Scott Smith’s Top Plays for UFC Atlantic City: Blanchfield vs Fiorot

The UFC goes to Atlantic City for a main event with title implications. Erin Blanchfield takes on Manon Fiorot with the winner likely getting the next shot at the title. Vicente Luque takes on Joaquin Buckley in what should be a crowd pleasing striking matchup. Other fights on the card are well matched with some solid lines to take advantage of for both DFS and betting purposes.

Best Bets for UFC Atlantic City: Blanchfield vs Fiorot

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Caolan Loughran + Jacob Malkoun to win (-123, DraftKings)

Fight Breakdown: Caolan Loughran vs Angel Pacheco

Angel Pacheco may not be a UFC-caliber talent. He lost on DWCS but somehow still got a contract due to his willingness to take a short-notice fight against anyone to redeem himself. His desire to do anything to fight in the UFC swayed Dana White enough to give him a chance. Pacheco comes forward with volume and while you will see a number of finishes on his record, it is his volume and not power that is the cause. Pacheco has a nonexistent offensive wrestling game, and his takedown defense is average at best. Pacheco will have to rely on his will and forward pressure if he is to have any success in this fight.

Caolan Loughran was unsuccessful in his UFC debut against Taylor Lapilus. Loughran has power in both his hands and feet, but he too often throws everything into every strike. He could use a bit more nuance and variance in his strikes. His wide base makes him hard to hit but can also limit his lateral movement at times. Loughran will have a big advantage in the clinch and grappling department in this fight. His easiest path to victory will come from his wrestling, where he should be able to dominate with takedowns and top control. I have few concerns in Loughran in this fight past his cardio holding up against the volume of Pacheco. Loughran’s wrestling will go far in controlling the pace. Loughran should cruise to victory here.

Fight Breakdown: Jacob Malkoun vs Andre Petroski

Petroski is a solid wrestler with power in his hands and an above-average submission game. He has looked terrible in his last two fights, however. He was dominated by Michel Pereira and largely outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert. Most of Petroski’s striking is power-based. He has very few setups and doesn’t fight with great pace or movement. He has the ability to land timely takedowns to get the fight to the mat, where he can work his submission game with top pressure. Much of his attacks are of an explosive nature, which does not bode well for his muscled-up frame. His cardio and, thus, his power fade badly as fights wear on, making him much less dangerous than he is in the opening round.

Jacob Malkoun is maybe the most underrated fighter at middleweight. I am of the opinion that he has some of the best MMA wrestling in the UFC. His ability to press the action against the cage where he switches off to finish a single leg is one of the most effective takedown series out there. Malkoun hasn’t shown to be dangerous with his hands or submission game but his takedowns, work rate, and cardio are near elite. MMA math rarely works out, but Brendan Allen was unable to submit Malkoun, and there is a strong argument in favor of Malkoun winning that fight. Malkoun will need to be aware of the guillotine and avoid a big shot, as those are the only two ways I see Petroski having a shot in this fight. I think Malkoun uses his wrestling to outwork and wear Petroski out as he cruises to a win.

Risk: 1.23 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

Vicente Luque to win (-114, FanDual)

Fight Breakdown: Vicente Luque vs Joaquin Buckley

Buckley has looked great at 170-pounds since moving down from middleweight. Everyone knows about the power that Buckley brings into his fights. It’s his progression however, that has been what’s impressive as of late. Buckley has done well in using his footwork to set up strikes and mix in takedowns. His power and explosiveness are tough for any welterweight to deal with. Buckley will always be in a fight as long as it’s on the feet, and he uses his forward pressure to force exchanges. Other than his power, it’s hard to envision him beating Luque in any other area.

Luque is a well-rounded and dangerous fighter at welterweight. He has fought some of the top competition. He is a technical striker with solid takedown defense and a good submission game. Luque took a tough KO loss to Geoff Neal, which left some lingering effects that Luque had to take time to deal with. Some analysts have concerns about that fight affecting Luque’s ability to take some power shots going forward. Luque has been in some wars and he has taken damage. In his last fight however, he brought a wrestling-heavy approach that saw him dominate Rafael dos Santos with seven takedowns. I think Luque is technically better than Buckley everywhere. He should be able to lean on his experience and kicking game to avoid the power of Buckley in this fight.

Risk: 1.14 units on FanDual to win 1 unit. (Playable down to -125)

DFS Cash Game Plays For UFC Atlantic City

Our strategy for MMA DFS cash games revolves around creating lineups that are projected to get at least four wins on fight night. Targeting fighters in 5-round fights give us more scoring upside and both fighters are usually featured in our lineups. Scoring favors grappling heavy fighters with takedowns and control time being heavily targeted in our lineup construction. Finish rate and stylistic matchups are other considerations when searching for a winning combination on fight night.

Premium Plays ($9000 and Above)

Coalan Loughran $9400 - Loughran is one of the biggest favorites on the card, and my model projects him to have the second-highest chance of winning this week. His opponent, Pacheco, may not be a UFC-caliber talent and is getting a contract coming off a loss on DWCS. Loughran not only has faced tougher competition but he is the more skilled fighter nearly everywhere. Loughran has a clear path to victory by taking this fight to the ground, where he should be able to rack up points via control time and have a solid shot at finishing this fight.

Bruno Silva $9300 - Bruno Silva is fighting the ghost of Chris Weidman. There is an outside shot that Weidman can get this fight to the ground and possibly get a submission but nothing in Weidman’s recent performances suggest that he still has that juice. Silva will be the more dangerous striker and the more realistic outcome is that Silva does damage on the feet leading to a finish.

Jacob Malkoun $9000 - Malkoun has the upside to outscore every fighter on this card. His work rate and takedown ability will always score well, even when the fight goes the distance. Petroski will have enough ability to defend or get up early, but Malkoun’s cardio and relentless takedowns should wear Petroski down. I think this fight goes the distance, but the control time and takedown points should allow Malkoun to get to 100 points or more.

Midrange Plays ($8000 - $8900)

Jamaal Emmers $8900 - Emmers gets wild man Nate Landwehr this week. Emmers is the longer, more technical striker as well as the better wrestler. There is no quit in Nate “the Train” but there is a big gap in skill in this fight. Emmers’ 5-inch reach advantage will force Landwehr to either stay at the end of punches or take chances coming forward. Both instances should favor Emmers.

Erin Blanchfield $8800 - Blanchfield in a 5-round fight offers the highest projection on the week. There is some concern as she has struggled to get fights to the ground as of late. Her striking and pressure have greatly improved to the point that it is hard for her opponents to focus on defending a single aspect of her game. While the winner of this fight is likely to end up in the optimal lineup, there is no reason to fret over being correct, as stacking Blanchfield and Fiorot will be our strategy this week for cash games.

Loopy Godinez $8700 - Godinez projects favorably this week. She has the better wrestling and is the more dangerous fighter in this matchup. Other fighters in this price range will offer more scoring upside but are also much riskier options. Godinez should be able to dictate where this fight takes place and should it go the distance, I expect her to have a solid score via control time and takedowns.

Value Plays ($7900 and Below)

Connor Matthews $7800 - Matthews has the highest projection in my model for value plays this week. All but one of his wins have come in the first round. He has the ability to finish the fight multiple ways and is fighting an opponent that has not won in the UFC. This fight could go either way and projects as a pick ‘em, but my model likes Matthews for his finishing upside.

Manon Fiorot $7400 - There are some people that have Fiorot as the A-side in this fight. I have Blanchfield as the top projected scorer this week but I think this is a fight that goes deep. Fiorot has the striking ability to make it a long night for Blanchfield should this fight remain standing. I think this is absolutely a main event that you stack this week and these ladies have the potential to combine for 160 points or more this week.

Herbert Burns $6700 - There are plenty of reasons to fade Herbert Burns. His cardio has been horrible, and in recent fights, he just flat-out quit. Burns does meet a lot of criteria for what we look for in punt plays, however. He is a dangerous threat to get a finish early. His opponent, Arce, missed weight on two attempts and is coming off a layoff. Add in the expectation that the majority of the public is likely to fade him, and the leverage that you get at this price is worth it. At a minimum, Burns will allow you to get some of the safer higher-end plays into your line-up this week.

SWING FIGHT

Ibo Aslan $8300 vs Anton Turkalj $7900 - Interestingly enough, the only loss Aslan has on his record is by way of submission via Turkalj. That fight was three years ago, and both fighters have grown since then. Turkalj seems more intent on having entertaining fights rather than winning based upon the way he has chosen to fight recently. It’s not necessary to target this fight this week, but I think there will be a finish here, and getting on the right side could pay off at a cheap price. I will favor Aslan as he is the more dangerous fighter, with all of his wins coming by way of finish.

Cash Game Lineup:

Coalan Loughran $9400

Jacob Malkoun $9000

Erin Blanchfield $8800

Loopy Godinez $8700

Manon Fiorot $7400

Herbert Burns $6700

UFC Atlantic City

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