Week 1 vs. Cleveland Browns
Baker Mayfield is coming off a tough season in Cleveland where he played hurt and finished with just 3,010 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. However, he had a 3,563-26-8 line in 2020 and led the Browns to the playoffs, so there’s reason to think a healthy season in Carolina could lead to similar numbers. He has excellent weapons around him in Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore.
Mayfield will start the season against a Browns defense that ranked ninth in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks last season. Expect a gutsy, heartfelt performance against his former team, likely culminating in a very satisfying victory for Mayfield and the Panthers. However, fantasy points may be at a premium against this pass rush and we have him ranked just outside QB2 territory. Sit him for this week, despite the massive revenge-game potential.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Baker Mayfield was finally granted his trade request after the Browns cast him aside in favor of Deshaun Watson. He joins a Panthers’ offense with more talent than he had in Cleveland, including the multi-dimensional Christian McCaffrey in the backfield. There may be an adjustment period for Mayfield arriving to the team late in the offseason, but he should be a massive upgrade at the position over what Carolina trotted out a year ago. He led the Browns to an 11-5 record behind a 26/8 TD/Int ratio just two years ago before playing through a dislocated non-throwing shoulder throughout 2021.
2022 Fantasy Downside
While I expect Mayfield to win the starting job over Sam Darnold, the team has said it’ll be an open competition, so there is risk he won’t start Week 1. More concerning is his lack of fantasy production. While he did have a magical 2020 season as an NFL quarterback, as a fantasy quarterback he was just QB17 that year. Mayfield has yet to throw for 4,000 yards in a season and hasn’t eclipsed 30 touchdowns. He doesn’t pad a whole lot of rushing yards onto his stats either, averaging 9.5 yards on 2.6 rushing attempts per game since entering the league – though he did score three rushing touchdowns in 2019.
2022 Bottom Line
Mayfield is virtually undraftable in 1QB leagues, but he presents some streaming upside in good matchups as bye week or injury-filler. Consider him a low-end QB2 option heading into the season, and he’ll likely continue to be a better real-life quarterback than fantasy one.
Week 17 at Steelers
Baker Mayfield is coming off a poor performance against the Packers, averaging only 6.2 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and four interceptions. Mayfield only has two Top-12 finishes in 13 games this season. The Browns are a run-heavy offense, which limits Mayfield's passing volume. We can expect more of the same against the Steelers this week.
The Steelers rank 14th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. This game has a 41-point total, so it projects to be low-scoring. There's absolutely no reason to even consider starting Mayfield in the fantasy finals. He's merely a desperation FLEX in SuperFlex leagues.
Week 16 at Packers
Baker Mayfield looks ready to return from COVID-19 in time to take on the Green Bay Packers. Mayfield isn't on the fantasy radar right now, as he currently ranks as QB26 in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks with at least 10 starts. The good news is that this projects as more of a pass-heavy game script with the Browns projected to play from behind.
The Packers rank 21st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, so Mayfield will have an opportunity to have a better game in this spot. However, there's no way you can trust him in the semifinals unless you're in desperate need of a quarterback in SuperFlex formats.
Week 14 vs. Ravens
Baker Mayfield comes off a much-needed bye week due to his myriad of injuries, set to face a Ravens defense for the second consecutive week. I expect a much better performance coming off the bye, especially against a pass-funnel defense that just lost its best cornerback in Marlon Humphrey.
The Ravens rank 25th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, so this is an exploitable matchup. Mayfield looks like a sneaky streamer in this spot, but there's a lot of risk here given that it's a run-heavy offense. I'd be more willing to go towards Mayfield in DFS tournaments as a contrarian play.
Week 12 at Ravens
Baker Mayfield continues to be hampered by injuries, as he's playing through an injured shoulder right now. He's also limited by playing in one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL. This makes him tough to consider as a streamer unless the matchup dictates a pass-heavy game script. It's possible that this is the case against an explosive Ravens offense. If Cleveland is forced to play from behind, perhaps we can see a better showing from Mayfield.
The Ravens rank 25th in Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points per Game, so the matchup is there for Mayfield. However, like Cleveland, Baltimore is run-heavy. Both teams also play at a slow pace. This makes it possible that we see a low-scoring game given the limited volume between these two teams. I'd look elsewhere if I needed a streamer. Save Mayfield for DFS Showdown slates.
Week 11 vs. Lions
Baker Mayfield had another dismal performance last week, completing 11-of-21 passes (52.4%) for 73 yards (3.5 Y/A) with one touchdown and one interception. He suffered a knee injury in the blowout loss to the Patriots, but he plans to play this week against the Lions. Mayfield is an underwhelming streamer, finishing in the Top-12 quarterbacks in only two games this season.
This is a good matchup against a Lions defense that ranks 16th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but there's always the risk of limited volume considering that the Browns are one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL. You also have to take into account that this could be a blowout, with the Browns as 10-point favorites. This makes me less excited about Mayfield this week.
Week 10 at Patriots
Baker Mayfield is coming off an efficient outing against the Bengals where he completed 66.7 percent of his passes at 10.4 yards per attempt. He finished as QB12 for the week, which was his only Top-12 finish of the season, demonstrating his limited upside in a run-heavy offense. It's clear that Mayfield is a better quarterback when Odell Beckham Jr. isn't on the field.
Mayfield goes up against a Patriots defense that ranks second in aFPA to quarterbacks, so this is a tough matchup. Add in the run-heavy offensive scheme and you have an unappealing streamer this week. Expect the Browns to try to exploit the Patriots' defense on the ground because that's where they are more vulnerable.
Week 9 at Bengals
Baker Mayfield returned to the lineup to underwhelming results against the Steelers last week, completing 20-of-31 targets for 225 yards with no touchdowns. Currently QB27 in fantasy points per game, Mayfield is only worth streaming in good matchups with projected pass-heavy game scripts.
Mayfield goes up against a Bengals defense that ranks 24th in aFPA. This team just allowed Mike White to throw for 405 yards against them. The Browns are also 2.5-point underdogs in this spot, so perhaps we can see Mayfield air it out more often this week. This puts him on the streaming radar in deeper leagues.
Week 6 vs. Cardinals
Mayfield had a bounce-back game against the Chargers last week, completing 71.9% of his passes for 305 yards (9.5 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns. He's currently ranked as QB22, held back by limited volume, as he's only averaging 29 pass attempts per game. Mayfield is only viable as a streamer in potential pass-heavy game scripts, where the Browns are forced to air it out as they play from behind.
Mayfield goes up against a Cardinals defense that ranks 3rd in pass DVOA and 8th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Arizona is a run-funnel defense, allowing 5.14 yards per carry, which means that the Browns are likely to remain run-heavy in this spot. I'd look elsewhere if I needed a streamer this week.
