Week 6 at Bears
As 5.5-point favorites in a projected low-scoring game, the context is set up for Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones to produce a strong showing in Week 6. Green Bay heads on the road to Chicago, which is a tough defense for fantasy backs – fourth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs – but looks like to control the tempo through most of the game. If this is the case, all-purpose lead back Jones should be able to rise above a tough situation and meet our model's expectations: fantasy's RB6 for Week 6.
Week 5 at Cincinnati Bengals
Even with the game script lined up for a passing bonanza, Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones still makes for an excellent play in Week 5. Our models project him as the RB3 in fantasy against the Cincinnati Bengals defense, which is allowing the 13th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing backfields.
Jones so far this year has posted the sixth-most half PPR fantasy points per game among running backs. He continues to be a major part of the Packers' offense no matter the game script, though the projected close nature of this Week 5 tilt gives confidence that Jones won't be spelled as much as in blowouts. Add in the fact that he is the receiving back for Green Bay, and you have a recipe for another strong fantasy showing.
Week 4 vs. Steelers
It's hard to recommend anything other than starting Aaron Jones with the utmost confidence when he continues to pile on the holy fantasy running back trinity: elite workload, frequent red-zone usage, and exceptional big-play ability. All three of those things should continue to be present for Jones in Week 4, though he is dealing with an ankle injury and will need to be monitored as the week of practices progresses. As of now, there's no indication that he will miss the upcoming contest.
The other blemish on Jones' Week 4 profile is a date with the Pittsburgh Steelers defense, which ranks second-toughest in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. Still, if Jones is healthy, he is one of the best backs in fantasy football. Fire him up, as our models project him as the RB6 this week.
Week 3 at 49ers
Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones absolutely exploded in Week 2, touching the ball 23 times and racking up a whopping 38.5 half-PPR points in a blowout win over the Detroit Lions. Jones saw over 70% of the team's running back rushes and a 22.2% target share in that game, a marked improvement from Week 1, as the Pack made him the focal point of their "keep the clock running and the score rising" offensive game plan.
Week 3 could present more of a problem, however, as Green Bay heads westward to the San Francisco 49ers. The San Francisco defense has been the ninth-toughest for fantasy backfields when adjusting for strength-of-schedule, and the Pack enter this game as three-point underdogs. It's likely they will keep Jones involved in the passing game again, but he might not find much room to run with a banged-up offensive line and playing from behind. Jones comes in on our rankings as the RB5 despite a lot of contextual factors, but be aware that his return to earth after Week 2's performance might be a little harder of a landing than you'd hope.
Week 2 vs. Lions
It's hard to take too much out of Week 1 for Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones. The Packers were in a neutral game script (within one score of their opponent) for just four minutes on offense in that contest, and spent the rest of the time playing catch-up from a distinctly distant position. It's good to know that Jones was the main back even while the Packers were in hurry-up mode, but going down by 14 or more points from the second quarter on will dampen any running back's fantasy day.
This game should be much better for Jones, however, as the Packers are 11.5-point favorites by Vegas lines against the Detroit Lions at home in Lambeau Field. This projected positive game script will be a big boon for Jones' rushing numbers as they hope to kill the clock and salt the game away. The Lions allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing backfields so far this year, making this an outstanding bounce-back chance for our sixth-highest projected fantasy back in Week 2.
Week 1 at New Orleans
It's hard to ever rank Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones outside of your top-10 within a week, but matchups like this put him closer to the backend of that group. The Packers' top rusher is our ninth-best fantasy back in this contest, as our models project him for 58.8 rushing yards and 0.4 touchdowns on 12.6 carries, as well as 3.6 receptions for 27.0 yards and 0.1 air scores. The major downside in his profile this week is a tough matchup with the New Orleans Saints' staunch front-seven, the second-toughest run defense this week. His fantasy ceiling might be a little lower than some peers, but the reliability of his production is hard to completely avoid.
Fantasy Upside
Over the last two seasons, Aaron Jones has operated as the Packers’ primary running back – averaging 14.6 rushes per game for 72.9 yards (5.0 yards per attempt) and 0.8 touchdowns and 4.4 targets per game for 3.2 receptions, 27.6 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns. In 2019 and 2020, Jones finished as the fantasy RB2 and RB5, respectively, in half-PPR formats. Each season in the NFL, he has gained more receiving work and rushing volume, becoming a true every-week fantasy star. Earlier this offseason, the Packers allowed backfield-mate Jamaal Williams to walk in free agency and extended Jones on a four-year, $38 million contract that guarantees he’ll be the team’s workhorse for the next two seasons.
Fantasy Downside
Much of Jones' fantasy star turn has depended on sustained high-end yardage efficiency (5.5 yards per attempt rushing in 2017, 2018, and 2020) or scoring efficiency (28 touchdowns on 444 touches across 2018 and 2019). A volume of touches in the 260-plus range is all-but-guaranteed, but Jones' yards per attempt could slip and he might not fall into double-digit touchdowns to cover for that loss. If that happens, he likely ends up a more mortal fantasy RB2 than a superlative, league-winning RB1.
Bottom Line
Jones is poised for yet another top-five finish among fantasy backs in 2021, despite the turmoil on the rest of the team. The Green Bay offensive line has averaged a top-six ranking in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards over the last four years and should continue to pave the way for Jones. Jones is being selected as the RB10 overall (early second round), but our models project him closer to the RB6 or RB7 – giving him excess value if you can get him at ADP.
Week 17 at Chicago
Jones had a solid game last week against the Tennessee Titans as he carried the ball 10 times for 94 yards and caught 2-of-3 targets for 14 yards. It was a weird game for Jones who surrendered more touches and production to rookie AJ Dillon. Jones was dealing a knee injury prior to the game but sat out for a bit with a new hip injury. Week 17 could be more of the same for Jones, as he should still see plenty of work, but we would not be surprised to see Dillon handle more carries as Green Bay attempts to preserve Jones for the playoffs. Jones is still a solid RB1 this week.
Week 16 vs Tennessee
Jones went off last week against the Carolina Panthers as he ran the ball 20 times for 145 yards and one touchdown. Jones also caught 3-of-4 targets for 13 yards as he carried the Green Bay offense against a surprisingly stout Carolina defense. With the Panthers focused on pressuring Aaron Rodgers, Jones was given free rein all game long and absolutely terrorized this defense.
Jones will face the Tennessee Titans in Week 16, who currently rank 18th in aFPA this season. Jones has seen plenty of work all season long, and it appears his workload is increasing as we approach the end of the NFL regular season. Jones will continue to eat and if the touchdowns continue to come, he’ll be a no doubt elite RB1 this week.
Week 15 vs Carolina
Jones had a down game last week against Detroit, as he carried the ball 15 times for 69 yards and caught 2-of-3 targets for six yards. Jones still managed to out-touch Jamaal Williams 17-10, however the fact that there is still a question of backfield touches this late in the season is curious. Jones continues to see plenty of work; however, it is clear that his value as an elite RB1 does not hold without touchdowns.
The Carolina Panthers bring a difficult matchup for Jones as they rank 9th in aFPA to RBs this season. Jones has seen at least 15 total touches in the last five of seven games, so his efficiency, not his workload is what will come into question. We’ve said it all year long, Jones will only go as far as his touchdowns will take him, so even as a solid RB1 this week, managers should be wary of his endzone touches.
