Week 2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 1 did little to show the league that Baker Mayfield has improved since his disastrous 2019 season. He looked uncomfortable in the pocket and was inaccurate downfield, leading to a poor showing in both fantasy and real football. Since the start of last season, Mayfield has only thrown 23 touchdowns compared to 22 interceptions and has not been able to establish any consistent connection with Odell Beckham Jr. This week's matchup against the Bengals is nothing to be intimidated by, but Mayfield cannot be started in any single-QB format at the moment.
Week 1 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Baker Mayfield enters Week 1 looking to bounce back from a disastrous sophomore campaign in 2019. He will have to start off against the vaunted Ravens, a strong defense but one that Mayfield lit up for 342 yards in Week 4 last year. Mayfield will likely have the benefit of healthy volume in this one with the Browns listed as eight point underdogs. The question then becomes efficiency. Mayfield was terribly inefficient last year, but new Head Coach Kevin Stefanski and heavier use of play action should result in improvement in that area. Mayfield is a QB2 for Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
The sentiment surrounding Baker Mayfield’s sophomore season is overwhelmingly negative and for good reason. Mayfield regressed from his rookie performance in virtually every predictive statistical category and the eye-test, finishing 26th among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. Fantasy players are justified in being skeptical of Mayfield in 2020, but there are reasons to expect a bounce back from last year’s frustration. Despite last season’s disappointments, Mayfield did excel in two areas: the play-action game and passing out of sets with multiple tight ends. Mayfield’s passer rating skyrocketed from 68.9 to 102.5 when passing out of play-action. He posted a similarly high passer rating (100.5) when passing out of 12 personnel. Fortunately for Mayfield, his proficiencies as a passer appear to mesh well with his new coaching staff. New Head Coach Kevin Stefanski coordinated a Vikings offense last season that finished top five in the league in both play-action rate and utilization of 12 personnel. It would be hard to fathom Mayfield not experiencing some positive regression with a coaching staff more suited to his strengths. Combine this regression with the abundance of talent surrounding him and there is reason to be optimistic Mayfield can finish as a solid QB2 this season.
Fantasy Downside
As alluded to above, Mayfield’s 2019 performance contains an abundance of red flags. After throwing a rookie-record 27 touchdown passes against only 14 interceptions in 2018, Mayfield managed 22 touchdowns against 21 interceptions in 2019. His interception rate spiked from 2.9% to 3.9% while his touchdown rate dropped from 5.6% to 4.1%. Mayfield also took a hit in the efficiency department with his yards per attempt dropping from 7.7 to 7.2. Some of this negative regression can be explained by Freddie Kitchens’ discombobulated offensive philosophy and injuries to crucial targets such as Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry, but Mayfield displayed poor decision-making, limited mobility, and inconsistent accuracy from the pocket throughout last season. Mayfield is still only 25 years old and should be given a long leash as a former first overall draft pick, but 2019 raised plenty of concerns about his ability to be a consistent fantasy producer and drafting him in 2020 is a bet that last year was his floor.
2020 Bottom Line
Mayfield presents too many red flags to be drafted as a fantasy starter in leagues that start only one quarterback. His performance through two seasons has been wildly inconsistent and there are always questions about how a young quarterback will work with a new coaching staff. However, he presents enough upside to be drafted as a QB2 and could surprise if there is immediate chemistry with Stefanski.
Week 17 at Cincinnati Bengals
Baker Mayfield wasn't terrible last week, but he wasn't exactly good, either. He finished with just 192 yards while throwing two touchdowns and one interception. He has five games with multiple touchdown passes this season and 10 with one or less. He's thrown at least one interception in every game but three, including four multiple interception games. Long story short: he's been bad this year. He gets a great matchup this week against the Bengals, but he surprisingly struggled against them just a few weeks ago when he had no touchdowns, two interceptions and 192 yards (he did have a rushing score). He's a below-average option in Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Baker Mayfield started the season terribly, but has slightly turned things around in recent weeks. His only four multi-touchdown passing games have come in the last six games. Unfortunately, his success will likely come to a stop this week in a brutal matchup against the Ravens. Oddly enough, Mayfield's best game earlier this year came against Baltimore when he finished with a season-high 342 passing yards. Don't expect that this week, however, as the Ravens defense has improved since then. Mayfield should be seen as one of the worst QB options this week.
Week 15 at Arizona Cardinals
Baker Mayfield struggled against the lowly Bengals last week in one of his worst games of the season. He had just 11 completions for 192 yards, no passing touchdowns and two interceptions (he did score on a rushing touchdown). It's been a down year for Mayfield who has 15 touchdown passes in 13 games with 18 turnovers. He should be able to turn things around this week in a favorable matchup against the Cardinals. Arizona has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season with a league-high 32 passing touchdowns. Despite his struggles, Mayfield has low-end QB1 value this week.
Week 14 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
After a string of three good games, Baker Mayfield regressed last week against the Steelers, finishing with 196 yards, one touchdown and two turnovers. This was his ninth game with one passing touchdown or less this season. He should be able to bounce back in Week 14 as he gets a great matchup against the Bengals who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. He's still a below-average option based on his performances so far this season. Also, we'd expect Cleveland to lean more on its ground game this week considering the Bengals have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to backs and the Browns have two good rushers. Also, Mayfield is dealing with a pair of injuries (right hand/ribs), but is expected to play.
Week 13 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Baker Mayfield had his best game of the season last week, but the performance comes with a slight asterisk as it was against the Dolphins. Still, Mayfield threw for 327 yards (second-highest of the season) for a season-high three touchdowns. He's now scored six touchdowns in his last two games (five passing, one rushing) as he starts to gain some fantasy relevancy. This week he gets what should be a tough matchup against the Steelers as Pittsburgh has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Mayfield scored three times against Pittsburgh just two weeks ago, but he had a season-low 193 passing yards in that game. Mayfield isn't a terrible option, but he's a below-average choice in Week 13.
Week 12 vs. Miami Dolphins
Baker Mayfield was OK last week, finishing with 193 passing yards, three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) and no turnovers. He's now had back-to-back games with multiple passing touchdowns, his only such games of the season. His "hot streak" should continue this week as he gets a great matchup against the lowly Dolphins. Miami has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, and the dream matchup makes Mayfield an appealing option. He enters low-end QB1 territory this week.
Week 11 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Baker Mayfield had one of his better games of the season last week, finishing with 238 passing yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. It was the only game all season where he's had more than one passing touchdown. It still wasn't a great performance, but at least he had some fantasy relevancy. This week he gets a tough matchup against the Steelers on a short week. Pittsburgh is allowing the seventh fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. With Mayfield's performance, and the bad matchup, the Browns QB should be viewed as a below-average option.
