Week 5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Chris Godwin was the odd man out last week as Mike Evans and Antonio Brown each saw 10+ targets. Godwin was still pretty productive, though, finishing 3-55 on five targets. His touchdown-a-game streak snapped, but that's not too surprising considering the Bucs had just one offensive touchdown all game in Week 4. It was a down game for Godwin, but 55 yards is a nice floor. He should improve this week in a decent matchup against the Dolphins. He should be viewed as a strong WR2 against Miami.
Week 4 at New England Patriots
Chris Godwin has scored a touchdown in every game this season, although Week 3's was a bit unconventional as he scored on the ground. Godwin was still productive as a wideout, though, finishing 6-74 on seven targets. Godwin's now had at least 60 yards and a score in every game, making him a pretty reliable option when it comes to fantasy. Although he gets a tough matchup this week against the Patriots. New England has allowed the third-fewest (tied) receptions (30) to wide receivers this season, and the seventh-fewest receiving yards. But it's hard to be too concerned given Godwin's production so far. We like him as a strong WR2 play this week against the Patriots.
Week 3 at Los Angeles Rams
Chris Godwin saw a dramatic decrease in targets from Week 1 to Week 2 (14 to 5), but he was still productive, finishing 4-62-1. As we head into Week 3, there's some good news and bad news for Godwin. The good news is Antonio Brown could be inactive, which likely means more targets for Godwin. The bad news is it's a tough matchup against the Rams. We wouldn't expect Godwin to struggle too much in the matchup, though. In fact, he played well against the Rams last season, finishing 7-53-1 on 10 targets. We like him as a strong WR2 play in Week 3.
Week 2 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Chris Godwin was highly productive in Week 1, seeing a team-high 14 targets which he converted into a 9-105-1 stat line. He also played nearly the entire game, only missing a single snap on offense. It's hard to see him consistently see 14 targets a game in this offense, but this proves in certain matchups that Godwin is set to have a few explosive games throughout the year. He should be in for another strong outing in Week 2 in a favorable matchup against the Falcons. We like Godwin as a low-end WR1 play this week.
Week 1 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Chris Godwin's production dropped off by 25 yards per game from 2019 into 2020, and that can be tied to Antonio Brown's arrival. But while Godwin may not be the dominating factor he was two years ago, he's still an extremely talented receiver in a high-powered offense with Tom Brady at quarterback. We like him as a strong WR2 in Week 1, assuming he's healthy enough to play. Godwin was absent from the injury report on Monday, but then suddenly appeared on the report Tuesday with a quad issue. His health will be worth monitoring heading into Thursday's game.
Fantasy Upside
Chris Godwin averaged seven targets per game during the regular season and eight targets per game in the postseason, a healthy amount considering he’s competing with Mike Evans and Antonio Brown. If he plays the full season, that’d equate to around 120 targets in 2021. He missed some games due to injury last year but was productive in the 12 games he was active, averaging 70 yards per game with seven total scores. He’ll return as the No. 2 receiver in a pass-happy offense led by Tom Brady.
Fantasy Downside
While Godwin had a solid season last year, his production took a hit from the year prior. Godwin averaged 25 yards less per game and set a career-low with 12.9 yards per catch. A lot of that was due to the presence of Antonio Brown, who joined midseason (Godwin averaged 11.8 PPG (half-PPR) with Brown in the lineup compared to 13.2 PPG without, including playoffs). Brown returns in 2021, but his impact will last a full season now. The Bucs also added Giovani Bernard, and get back O.J. Howard who will both eat into Godwin’s production as well.
2021 Bottom Line
Godwin is an exceptional talent, and we saw that with his productive 2019 season. But fantasy owners shouldn’t expect 2019 production from Godwin moving forward. Instead, fantasy owners should expect 2020 production from Godwin in 2021, assuming he stays healthy. This means around 70-80 yards per game instead of 90-100 yards, and likely fewer touchdowns. We have Godwin ranked in the WR20 to WR25 range.
Week 17 vs. Atlanta Falcons
All of the Bucs receivers got to feast last week. Chris Godwin finished with a solid 5-84-1 game on nine targets. Godwin has 50+ receiving yards in seven of his 11 games this season, with touchdowns in five. It's a decent consistency for Godwin, especially considering how many mouths there are to feed in this offense. He's not nearly as productive as he was a year ago, in fact, 30.9 yards less per game productive, but he's still a strong WR2. We like him as a low-end WR1 in Week 17 as he gets a favorable matchup against the Falcons (and some other top-tier WRs will be resting). Godwin finished 4-36-1 against the Falcons in Week 15, although we're expecting him to be more productive this time around.
Week 16 at Detroit Lions
Chris Godwin finished 4-36-1 on five targets last week. He had the fewest amount of targets between the four main receiving threats, but still remained productive. Although it's not great to see Godwin finish with just 36 yards in a game where Tom Brady threw for 390. However, with so many receiving threats in this offense, someone is bound to have a not-so-great game every now and then. Godwin is in a good position to succeed this week in a favorable matchup against the Lions (No. 23 aFPA). We like Godwin as a strong WR2 play in Week 16.
Week 15 at Atlanta Falcons
Chris Godwin perhaps suffered the most from the Bucs' lack of a passing attack last week, finishing 2-25 on three targets (all season lows). Before last week, Godwin's season-low on targets was six, so to see just three targets was a real shock. We'd expect that to increase this week given the matchup, and the fact Tampa will be without Ronald Jones. Expect more passes, which means more targets for Godwin and the rest of the Bucs wideouts. We like Godwin as a WR2 play in Week 15 against a Falcons defense allowing the second-most receiving yards to WRs this season.
Week 14 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Chris Godwin had another catch-happy game in his last outing, finishing 8-97. Godwin is averaging 6.1-70.3 this season, and has been mostly consistent despite battling injuries. Speaking of which, Godwin missed some practice this week as he had surgery to remove pins from his injured finger. He should be good to go, however, and we're expecting another catch-happy game from Godwin against the Vikings. We like him as a WR2 in PPR formats and more in the high-WR3 range in standard.
