2022 Fantasy Upside
Aaron Jones maintained a lead role in the Green Bay backfield until he suffered a knee injury in Week 10 that cost him two games and sapped some of his explosiveness down the stretch. At the time of the injury, Jones had played twice the number of snaps as then-rookie A.J. Dillon (460 vs. 230) and was receiving over 60% of the team's carries. Jones also maintained a strong hold on the majority of passing game work. When healthy, Jones remained the clear #1 option in the Green Bay backfield. This is encouraging for his 2022 prospects, particularly when paired with Jones' historical splits with and without Davante Adams on the field. Jones has been a dominant fantasy player virtually anytime Adams missed time in Green Bay. Since 2017, Jones has averaged nearly 23 PPR fantasy points per game without Adams on the field versus only 14.9 with Adams healthy. In short, Jones has been an elite RB1 with Adams off the field over the course of multiple seasons. Adams is now in Las Vegas, meaning Jones should see a significant bump in target share in 2022. That bump will help counter the volume Jones will lose to teammate A.J. Dillon, who has emerged as a quality RB in his own right. Fantasy managers may be scared off Jones after his slow finish last season, but the departure of Adams and a return to full health should do wonders for his fantasy production.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Jones will face an inevitable timeshare with Dillon, who emerged last season as a goal-line staple and solid pass catcher. When Jones returned from his injury in Week 12, he and Dillon split the workload as the 1A and 1B in the backfield rather than having Jones resume his full role as lead runner. Given how well Dillon played down the stretch last year, it is unlikely his workload gets scaled back this year, a fact that will inevitably cost Jones some snaps and touches. Jones will also have to adjust to a new-look Packers offense that faces a real prospect of diminished efficiency and scoring due to the loss of Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Jones finished 9th amongst RBs in red zone touches last year, and any reduction there will have an adverse impact on his fantasy production with Dillon slated to vulture much of the goal-line work. Jones has reached double-digit touchdowns in the last three seasons, but that run could be at risk this year.
2022 Bottom Line
The fact that Jones is proficient as both a runner and pass catcher and gets to work behind Aaron Rodgers means he will carry substantial weekly upside in 2022. While Jones will not be a workhorse back with Dillon in the picture, he should get most of the receiving work out of the backfield and his splits without Adams demonstrate his ability to make an impact through the air. Jones is best viewed as a lower end RB1 in his current situation, and warrants consideration in the second round of drafts.
Week 17 vs. Minnesota Vikings
In spite of a knee injury that has demanded weekly practice management and a second-year budding star nipping at his heels, Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones has still been incredible for fantasy football. Since the Pack's Week 13 bye week, Jones' workload has increased with each game, going from eight opportunities to 15, then to 18 just last week. In that three-week span, Jones has averaged 15.1 half-PPR fantasy points per game thanks in part to the scoring prowess of the Green Bay offense, but also due to his integral involvement in the passing game (almost four targets per game).
For Week 17, our models are somewhat cautious with Jones due to his few and sundry risk factors, but we still project him as a low-end fantasy football RB1 with major upside. One thing working in Jones' favor is the fact that the opposing Minnesota Vikings allow the ninth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to running backs. Fire Jones up with confidence for the fantasy finals.
Week 15 at Baltimore Ravens
Since returning from injury in Week 12, Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones has touched the ball 18 times. On those 18 touches, he has accrued 88 yards from scrimmage, including two goal-line chances that went for scores and three receptions. Obviously, the Packers are still working their star rusher back into the rotation, but Jones' knee and now an illness have conspired to slow that timetable a bit more than fantasy managers surely hoped for.
Week 15 brings Jones up against the toughest defense by schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to running backs, the Baltimore Ravens. Making matters worse, Jones has continued to split ground work with backup A.J. Dillon, hampering his fantasy ceiling. Still, Jones is the receiving back for Green Bay, so he has a better floor than others in his position. If he plays in Week 15, our models like Jones as a middle-of-the-road fantasy RB2.
Week 14 vs. Chicago Bears
Last week saw Aaron Jones operating as A.J. Dillon's change-of-pace back while their Green Bay Packers romped all over the vaunted Rams' defense. Jones was playing in his first game back from a knee injury, however, and still saw 10 touches. With his recovery timeline remaining delay-free, there's a good chance Jones reclaims his top role in the Packers' backfield for Week 14.
If he does, it would be just in time to compete with the Chicago Bears' defense, which ranks eighth-lowest in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to running backs in 2021. There are enough questions about Jones that it's wise to consider his floor in the RB3/FLEX range for Week 14. His ceiling, however, slots him back into the top-12 at his position despite the tough matchup. In spite of a fairly wide range of outcomes, Jones is worth the risk in the waning weeks of the fantasy season.
Week 12 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Aaron Jones (knee) suffered an injury in Week 10 and is currently still expected to be out for Week 12's game on Sunday. He partook in Wednesday's practice walkthrough and practiced again on Thursday (though it's unclear how much of his activity was non-contact), so there is some optimism. Head coach Matt LaFleur has said the Green Bay Packers will evaluate Jones as a game-time decision on Sunday, but Jones' Week 12 usage ceiling seems likely to be a sparingly-used change-up back due to A.J. Dillon's emergence and the Packers' expected caution with their backfield superstar.
Week 11 at Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Jones suffered a knee (MCL) sprain in Week 10 that will sideline him for a minimum of one to two weeks. A.J. Dillon is filling in for his role in the meantime.
Week 10 vs. Seattle Seahawks
There are a lot of swirling, complicated factors at play for the Green Bay Packers in Week 10, but one steady component of their offense is star running back Aaron Jones. Despite not getting as significant of an opportunity share in relation to backfield-mate A.J. Dillon, Jones out-snapped his backup by a wide margin in Week 9. The one issue with Jones' usage was a lack of targets in the passing game, but he has done well enough in that area every other week to not merit much concern going forward.
In Week 10, it remains to be seen which quarterback lines up under center, but our models project Jones for his usual dosage of 15-20 touches that sustain him as a low-end RB1 for fantasy purposes. The Seattle Seahawks rank third-highest in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to running backs, which elevates the rusher's ceiling significantly here.
Week 9 at Kansas City
With greenhorn quarterback Jordan Love making his first career start under center, the offense will likely be driven through the run game – particularly through star running back Aaron Jones. Jones has over 100 scrimmage yards in six of eight games in 2021, and has an extremely high fantasy floor in any given week due to his potent combo of high running back rush share, high target share, and strong goal-line usage.
Week 9 presents a somewhat middling matchup for Jones with Kansas City's 15th-toughest ranked defense by schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to running backs. The high usage he'll likely see boosts his likely diminished efficiency, however, as KC will almost certainly stack the box against him. Our models still project Jones as a volume-based mid-range RB1 this week.
Week 8 at Arizona Cardinals
Despite a mediocre performance in Week 7, Aaron Jones remains a strong option in fantasy football going forward. Turnovers led to Jones' Green Bay Packers having tons of short fields late in the game, which meant odd game script where the running backs weren't used as clock killers. The Pack were also up by two scores, which meant the pace of the game was slow and the backfield wasn't deployed as receivers either. Don't take much from that; Jones still had five targets.
Week 8 will see a much stiffer opponent in the Arizona Cardinals, who are dead-last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to running backs. Jones still projects as a top-10 fantasy back in our models, and a spate of COVID-19 tracing absences in the wide receiver room should lead to more workload through the air. Despite the poor matchup, Jones has a solid enough fantasy floor due to likely monopolizing backfield and receiving opportunities.
Week 7 vs. Washington Football Team
As sizable favorites in Week 7, it's entirely likely that running back Aaron Jones will get to stretch his legs plenty as the Packers look to control the clock. Returning to the friendly confines of Lambeau Field should mean Green Bay is in the driver's seat in this game, which is good news for the team's top running back, who hasn't had a game with fewer than 17 touches since Week 1 of 2021.
The Washington Football Team allows the eighth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs, which makes this an outstanding matchup for Jones. Our models project him as fantasy's RB3 this week in a fantastic context for his production.
