Week 3 vs. New Orleans Saints
After missing Week 2, Aaron Jones looked unlikely to return in Week 3 but logged a limited practice on Thursday. We'll update his status after Friday's practice reports are released.
Week 2 at Atlanta Falcons
If Aaron Jones is healthy, and we don't know the answer to that yet, he should be in a solid position to succeed once again. We saw Jones lead the Packers in both rushing and receiving in Week 1, and while he isn't likely to lead in receiving again, the Falcons gave up a solid week to Miles Sanders in Week 1 and a usable week to his backup, Chuba Hubbard.
If Jones is good to go, you should start him confidently with sights on another RB1 week against a defense that is seemingly stronger against the pass than it is against the run. The only worry would be a lessened workload knowing he isn't 100 percent healthy.
Week 1 at Chicago Bears
Breaking in a new starting quarterback, it's conceivable against an average rush defense the Packers could lean on their 1-2 tandem in the backfield to control the game. Although, if they get behind that could benefit Aaron Jones even more through the air. Having multiple receivers not at 100 percent could only help Jones' receiving prospects. While he won't be the bell cow, he will be firmly in play for an RB1 week and is a must-start against this Bears defense.
Fantasy Upside
Just about any way you look at it, Aaron Jones is one of the best running backs in the NFL. If only he got the volume like the elite backs got, but even without it he can be an elite option. Per SportsInfoSolutions, he’s top five in most per-play metrics. He’s also top five in most value-added metrics. Jones gets it done on the ground and through the air, averaging about four targets a game, and while Jordan Love caps the ceiling on the offense, Jones has the floor to maintain fantasy success.
Fantasy Downside
The downside comes from having a new quarterback under center and not a former MVP. You could argue that downside is baked into his ADP, but he also has the looming threat of A.J. Dillon as well. Dillon looks to have taken over the goal-line back role taking 17 of the 27 rushing attempts inside the 10 last season and scored five touchdowns to Jones’ zero.
2023 Bottom Line
Jones is a premier fantasy asset with a new starting quarterback and a premier handcuff behind him. While Jones has seemingly lost the goal-line carries, he still does get targeted in the red zone. Per SIS, he was tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns inside the 10-yard line last season. Jones is still hyper-efficient on a per-play basis and his targets have continued to go up over the last three years. He should maintain his role as the safety valve for a young, inexperienced quarterback. Draft confidently at cost.
Week 17 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Jones continues to deal with some nagging injury issues despite being active the last two weeks. Jones only played 39% of the snaps last week and was out-touched by A.J. Dillon 11-to-8. Jones has been practicing in a limited fashion this week and should suit up for a great matchup against the Vikings' bad defense in Week 17. The fact that Jones remains a capable pass catcher could prove huge in fantasy this week as the Vikings are the worst team in the entire NFL at slowing opposing passing games. Monitor the Packers' injury report on Friday, but for now Jones looks good to go and will be a borderline RB1 in a fantastic matchup.
Week 16 at Miami Dolphins
Aaron Jones turned 21 touches into 126 total yards and a receiving touchdown in Week 15 against the Rams, showing off the kind of versatility that has made him a fantasy star for stretches in the past. Jones remains the clear lead back ahead of A.J. Dillon in Green Bay, but he does not have a true workhorse role and only played 56% of the offensive snaps last week. Jones will face off with the Dolphins' middle-of-the-road run defense this week in a game where his passing game skills could prove useful trying to keep pace with the Dolphins' pass-happy offensive attack. Jones is a solid RB2 with upside for more.
Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Aaron Jones' disappointing Week 14 box score is a little deceiving as he left the game in the second quarter due to a shin injury, only to briefly return in the second half before being shut down for good. Jones apparently practiced in some capacity on Tuesday, meaning he should be good to go by the time kickoff rolls around Monday night. That does create a dilemma as to whether he will see his usual lead back role ahead of A.J. Dillon, or whether the Packers will divide the backfield touches more evenly with Jones banged up. Monitor the practice reports out of Green Bay this week, but as long as Jones is active he should be started as a RB2 against the Rams' average run defense.
Week 13 at Chicago Bears
Aaron Jones was the Packers' lead back yet again in Week 12 when he got 12 carries and three receptions to total 99 yards and a rushing touchdown. Now Jones get a great matchup against a Bears defense that is below-average against opposing runners. Jones has had an up-and-down year but he is a good bet to approach 20 opportunities (carries + targets) most weeks given his lead back status and involvement in the passing game. Keep Jones in your lineups as a solid RB2 who has weekly RB1 upside when the Packers manage a positive offensive performance.
Week 12 at Philadelphia Eagles
Aaron Jones continues to get great usage with the Packers firmly committing to him as the lead back and A.J. Dillon relegated to backup or change-of-pace duties. Jones played 2/3 of the offensive snaps in Week 11 and logged 12 carries with six receptions. Jones remains efficient as a runner with 5.4 YPC on the season, but he needs receiving usage to reach his ceiling and that aspect of his game has been inconsistent this year. Jones' abilities as a receiver may be necessary this week with the Packers big underdogs to the Eagles, and Philly ranks just above average in allowing fantasy points to opposing backs. Jones is a strong RB2 in Week 12, but he has RB1 upside, especially if the Packers fall behind and he sees a healthy target share from Aaron Rodgers.
Week 11 vs. Tennessee Titans
Aaron Jones entered Week 10 with a nagging ankle issue but it didn't seem to affect him against the Cowboys as he racked up 156 total yards and a touchdown on 26 touches (24 carries and two receptions). Jones has had an uneven season (along with the rest of the Packers offense), but he is a foundational piece of the Green Bay offense and will have a chance at a good box score anytime they manage to put up points. The Packers should be able to move the ball against the Titans at home in Week 11, but Tennessee does boast a solid run defense that ranks within the top ten of most difficult matchups for running backs according to schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed. Jones' recent domination of the backfield work has him firmly in the RB2 range even in a tough matchup.
