Week 7 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Chris Godwin finished 6-77 on seven targets last week as he's now put up his two best performances of the season in back-to-back games. It's a small sample size of five games, but so far when Mike Evans has a good game, Godwin doesn't, and vice versa. As for Week 7, Godwin will draw a tough matchup against the Falcons who are 3rd in aFPA to WRs this season. Godwin will obviously have more appeal in PPR formats as he's finished with at least five receptions in four of his five games this season. He should be viewed as a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 option this week.
Week 6 vs. Detroit Lions
With Mike Evans only playing in 37% of the offensive snaps in Week 4, Baker Mayfield finally turned to Chris Godwin who led the team with a season-high 11 targets. Godwin turned those targets into production, finishing with eight receptions for 114 yards, both season highs. Evans is still dealing with a hamstring injury and missed a practice session this week, so there's a chance Godwin becomes the main guy again in Week 6. To add onto that, it'll be in a favorable matchup against the Lions who are 27th in aFPA to WRs. If Evans is active, Godwin should be viewed more in the low-end WR2 range.
Week 4 at New Orleans Saints
Through three games this season, Chris Godwin has finished 5-51, 5-58 and 3-32. The difference in going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield appears to have impacted Godwin the most as Tampa Bay isn't throwing the ball as much as they did while Brady was under center. Godwin doesn't appear to be a player who is going to explode with a monster game any time soon, but in PPR formats he at least seems like a safe bet to get double digits most weeks. That's around what we have projected for Godwin in Week 4 as he faces a fairly tough Saints defense. Godwin should be viewed as a solid WR3 option this week.
Week 3 vs Philadelphia Eagles
Chris Godwin matched Mike Evans in Week 2 for a team high of eight targets. Although Godwin wasn't as productive, finishing 5-58. In Week 1, Godwin finished with a similar stat line of 5-51. Our projections for Week 3 have him finishing with similar numbers against the Eagles. Godwin isn't seeing quite as much production with Baker Mayfield as he did with Tom Brady, but he's hit double digits in PPR formats each week, which is still a safe floor owner. He should be viewed as a solid WR2 option for Week 3.
Week 2 vs. Chicago Bears
Chris Godwin saw six targets in Week 1, which was second-most on the team behind Mike Evans (10). Outside of a game where he left early due to injury last year, Godwin's six targets in Week 1 matches his season-low in targets from 2022. Godwin was still decently productive, though, finishing with five catches for 51 yards. Godwin gets a fairly tough matchup this week against the Bears where he should be viewed as a WR2.
Week 1 at Minnesota Vikings
Chris Godwin benefitted a lot last season from Tom Brady's NFL record for pass attempts in a season. In the 14 games after returning from injury, Godwin saw at least 10 targets eight times with an average of 9.9. We're still betting on Godwin being a reception-heavy player, but it's hard to imagine he'll put up the same production as he did a season ago. But he does draw a favorable Week 1 matchup vs. the Vikings, who gave up the 2nd-most average fantasy points to wide receivers a year ago. In fact, the Vikings gave up the most total receptions to WRs last season, which bodes well for Godwin. He should be viewed as a solid WR2 option.
Fantasy Upside
Chris Godwin was surprisingly able to play in Week 1 last season after tearing his ACL in Week 15 of the 2021 season. He missed some time at the start of the season due to a different injury, but when he returned he was pretty dominant. Godwin saw at least six targets in all 14 games after returning from injury, including at least 10 targets in eight of those games. He also topped 50 receiving yards in all but two games in that stretch, with at least five receptions in every game. That essentially came out to double digits every week in fantasy, which is incredible consistency. He should maintain a similar target-heavy role heading into 2023.
Fantasy Downside
The obvious downside to Godwin’s value heading into this season is the change at quarterback, going from Tom Brady to likely Baker Mayfield. Godwin managed to see a lot of targets last season, but that’s because Brady led the league in pass attempts with 733. In fact, that was an NFL record for pass attempts in a season. It’s hard to see the Bucs leaning that hard into the passing attack once again, which will no doubt lead to less production for Godwin. It’s also worth noting Godwin has never been a strong scoring threat, failing to hit double digit receiving touchdowns in any of his six seasons.
2023 Bottom Line
Godwin is still a very talented player, and should be heavily targeted still, although his numbers will likely be down from a season ago. Godwin’s high-volume role suits him better for PPR formats than for standard leagues, especially given how he doesn’t find the endzone consistently. A lot of Godwin’s value is tied to how well Mayfield (or possibly Trask) ends up playing this season. But it’s hard to imagine Godwin having the same success he had under Brady. Godwin should be viewed around the WR30 range.
Week 17 vs. Carolina Panthers
Chris Godwin was once again a reception monster last week, finishing 8-63 on 10 targets. In the 12 games where Godwin has been healthy, he's seen 10 or more targets in eight of them, 50 or more receiving yards in 10 of them and five or more receptions in ALL of them. He's just been an incredibly reliable option, especially in PPR formats. This week he faces a favorable matchup against the Panthers (27th aFPA). When he faced Carolina earlier in the season, Godwin finished 7-43 on 13 targets. He should be viewed as a WR1 option in PPR formats and more of a WR2 in standard leagues.
Week 16 at Arizona Cardinals
Chris Godwin had another good game last week, finishing 8-88-1 on eight targets. Godwin has now caught a touchdown in three of his last five games. And in the two games he didn't score, he had one touchdown called back due to holding, and had another bounce off his hands. In other words, Godwin was close to having a score in five straight games. Godwin should continue to see plenty of targets on those shorter type of receptions. He gets an OK matchup this week against the Cardinals (18th aFPA). He should be viewed as a low-end WR1 in PPR formats and more of a WR2 choice in standard leagues.
Week 15 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Chris Godwin saw nine targets last week, finishing with five receptions for 54 yards. He nearly had a touchdown but it oddly bounced off his hands and landed in the arms of teammate Russell Gage instead. That now makes two games in a row where Godwin nearly had a touchdown after a penalty brought one back in Week 13. If both of those scores counted, then Godwin would have a score in four straight games. Obviously they didn't, but it's at least promising that Godwin is getting red zone looks. Godwin should continue to be a PPR hog as he faces the Bengals in Week 15. Although interestingly enough, Cincinnati has given up the fewest total receptions to wide receivers this season. Still, Godwin should be viewed as a lower-end WR1 option in PPR formats this week.
