Week 6 at Miami Dolphins
Adrian Peterson has been terrible in 2019, but there are a few reasons to like him this week. The first is Washington fired Jay Gruden and interim coach Bill Callahan has mentioned several times this week he wants to run the ball more. The second reason to like Peterson is the fact he's going up against the Dolphins who are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Washington's offensive line is still terrible, so temper expectations, but AP should be a solid flex play this week.
Week 5 vs. New England Patriots
Adrian Peterson can not get anything going on the ground in 2019. He's run the ball 33 times for 90 yards in three games, and is a minimal factor in the passing game. There's really not much else to say about AP. Even worse, he gets a brutal matchup against the Patriots this week who are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (61.3). With Peterson's struggles and New England's great defense, it's hard to envision a scenario where Peterson is successful this week.
Week 4 at New York Giants
Adrian Peterson through the first three games of 2018 had 236 rushing yards. Peterson through the first three games this season has 62 rushing yards. AP has struggled to get anything going behind Washington's offensive line, as he's averaging 2.8 yards per carry. The Redskins have been playing Chris Thompson on more snaps than Peterson as it's easier to gain yards by throwing to a back instead of having him run it. Peterson does get a favorable matchup against the Giants this week, but he's not much more than a flex option.
Week 3 vs. Chicago Bears
Adrian Peterson's 2019 debut didn't go too well. He carried the ball 10 times for 25 yards, although he did find the endzone. He also caught two passes for seven yards. Washington has struggled to run the ball in 2019 with their combined rushers having 30 attempts on the season for 75 yards (2.5 ypc). It's difficult to see those numbers improving too much this week as Peterson gets a brutal matchup against the Bears. Chicago has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards to backs, and hasn't allowed a touchdown to the position all season. Peterson is a low-end RB3 at best.
Week 2 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Adrian Peterson was a healthy scratch in Week 1 as Washington appears to be fully-in on Derrius Guice. The problem now, however, is Guice will be out for several weeks, which means Peterson should take over main rushing duties now. He ran for 1,000 yards as the lead back a year ago, so he should get plenty of opportunities with Guice out of the lineup.
He gets what could be a tough matchup against the Cowboys this week. Dallas has a good defense, but allowed Saquon Barkley to run all over them in Week 1 (11 carries, 120 yards). We like Peterson as a lower-end RB2 option.
Week 1 at Philadelphia Eagles
Adrian Peterson was one of just nine players to rush for 1,000 yards a year ago. His play earned him a two-year deal despite the return of second-round pick Derrius Guice. Guice is listed as Washington's starter, but the team had to bring back Peterson for a reason. So he'll clearly have a role, but what that role is will be difficult to predict without seeing the team play first. Expect a timeshare of some sort between the two with Chris Thompson entering in on passing downs. Peterson should be viewed as an RB3 in a decent matchup against the Eagles.
Fantasy Upside
Adrian Peterson surprised everyone by coming back from the dead and rushing for 1,042 yards last season. He was one of just nine players to finish with over 1,000 rushing yards. He’s back on the roster for 2019, and could have another big role this season if Derrius Guice continues to have injury struggles. There was a report Guice suffered a hamstring injury during rehab for his torn ACL. If Guice misses time, expect AP to do what he did a season ago and carry the load for Washington.
Fantasy Downside
The obvious downside to Peterson is the presence of Guice. Guice is the clear running back of the future in Washington, and he looked good last season before his unfortunate ACL tear. With Guice back and Chris Thompson on third-down/pass-catching duties, there really isn’t much of a role for Peterson here. Also, AP turned 34 years old this offseason. It’s extremely rare to see a running back produce past the age of 30, let alone 34.
2019 Bottom Line
It’s hard to ignore Peterson’s 1,000-yard season in 2018. And the fact Washington signed him back instead of letting him go and going completely with Guice has to mean something. We don’t see AP just going away completely in 2019, but it seems very unlikely he’ll be able to repeat what he did a year ago. He still has some value and could very well lead the Redskins in rushing yards again, but Guice has the higher ceiling among the two Washington backs.
Week 17 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Here are the point totals for the Washington offense over the past four games: 13, 16, 16 and 16. With a home match-up, Vegas is being "generous" this week with an implied team total of 17.75 points. With a fourth-string quarterback at the helm, this is not an offense to rely on for fantasy production in Week 17. This is a team that's just trying to stay competitive via its defense and special teams. Even Adrian Peterson in a good match-up (Eagles 27th in aFPA to RBs) must be considered a risky FLEX despite a good game last week.
Week 16 at Tennessee Titans (Saturday)
Washington has scored less than 17 points in three consecutive games. This week, the implied team total of this team is absurdly low yet again - 13.5 points. It is the lowest implied total on the slate by a point and a half. With this currently being the worst offense in the NFL on its fourth quarterback of the season, we simply have no confidence in starting any piece of this offense for fantasy in Week 16. Even Adrian Peterson is touchdown-or-bust at this point.
Week 15 at Jacksonville Jaguars
We're going to make this really simple for you. Washington has the lowest implied total in Week 15 at 14.5 points, a full 2.5 points lower than the next worst team. They are on their fourth quarterback. The running game has been extremely inefficient, and the starting tight end is injured now on top of previous injuries to wide receivers. There isn't a single Redskins player we feel comfortable starting in fantasy football for Week 15.
