Scott Smith’s Best bets for UFC 288: Sterling vs Cejudo
UFC 288 features a pair of 5-round fights for the fans this week. Aljamain Sterling defends his title against former bantamweight champion Henry Cejudo. Cejudo never lost his title and is coming out of retirement to reclaim his spot at the top. At welterweight, Belal Muhammed and Gilbert Burns are fighting for the next shot at champion Leon Edwards. This card has a number of other exciting fights in what should be an action-packed pay-per-view. Let’s get into the plays.
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UFC 288 Best Bets
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Parlay of the Week
Movsar Evloev and Khaos Williams to win (-214, DraftKings)
Movsar Evloev vs. Diego Lopes Fight Breakdown
Diego Lopes is taking this fight on short notice. That is a big ask against a fighter the level of Evloev. Lopes is a skilled striker that throws with power. He can get wild as he chases the finish. He lost his only step up in competition to Joanderson Brito on DWCS. In that fight, he was taken down three times. Evloev is a dynamic wrestler and was set to take on fellow wrestler Bryce Mitchell. There will be a stylistic change in opponents here, but Evloev should have little trouble in controlling the fight with his wrestling. Evloev controls distance well with his strikes to set up his takedowns. Evloev will be the more technical fighter and will use his chain wrestling to dominate this fight. Evloev is the biggest favorite on this card for good reason. My model has Evloev with a rating of over 78% for this fight. Fights with that rating have cashed over 82% of the time in 2023.
Khaos Williams vs. Rolando Bedoya Fight Breakdown
Rolando Bedoya is making his UFC debut in a tough spot against the powerful Khaos Williams. Bedoya has been fighting on the South American regional scene for 10 years. Bedoya is a wild striker that throws combinations from multiple angles. He is wild and tough with a good chin, but that has held up against lower-level fighters. Bedoya lacks power to put people away with one shot and is far too hittable to survive clean shots from a fighter with the power of Williams.
Williams has solid wins over the likes of Alex Morono, Matthew Semelsberger, and Abdul Razak Alhusan, with competitive losses to Randy Brown and Michel Pereira. Williams has been putting in work with upper-level fighters such as LHW Champion Jamahal Hill. Williams has been working on his wrestling to keep the fight standing where his power can win fights. From a match up standpoint, the UFC set Williams up with an opponent that often stands right in front of his opponents. Williams will have plenty of opportunities to showcase his power. Bedoya may come out with a wild flurry early in this match, but I expect Williams to put Bedoya away.
Risk: 3 units on DraftKings to win 1.4 units (Playable down to -225)
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Prop Bets of the Week
Charles Jourdain wins by Decision .5 unit on DraftKings to win 1.65 units
Kron Gracie wins by Submission .5 unit on DraftKings to win 1.2 units
This fight is a classic grappler versus striker matchup. Kron Gracie has a legendary last name and the jiu-jitsu to match. Gracie’s path to victory is clear. If he gets it to the ground, I see him controlling the position until he works to a submission. The problem is that his wrestling looked troublesome against Cub Swanson. After the loss, he took over three years off to work on his skills. Jourdain has been taken down numerous times. Some of those takedowns are due to a lack of defense, while others are due to Jourdain’s recklessness. If Kron’s wrestling has improved enough to put Jourdain down, I like his chances to win early via submission.
I see this fight going one of two ways, and I am willing to bet on Kron Gracie. If Gracie gets the fight to the ground, I have a hard time seeing him missing a submission. The flip side of the coin is that Kron is unable to get the fight to the ground. If that’s the case, I am again willing to bet on Gracie’s toughness as Jourdain peppers Gracie on the feet en route to a decision. Betting half a unit on both outcomes is the route I am going. If you want to play the same outcome at a lower price tag, consider combining both props on DraftKings at -110 under the Method of Victory Double Chance lines.
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