked onto Kupp to give Los Angeles a fighting chance. Kupp has produced reliable WR3 numbers throughout the season with a few blowup WR1/2 spots scattered throughout.
Taking on the Seahawks in Week 10, who are ranked dead last in aFPA to WRs, Kupp is primed for another blowup game. With a struggling secondary with its weakest point coming in the slot, keep Kupp as a strong WR2 in a game that should turn into a shootout quickly.
Week 8 at Miami
Last week’s game against the Bears saw Kupp catch all six of his targets 43 yards and he chipped in the running game as he had one carry for 16 yards. As it has gone all season, the combination of a diverse passing attack combined with a heavy running game leaves Kupp and Robert Woods dependent on touchdowns to produce numbers outside of the WR3 realm.
Week 8’s matchup against Miami has Kupp squaring off against the 12th ranked defense in aFPA to WRs this season. With Miami’s poor rushing defense, managers should expect a low-target day for the WRs as the RBs takeover in this one. Kupp is WR3 in this one.
Week 7 vs Chicago
Kupp has his worst game of the season last week against the 49ers as he only caught three passes for 11 yards. Even though those stats are season-low, he tied his season-high in targets with nine, but it was a difficult matchup, nonetheless. We have seen from both Kupp and Robert Woods this season, where if they do not score a touchdown, their receptions and yards are only sustainable to make them WR3s.
Week 7 will be a tough spot for Kupp to rebound as Chicago boasts the 3rd aFPA defense against WRs this season. Kupp and the Rams offense will be in for a difficult matchup against the Bears, so owners so should temper expectations for Kupp as he is looking as WR3 in this one.
