Week 1 vs. Minnesota
For all the noise made about the Green Bay backfield this offseason, one item remains true—Aaron Jones is still one of the best running backs in the league. Jones begins the season against the Vikings, a team he absolutely dominated in 2019 as he averaged 23 carries for 135 yards and 1.5 touchdowns in their two matchups last season. In what should be a game featuring great defenses and heavy rushing attacks, fire up Jones as a high-end RB1.
Fantasy Upside
After a frustrating first seasons in the league in an RB committee, Aaron Jones finally broke out in 2020 to the tune of 1,089 receptions and a league-leading 16 rushing touchdowns. Jones was seemingly destined for the endzone last season with five games with at least two rushing touchdowns including one four-touchdown early in the year against Dallas. Not only was Jones impressive in the run, but Green Bay’s lack of receiving weapons allowed him to get 69 targets which he turned into 49 receptions, 474 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Green Bay’s all-purpose back will see an expected regression in touchdowns, but his effectiveness in all facets of the game should account for continued production in 2020.
Fantasy Downside
Seemingly free from sharing the backfield with Jamaal Williams last season, Jones finds himself in yet another full backfield with 2020 second-round pick A.J. Dillon. Unlike Williams, the concern in sharing the backfield with Dillon is his hulking six-foot, 250-pound frame that will inevitably steal away goal-line opportunities for Jones. An inevitable step back from the defense might call for a more negative game script for Jones, thus calling for more pass attempts for QB Aaron Jones—a definite hit to Jones’ production.
2020 Bottom Line
Jones might have hit his ceiling last year as he tied fantasy MVP Christian McCaffery for total TDs scored for non-QBs, but his talent and past prediction will be enough to give most of the reps in the Green Bay backfield. We currently have Jones ranked 14th amongst running backs and his current 12-team ADP has him going in the middle of the second round. Fantasy teams are taking Jones based on 2019 production, however, the high draft capital investment from a team who likes to spread the wealth in the backfield makes Jones a few mistakes away from a full-blown RB-by-committee.
Week 17 at Detroit Lions
Aaron Jones had 154 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries last week -- adding two catches for six yards -- solidifying his spot as a first-round draft pick next season. He's just 16 rushing yards short of 1,000 for the season and leads the NFL with 16 rushing touchdowns. Given that the Lions have been awful against opposing running backs this season, Jones is a no-brainer pick this week as an RB1. It doesn't hurt that Jamaal Williams is nursing a shoulder injury, as well.
Week 16 at Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Jones continued to be a touchdown machine this season, scoring two more last week despite getting just 13 rushing attempts for 51 yards. Jones now has an NFL-best 14 rushing touchdowns this season, adding three more through the air. He had one of his best rushing games of the season in Week 2 against the Vikings, gaining 116 yards on 23 carries with a touchdown while also catching four passes for 34 yards. Jones' usage has been spotty, at best, but with the division title on the line, the Packers will likely lean on Jones. Jones is a low-end RB1, low-end RB2 this week.
Week 15 vs. Chicago Bears
Aaron Jones had 16 carries for 134 yards and a touchdown, and caught six passes for another 58 yards in a strong game last week against the Redskins. Can he repeat that against the Bears? That remains to be seen. He probably won't get 22 touches again this week, as he's only been above that number two other times this season. And he had 13 carries for 39 yards in the regular-season opener against the Bears. But that was a long time ago and the Bears aren't quite as good against the run as they were earlier in the season. Jones is a solid RB1 play.
Week 14 vs. Washington Redskins
11 carries for 18 yards and four receptions for 13 without a score weren't exactly what you were expecting out of Aaron Jones in blowout win over the Giants. He did have chances to score, but his touches remain disturbing. Jones hasn't gotten more than 15 in a game since Davante Adams returned to the lineup. He's a good bet to get back into the end zone this week against Washington's defense, ranked 25th against opposing running backs, the lack of volume keeps him as more of a low-end RB1 play this week.
Week 13 vs. New York Giants
Aaron Jones, like the rest of the Green Bay offense, was shut down last week against the 49ers, gaining just 38 yards on 13 carries. More concerning was that he failed to catch a pass for the second consecutive week. That coincided with Davante Adams' return to the lineup. Jones should bounce back this week against a soft Giants' run defense. He's a solid RB1 play this week.
Week 12 at San Francisco 49ers
Aaron Jones has gotten just 21 carries in the previous two games, including 13 in Week 10 against the Panthers. So he should be good and rested coming off the bye week. And he did post 93 yards and three touchdowns in that win over the Panthers, though he failed to catch a pass or get a target for the first time this season. The 49ers have allowed just three rushing TDs all season by running backs and have yet to allow a running back to catch a TD pass. Don't expect a monster game, but Jones should get 15-plus touches in this one. He's an RB1.
Week 10 vs. Carolina Panthers
Things had been going so well for Aaron Jones -- until last week, when he got just nine touches -- eight rushes and one reception -- for 29 yards. It was season lows all around for Jones. Look for the Packers to try to make up for that this week with a heavy workload. The Panthers have given up 11 rushing touchdowns and three receiving to opposing running backs. Jones has been a touchdown machine this season and is a good bet to add to his total as an RB1 this week.
Week 9 at L.A. Chargers
Aaron Jones produced over 200 yards of offense last week, rushing for 67 yards and catching seven passes for a career-high 159 yards and two touchdowns. That production can be fleeting, especially with Davante Adams looking like he could return this week. But the Packers seem to have found something with their backs in the passing game, and there's enough meat on the bone here for both Jones and Jamaal Williams. The Chargers defense can be run on and Jones should get 20 combined touches in this game. He's a solid RB1 option this week.
