2022 Fantasy Upside
Among WRs to play at least 10 games, Chris Godwin finished as WR10, WR15, and WR2 in average scoring (half-PPR) the past three seasons. He saw some of his numbers dip with the arrival of Antonio Brown, but AB is gone now, and so is Rob Gronkowski. But Tom Brady is back, so Tampa Bay remains one of the league’s most explosive offenses. With Brown gone, we wouldn’t be surprised if Godwin’s target share increases compared to the previous two seasons. And Godwin was already a target monster, averaging 9.1 targets per game last season. When healthy, Godwin is capable of putting up WR1 numbers in this offense.
2022 Fantasy Downside
The obvious (and really only) downside to Godwin is the fact he’s recovering from a torn ACL and MCL. Not only that, but he suffered the injury in Week 15 of last season, meaning it’ll be a while before he returns. He’s expected to start the season on the PUP list, but the question is how long he’ll be out. A PUP list designation would be a bare minimum four week absence, but it’s likely he misses more than that. The Bucs brought Godwin back on a long-term deal (3-year, $60M), so they won’t want to rush their WR back. Tampa Bay will also want Godwin more for the stretch run of the season rather than the start.
2022 Bottom Line
Godwin is one of the worst value picks when you compare his current ADP to 4for4’s positional rankings. He’s around the 25th WR off the board, but he’s closer to WR60 in our rankings. There’s no question about his talent when he’s healthy. When Godwin returns, he’ll likely put up WR1 numbers with nearly 10 targets a game. But at his current ADP, you’re passing on a lot of talented WRs who are going to play the entire year. You’ll have to feel really comfortable with letting Godwin sit on your team’s IR for the early part of the season. It’s too difficult to recommend drafting Godwin at his current ADP.
Week 15 vs. New Orleans Saints
Tom Brady just keeps throwing the ball to Chris Godwin as the WR has an absurd 32 targets in the last two games. And it's a working strategy as Godwin has posted back-to-back 100-yard games. Godwin finished 15-143 in Week 13 and 10-105 in Week 14. He didn't score a touchdown in either game, but fantasy owners in PPR leagues probably don't mind. We wouldn't be shocked if Godwin sees 10+ targets again this week in a favorable matchup vs. the Saints. Godwin played well against New Orleans earlier in the year, finishing 8-140-1 on 12 targets. Given Godwin's recent production and his previous success against New Orleans, he should be trusted as a strong WR1 play this week.
Week 14 @ Buffalo Bills
Chris Godwin had an absurd game last week, finishing with 15 receptions for 143 yards. It's the sixth-most receptions in a single game (not including repeats). It's quite the turnaround from his 4-24 performance just one game prior. We wouldn't expect that many receptions again in Week 14, especially in a tough matchup against the Bills. In fact, Buffalo has allowed the fewest receptions to wide receivers all year. But with Antonio Brown sidelined, Godwin is the main receiver to eat up those shorter routes, so he should still get plenty of targets. We wouldn't expect a monster game from Godwin given the tough matchup, but he should still be viewed as a WR1 heading into Week 14.
Week 13 at Atlanta Falcons
Chris Godwin set a season-low in receiving yards last week, finishing 4-24 on five targets. To make matters worse, he lost a fumble which essentially wiped away the minimal points he earned in receiving yards. It was an unfortunate down game for Godwin, but those are bound to happen throughout the year. We wouldn't expect it to continue, especially in a favorable matchup this week against the Falcons. Atlanta has given up the 6th-most average fantasy points to opposing receivers. Godwin had a strong outing against Atlanta earlier in the year, finishing 4-62-1 on five targets. And that was with Antonio Brown still in the lineup. With Brown set to miss time due to a suspension, some of those targets will head Godwin's way. Godwin should be trusted as a strong WR1 in Week 13.
Week 12 at Indianapolis Colts
Chris Godwin hauled in all six of his targets last week to finish 6-65-1. Godwin has been pretty productive with Antonio Brown being out of the lineup. Brown left in Week 6 and in the four games since, Godwin has scored a touchdown in three of them while averaging 7.3 receptions for 93.3 yards. Brown has been sidelined in practice this week, so we'd expect him to miss Week 12. That sets up Godwin to have another productive game in a favorable matchup vs. the Colts, who have given up the most receiving touchdowns (17) to wide receivers this year. Godwin should be viewed as a strong WR1 play this week, assuming Brown is out. Even if Brown returns, Godwin will still be a strong start.
Week 11 vs. New York Giants
Chris Godwin played through injury last week and turned in a solid performance, finishing 7-57-0 on eight targets. He's now had at least seven receptions in four of his last five games, making him a very valuable start in PPR formats. Godwin has benefitted from Antonio Brown being out of the lineup. Brown should be inactive again this week. Godwin is still limited in practice with a foot injury, but since he was active last week, we'd expect him to play again this week. He gets an OK matchup against the Giants where he should continue to put up big numbers as he has in recent weeks. Godwin will be a strong WR1 play in Week 11.
Week 10 @ Washington Football Team
Chris Godwin looked amazing in his last outing in Week 8, finishing 8-140-1 on 12 targets. It was his second consecutive 100-yard game and his third such game of the season. However, Godwin is dealing with a foot injury that has kept him out of practice so far this week. Reports indicate he'll be a game-time decision, which is unfortunate because this is a great matchup against Washington. Even if Godwin is active, there's a chance he'll be limited because of his injury. Still, with Godwin putting up back-to-back 100-yard games and facing a Washington defense that's allowed the second-most average fantasy points to wide receivers, fantasy owners should feel compelled to start Godwin assuming he's active. He should be viewed as a WR2 if active. If he can't go, then Tyler Johnson becomes a very attractive fantasy option.
Week 8 at New Orleans Saints
As expected, Chris Godwin got a slight bump in production thanks to Antonio Brown's absence. He finished 8-111-1 on 11 targets, setting a season-high in receiving yards. We expect another productive game from Godwin this week in a favorable matchup vs. the Saints, who are 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. Brown is expected to sit out again, so it wouldn't be a stretch to see Godwin get 10+ targets again this week. He can be trusted as a strong WR1 play in Week 8.
Week 7 vs. Chicago Bears
Chris Godwin had his worst game of the season last week, finishing 5-43, setting a season-low in receiving yards. While 5-43 isn't great, it's also not bad for a floor. Even when Godwin isn't able to put up huge numbers, he's still highly involved in the offense. We'd expect a somewhat similar game from Godwin this week in an OK matchup against the Bears, who are 18th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to receivers. But we like Godwin's production to go up quite a bit this week after Antonio Brown was ruled out with an injury. Godwin gets bumped up to a WR1 play in Week 7 with Brown out.
Week 6 at Philadelphia Eagles
Chris Godwin saw a team-high 11 targets last week, finishing 7-70. Godwin hasn't been dominant this year like he was in 2019 when he averaged 95 yards per game. But he's been very consistent, finishing with at least 50 yards every game. He's averaging 5.8 receptions for 73.2 yards, and has scored in three out of five games. He may struggle a bit this week in a tough matchup against the Eagles, who have allowed the fewest total receptions to wide receivers so far this season, and the third-fewest receiving yards. Receivers as a whole are only averaging 121 yards against the Eagles, which split between Godwin, Mike Evans and Antonio Brown would leave about 40 yards each. Obviously, the NFL doesn't work like that exactly, but it's another way of saying this matchup is tough. Still, the Bucs offense has so many weapons that it's tough to contain them all. We still like Godwin to reach his 70-yard average, making him a low-end WR1 play vs. the Eagles.
