Week 4 at Miami Dolphins (game in London)
Adrian Peterson rushed 9 times for 33 yards in the Saints' Week 3 win over the Panthers. Mark Ingram out-touched Peterson 16-11 and out-gained the former Viking 86-37. Peterson remains New Orleans' clear No. 2 back but because he adds nothing to the receiving game, third-stringer Alvin Kamara offers more fantasy value. Avoid AP in Week 4.
Week 3 at Carolina Panthers
Adrian Peterson rushed 8 times for 26 yards in the Saints’ Week 2 loss to the Patriots. There was some good for Peterson, who converted a 4th-and-1 late in the game and also set up a Saints touchdown following two nice runs. But it’s clear Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have bigger roles than Peterson in Sean Payton’s offense.
Peterson offers little to nothing in the passing game, so avoid him until further notice. Ranked as our RB56 for Week 3, Peterson is nothing more than an RB4/5 against the Panthers, who rank as fantasy’s No. 1 defense against running backs.
Week 2 vs. New England Patriots
Adrian Peterson rushed just 6 times for 18 yards in the Saints’ Week 1 loss to the Vikings. He was also targeted once on a rollout on the goal line, but Peterson failed to get open. The Saints trailed for most of the game, which resulted in Sean Payton relying more on Alvin Kamara (31 snaps) than Peterson (9 snaps) and Mark Ingram (26 snaps). Still, it was somewhat surprising to see Peterson used so rarely.
Peterson also showed frustration both during the game (he was seen sniping at Payton on the sidelines) and afterward, saying he “didn’t sign up for 9 snaps” when he signed with New Orleans in the offseason. For now, we’ll have to assume Peterson will take a backseat to Kamara and Ingram on game days. Ranked as our RB53 for Week 2, you can avoid Peterson in the Saints’ home-opener against the Patriots.
Week 1 at Minnesota Vikings
Adrian Peterson finished with just 72 yards rushing on 37 carries in 2016 because a knee injury limited him to just three games. The Vikings decided to move on from their All-Pro running back in the offseason and Peterson signed with the Saints in free agency. With Mark Ingram entrenched as the team’s No. 1 back and rookie Alvin Kamara coming off an impressive preseason, it’ll be interesting to see what role the 32-year-old Peterson carves out for himself in Sean Payton’s offense.
If you’re big on revenge games, you’ll love Peterson this week. He takes on the Vikings in Minnesota on Monday night and has already stated that he wants to “stick it” to his former team. The question is whether or not he’ll get enough carries to “stick it” to the Vikings. For now, we need to assume that Peterson will play a complementary role to Ingram. We have him ranked as our No. 29 back though, so feel free to use him as a FLEX option if you’re intrigued by Peterson’s upside.
Fantasy Upside
Two years after leading the NFL in carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns, Adrian Peterson tore his meniscus in Week 2 last season and finished with just six carries for the entire year. Even though Peterson is 32, he didn't play in two of the past three seasons due to a suspension and injury. Theoretically, he should be fresher than a typical 32-year-old back and he's one Mark Ingram injury away from being a starter in New Orleans. Granted, he isn't the same back he used to be, but Peterson is drawing praise in training camp for the same combination of speed and power he flashed in Minnesota. If Ingram were to go down, Peterson could finish in the top 20 of fantasy scoring backs.
Fantasy Downside
Most 32-year-old running backs don't have top-20 fantasy seasons. Peterson is also sharing a backfield with Ingram, the starter, and Alvin Kamara, whom the Saints drafted in the third round this April. The Saints figure to score plenty of points and Sean Payton goes to great lengths to preserve Ingram throughout the season (Ingram has never had more than 226 carries in a year), but there will only be so many carries to go around. The Saints signed Peterson to a two-year, $7 million contract. That's not a huge commitment.
2017 Bottom Line
Peterson ranks as our RB33 for 2017 and is going early in the eighth round of 10-team leagues. (His ADP for 12-team leagues is 6.12.) Given the Saints depth chart, the fact he's 32 and doesn't catch many passes, fantasy owners will be rolling the dice that either a) Ingram goes down and opens the door for more touches for Peterson and/or b) Peterson has more juice than normal 32-year-old backs and he outperforms Ingram. There's a chance Peterson turns back the clock for one last season, but the more likely scenario is that he finishes in the RB30-40 range given how crowded the Saints backfield is heading into 2017.
Week 16 vs. Green Bay
Adrian Peterson's return left a lot to be desired last week. He ran six times for 22 yards and caught one pass for one yard. He may find some improvement this week against the Packers, but it'd be difficult to trust him.
Overall, Minnesota's rushing offense has been terrible this season, so it doesn't just rely on AP being better. Expect Minnesota to mix in Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata, leaving fewer carries for Peterson to really make an impact.
Peterson will be a borderline RB3 at best this week.
Week 2 vs. Green Bay
Adrian Peterson was horrendous in Week 1, mustering 31 yards on 19 carries (1.6 YPC). Some people may be panicking, but it's way too early for that. Peterson will continue to get the ball, and his talent will prevail.
He'll face a Packers defense this week that didn't allow many yards to Jacksonville in Week 1, but that's more due to T.J. Yeldon not being good. We expect A.P. to get back to his RB1 self, making him a must-start option this week.
Adrian Peterson - Week 1 vs. Titans
Adrian Peterson should get a heavy dose of carries this week, as he typically does. But with Teddy Bridgewater done for 2016, and Shaun Hill (likely) under center, the Vikings will need to rely on their All-Pro rusher like never before.
He doesn't get a dream matchup this week, but that usually doesn't matter for AP. He's an elite-level talent able to run through anything that's in his way. He should be viewed as a must-start RB1 option in all formats this week.
Fantasy Upside
Adrian Peterson finished as the No. 2 back in both fantasy formats last season after yet another dominating year. The Vikings lean on Peterson heavily, and it shows, as he was far and away the league leader in rushing attempts (327), which led to a rushing title.
He finished with 10-plus fantasy points in 11 games last season, which is consistency that’s typically hard to find. In addition, there have been no major changes with the team that would cause an alarm for a big drop off in production.
Fantasy Downside
Peterson is a 31-year-old back with nearly 2,400 carries in his career. He’s taken a lot of hits, and we typically see running backs start to decline once they hit that 30-year mark.
Peterson is also not a great receiving threat out of the backfield as he only finished with 30 receptions last year. Backup Jerick McKinnon could threaten Peterson’s workload considering he’s a talented, younger back.
Bottom Line
Peterson’s age may be a bigger concern if he didn’t play well last season, but considering he finished the year leading the league in rushing, it’s hard to doubt his production for 2016. He’s one of the league’s best backs in a system that loves running the ball. He should easily finish in the top five if he remains healthy.
Week 17 vs. Green Bay
Adrian Peterson is eyeing his third rushing title, and he has a comfortable 64-yard lead over No. 2 man Doug Martin. Peterson's 104 yards last week helped him move ahead to the top spot.
He'll look to get that rushing title against a tough Packers rush defense. Peterson had just 45 rushing yards in his last game against the Packers. Despite the poor matchup, Peterson is an easy RB1 play this week.
