Week 13 at Tennessee Titans
Baker Mayfield is a pressure-sensitive quarterback who depends on efficiency to be fantasy relevant as his team loves to run the ball as much as possible. Fortunately for Mayfield, Week 13 brings a matchup with the Titans' poor pass rush, which has pressured quarterbacks at a rate among the lowest in the league this season. The Titans also have issues on the back end, meaning Mayfield should have time to find open receivers when the Browns do decide to throw. Mayfield's lack of volume removes him from QB1 consideration, but he has some upside as a QB2 this week by virtue of the soft matchup.
Week 12 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Baker Mayfield gets a plush matchup against Jacksonville's weak defense in Week 12, but the Browns simply do no throw for enough passing volume for him to produce QB1 or even streaming-caliber numbers. The matchup does make Mayfield more interesting than usual. One of Mayfield's biggest issues is dealing with pressure, and the Jaguars struggle to rush the passer and will now be missing Josh Allen coming off the edge due to injury. Mayfield producing a viable fantasy performance is heavily dependent on him throwing multiple touchdowns, which is far from guaranteed with the Jaguars also being weak against the run and the Browns preferring to punish other teams between the tackles. Mayfield is a middling QB2 despite a soft matchup in Week 12.
Week 11 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Baker Mayfield will face off with a solid Eagles defense in Week 11 that has pressured opposing quarterbacks at a high rate in 2020. Mayfield is a pressure-sensitive quarterback who will still be missing Odell Beckham and whose team wants to run the ball whenever possible. Mayfield has only thrown 45 passes over the past two games, although it should be noted both of those games were heavily influenced by windy weather. There is more wind forecasted in Cleveland this weekend, but not at the level of the past two weeks. That being said, Mayfield's projected volume makes him unstartable in standard leagues and a low-end QB2 in deeper leagues.
Week 10 vs. Houston Texans
Baker Mayfield is off the COVID list and should be under center for Sunday's game against the Texans. Houston's run defense is atrocious, which lends itself to the Cleveland running attack dominating this game and Mayfield simply being asked to make spot throws and not turn the ball over. These concerns are bolstered by what is forecasted to be windy weather in Cleveland Sunday, with some predictions putting gusts over 40 MPH. That being said, the Browns should be able to score against Houston and Mayfield will be startable as a QB2 due to the soft matchup.
Week 8 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Baker Mayfield just lost Odell Beckham for the year but gets a matchup against the Raiders' 25th-ranked defense in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position in Week 8. Mayfield was only posting QB2 numbers before Beckham's injury and he cannot be expected to improve upon, or even maintain, his previous production without Cleveland's most explosive receiving option. The Browns will continue to deploy a run-heavy offense that will limit Mayfield's volume, and he is only averaging a little over 28 pass attempts per game through Week 7. The good matchup and Cleveland's improved offensive play of late keep Mayfield a QB2, but his projections have to be lowered following the loss of Beckham.
Week 7 at Cincinnati Bengals
Baker Mayfield looked terrible last week. He was inaccurate and bailed out of the pocket in the face of any pressure. Part of that could be attributed to his injured ribs, but Mayfield has continuously struggled to string together consistent performances for the last two seasons. Mayfield's outlook for Week 7 is better than last week as his ribs should be on the mend and the Bengals defense is much worse than the Pittsburgh unit that just harassed him throughout Week 6. Mayfield managed a solid game against the Bengals in Week 2 when he put up 219 yards and a pair of scores. Mayfield's rocky performance last week makes him a scary play in Week 7, but the matchup makes him a workable QB2.
Week 6 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Baker Mayfield put up his biggest yardage total of the season with 249 passing yards in Week 5 to go along with two touchdowns. He connected with Odell Backham and Jarvis Landry for a couple of deep passes, but also tossed a pair of interceptions to sour his overall fantasy line. Even in Mayfield's better performances, he still has not eliminated the mistakes that have made him a volatile quarterback in both real and fantasy football. Now Mayfield will face off with a vicious Pittsburgh defense that boasts one of the best pass rushes in the league and can cover in the secondary to boot. Mayfield's outlook is diminished by the loss of elite right guard Wyatt Teller, who would surely be useful in slowing down the Steelers' elite pass rushers. Mayfield's low volume and bad matchup make him a very risky fantasy play for Week 6, even in deep leagues.
Week 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Baker Mayfield was a game manager last week but it worked out fine as Cleveland's running game trampled a pathetic Dallas defense. Mayfield's 165 passing yards and two touchdowns is typical of what Cleveland wants out of him in their run-heavy scheme. The Browns' preferred playing style is to let their running backs move the ball downfield while Mayfield takes occasional shots off play action. Week 5 sets up as a tough matchup for Mayfield as the Colts boast a top-five passing defense by DVOA thorugh four weeks. This looks like another week where the Browns will lean on Kareem Hunt to produce offense while Mayfield simply tries to avoid costly mistakes. Game script may make Mayfield workable as a QB2, but that is his ceiling for Week 5.
Week 4 at Dallas Cowboys
Baker Mayfield will travel to Dallas this weekend to take on a Cowboys team that Russell Wilson just torched for 315 yards and five touchdowns. Expecting the same kind of performance from Mayfield is not advised, but the Cowboys secondary looks ripe for the taking and Mayfield does offer some upside this week. Dallas has been mediocre so far in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (19.1 per game), and is now dealing with multiple injuries in the secondary. Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry should find themselves open with some frequency on Sunday, and Dallas's lack of pass rush outside of the rehabilitated Aldon Smith has been disappointing to this point in the season. Mayfield is always a risky start simply because he hasn't been a consistent NFL player for over a year now, but the matchup and projected pace this week make him a viable QB2.
Week 3 vs. Washington Football Team
Even in a big day for the Cleveland offense, Baker Mayfield took a backseat to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in Week 2 as the Browns steamrolled the Bengals on Thursday night. Mayfield did have his best performance of the year by throwing for 219 yards and two scores, but he added an ugly interception and acted mostly as a game manager aside from a long touchdown to Odell Beckham. Now he gets a tough date with a fierce Washington front seven. The Washington Football Team has plenty of weaknesses, but the pass rush is not one of them and we have ample evidence of Mayfield's struggles under pressure. Even coming off a solid performance last week, Mayfield is not a starter in single quarterback leagues.
