Week 6 at San Francisco
Kupp saw eight targets last week against Washington which he turned into five receptions for 66 yards. After consecutive games with a touchdown, Kupp failed to reach the endzone in this one, yet he remained the target in leader amongst the rest of the receiving group. The latter has been true all season, however, because how much the ball is being spread out both through the air and on the ground, Kupp’s ceiling is capped. His matchup this week against San Francisco and the 17th ranked defense in aFPA to WRs should see be another one for Kupp. However, without the target volume, Kupp will remain a touchdown-dependent WR2.
Week 5 at Washington
Kupp finished as the Rams leading receiver last week against the Giants as he turned his seven targets into five receptions for 69 yards and one touchdown. In what was already shaping up to be a dud for Kupp, he broke loose for a 55-yard catch-and-run touchdown late in the fourth quarter, salvaging what would have been his worst game of the season. Kupp had the same number of targets as Robert Woods, but he saw fewer snaps, which has been the norm all season.
With Jared Goff spreading the ball around, Kupp has consistently remained the most productive Rams receiver this season, making his Week 5 matchup against Washington one that should keep in the high-end WR2 conversation.
Week 3 at Buffalo
Kupp had a better showing in Week 2 than in the season opener as he finished with five catches for 81 yards to go along with 19 rushing yards. There wasn’t much in the passing attack for Rams in this one as Tyler Higbee was the focal point for the offense, but the good thing is that Kupp was more involved throughout than the previous week. Still working out of the slot, Kupp is going to draw easier matchups in against an elite Buffalo defense, which will make him the more desirable option in the is Rams passing game. We like Kupp as an upside WR3 in this Week 3 contest.
Week 2 at Philadelphia
Fresh off signing a lucrative contract extension, Kupp turned in an uninspired performance Week 1 as he finished with four catches for 40 yards on five targets. The good thing is he was only behind Robert Woods in targets (8) and was on the field for almost 85% of the snaps. Continuing to work out of the slot, Kupp is in a prime position for a rebound game against the Philadelphia Eagles who gave up 50 yards on just three catches to Washington slot receiver Steven Sims Jr. If Kupp continues to see heavy work out of the slot, expect to have his first big game of the new season, making him a solid WR2 with plenty of upside.
Week 1 vs. Dallas
2019’s WR4 has an interesting road ahead of him. Kupp was on an absolute tear the first half of last season and it appeared he would be running away with the overall WR1 title. However, an offensive scheme change midway through the season had him as the team’s third option behind Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee. However, that did not mean Kupp was not productive as he had one touchdown in each of the last five games of the season, including a Week 15 matchup against Dallas. Kupp should work out of the slot a lot in this game, a position Dallas has struggled with recently, making Kupp a solid WR2 in the season opener.
Fantasy Upside
Last season was by far Cooper Kupp’s best season as his 94 receptions for 1161 yards and 10 touchdowns were all career-bests. Kupp was one of the best WRs to own in fantasy before his Week 9 bye as he had five games in that eight-game span with over 100 yards including one for a season-best 220 yards right before the bye. However, immediately after that, his usage took a steep decline as the offense moved away from their signature three-WR sets to heavier two-TE set to help quell their offensive line woes. Even though Kupp’s usage was not the same, he scored a touchdown in each of the last five games, still proving his ability to be productive in any version of this Ram’s offense.
Fantasy Downside
Despite Kupp's WR4 finish in half-PPR leagues last year, there were plenty of red flags that should be concerning for 2020. Kupp seemingly took a back seat to Tyler Higbee towards the end of the season as their two-TE set proved to beneficial to the entire offense—often being benched throughout the game by Sean McVay. The team’s willingness to trade away Brandin Cooks further solidifies their stance on moving away from the 3-wide receiver set that brought Kupp so much success.
2020 Bottom Line
It will be interesting to see how this LA Rams offensive breaks down, as pending which way they decide to structure their offense is the deciding factor if Kupp is in store for another high-end WR1 season or a low-end WR3. We have Kupp ranked 12th amongst WRs and his current ADP in 12-team leagues has him going at the end of the third round. Kupp has always been incredibly productive when targeted, however, the number of targets he will get in 2020 might be too big of an unknown to take him as early as he is going.
Week 17 vs Arizona Cardinals
Cooper Kupp is riding a four-game touchdown streak heading into Week 17, despite a high-variance snap share over that timeframe. Despite a number of disappointing fantasy weeks in the middle of the season that followed his white-hot start to the season, Kupp currently ranks as the WR6 for 2019 and will finish the season with career-highs in targets, yards, and touchdowns.
Kupp may see a lower-than-normal snap share since the outcome of this week's Cardinals/Rams game won't have much meaningful influence on the Rams' future prospects, but he's not dealing with any injuries and should still see enough volume to put up useful fantasy stats for redraft leagues with a Week 17 championship. Kupp's underwhelming yardage totals of late should almost certainly ensure a low ownership percentage in DFS, but at $6,800 on DraftKings and $7,400 on FanDuel, there are better wide receiver values available.
Week 16 at San Francisco 49ers
Cooper Kupp's dominant first half of the 2019 season is a distant memory, as his decent-but-unspectacular second half continued with a WR26 finish in Week 15. Kupp has caught every one of his last 16 targets over the previous 3 games, and he's also scored a touchdown in each of those matchups. That's made Kupp an extremely consistent fringe-WR2, cold comfort for fantasy owners hoping they'd landed a high-end WR1.
The Rams travel to San Francisco to face a 49ers defense with an aFPA to wide receivers that ranks 3rd in the NFL. Kupp lines up in the slot for the majority of his snaps, where he'll see plenty of coverage from 49ers cornerback D.J. Reed, which should be a challenge for Kupp, but it's not a reason to stay away from him. It appears as though his 29% snap share in Week 14 was just an aberration, as he bounced back with a 92% snap share last week. Kupp should see enough target volume to again make him a fairly safe bet as a WR2.
Week 15 at Dallas Cowboys
Cooper Kupp finished as the WR28 for Week 14, which weren't the WR1 numbers I expected, nor even quite WR2 numbers, but his 12.5 fantasy points shouldn't have torpedoed too many fantasy teams. We're a long way from Kupp's repeated WR1 outings, and his 12.2% pre-bye touch rate. His touch rate since Week 9 has dropped to 7.5%, but he remains healthy and always capable of a big week.
Kupp faces the best cornerback matchup among the Rams' starting receiving trio against Cowboys slot cornerback Jourdan Lewis, and his owners should hope this equates to more looks after weeks of being out-targeted by Robert Woods. Dallas has been exploited by opposing slot receivers recently, with the likes of Marvin Jones, Julian Edelman, Cole Beasley all scoring between 11.7 and 20.0 fantasy points against them. Kupp should return high-end WR2 numbers this week.
Week 14 at Seattle Seahawks
Cooper Kupp came very close to a return to his WR1 ways last week, finishing as the WR16 with 65 yards and a touchdown on six receptions. A matchup with the Cardinals' sieve-like passing defense certainly didn't hurt, but Kupp was out-targeted by both Robert Woods and tight end Tyler Higbee. Through Week 14, Kupp has the second-highest offensive snap share among Rams wide receivers at 87%, and his 0.28 PPR points per snap lead the group.
Kupp faces the Seahawks in Week 14 in a game that Vegas projects to be among the highest-scoring of the week. The Seahawks rank 18th in aFPA to wide receivers and ninth in aFPA to running backs, which further indicates plenty of opportunity for Kupp. Kupp also draws the most favorable cornerback matchup among Rams receivers against Akeem King, who took over slot cornerback duties from recently-released Jamar Taylor. This might be Kupp's final stress-free start of the fantasy playoffs with matchups against the Cowboys and 49ers incoming, but for Week 14 he's a solid start as a WR1.
