Scott Smith’s Best bets for UFC Vegas 75: Cannonier vs Vettori
UFC Vegas 75 is another lackluster fight card in the form of big names. Jared Cannonier and Marvin Vettori headline the card. Both fighters have fought top contenders in the division and look to take a step back towards title contention. Other fights on the card should be competitive and entertaining, but most of the matchups either offer question marks or wide lines. Let’s take a look at which fights we are targeting this week.
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Parlay of the Week - Alessandro Costa and Christian Duncan to win (+129, DraftKings)
Fight Breakdown: Alessandro Costa vs. Jimmy Flick
Jimmy Flick is a dangerous grappler…end of story. There’s not much else to offer outside of that. He hasn’t shown to be particularly durable or athletic. His striking leaves a lot to be desired, and he has shown to have a number of holes in his defense. He is simply too open to being hit. With that said, Flick does have a win over Cody Durden, but his most recent loss to Charles Johnson was rough. Add in his Contenders Series win against a fighter that has gone on to lose four straight, and it’s questionable if Flick belongs at this level.
Alessandro Costa is also coming off a TKO loss in his last fight. It was, however, on short notice against Amir Albazi. In that fight, he was competitive and showed what he can do. He can be low-volume at times, but he throws with power and intent. Both of these fighters have negative striking differentials. Where Flick strikes to set up his grappling, Costa is patient and picks his spots while striking to end the fight. Costa is the pick here, and he should be able to defend takedowns while landing big enough shots to get the win.
Fight Breakdown: Christian Duncan vs. Armen Petrosyan
This should be an entertaining fight between two striking prospects. Petrosyan has a kickboxing background, and while the technical ability is there, he is often drawn into a brawl. Petrosyan is confident in his chin and his ability to take a punch. While his takedown defense is subpar, his scrambling and ability to get up is a bit underrated. Petrosyan puts out solid volume on the feet and throws with power as he looks to mix things up.
Petrosyan will have a willing dance partner in Christian Duncan. Duncan has a limited sample size as his recent win over Dusko Todorovic was ended primarily due to a knee injury. Duncan has, however, shown his skills on the regional circuit, where he has finished seven of his eight wins. Duncan is quick and powerful and is often able to overwhelm his opponents with pressure that opens up his power. Both of these fighters are similar in the way they rely on their chins and come forward for a firefight. Duncan is undefeated and offers more athleticism and an eight-inch reach advantage. Duncan’s athleticism and ability to take Petrosyan down should give him more paths to victory. The UFC is putting Duncan in a showcase position with this fight, and while it should be competitive, I think Duncan will pull it off.
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