Sam Darnold

Fantasy Upside

With 38 games in three seasons, two of which under Adam Gase, Sam Darnold’s primary upside lies in the hope that he just needs a chance. The Panthers should give him that chance, with excellent weapons all around him and a passer-friendly system from offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Teddy Bridgewater was the 20th-ranked quarterback in fantasy points per game last season in this offense, and that was largely without Christian McCaffrey in the lineup. Swapping out Curtis Samuel for rookie Terrace Marshall shouldn’t hurt Darnold’s potential with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson forming one of the best wide receiver duos in the league.

Fantasy Downside

Unfortunately, it’s possible Darnold simply isn’t very good. While he’s throwing touchdowns at a better rate than Bridgewater, most of his other numbers are far inferior to the player he’s replacing. Bridgewater completes a higher percentage of his passes, throws for more yards per attempt, and has fewer total interceptions despite playing in 21 more games. Darnold has also struggled to stay on the field, with just 38 games in his three-year career thus far, so expecting him to make it through 17 games may be a tall order.

2021 Bottom Line

Darnold’s best-case scenario is probably to finish right around where Bridgewater did a year ago if he can keep from turning the ball over. There is upside for un-tapped potential in a change of scenery for the youngster, but there’s little reason to expect legit QB1 numbers from him. In 2QB leagues, he becomes a value option late, but in most leagues, he’s outside the range of players worth rostering, even at his current ADP – QB29 and late-14th round.

Fantasy Upside
It will be a key season for Sam Darnold as the Jets have not seen the quarterback or the success on offense they hoped for when the selected him as the third overall pick in 2018. New York still thinks he can be their franchise quarterback, so the opportunity is there for him. He did increase his completion rate to 62% and raised his passing yardage total to 3,082 yards. It was a small improvement from his rookie season. The Jets went out last season and got Le'Veon Bell to help the offense and drafted WR Denzel Mims in the second round in 2020 to give Darnold a deep threat.

Fantasy Downside
The numbers are below average and a massive improvement is needed by Darnold in order to start living up to expectations. Passer rating was 27th in the NFL. Passing yards per game was 24th. Interception percentage was 27th. Turnovers were a big issue for Darnold who threw 13 picks and lost six fumbles. It doesn't help that his receiving corp is below average and even with Bell, the running game struggled. If Darnold is going to improve, his other offensive players will have to make strides as well.

2020 Bottom Line
Darnold has not been a fantasy star in his first two seasons and we don't think that's going to change in 2020. We do expect the numbers to rise if he can play full season (missed 3 games in the each of the first two seasons). But it still will keep at the bottom of the list for starting quarterbacks. Darnold is going in the late rounds and if you want to take a flyer as a backup, it could pay off. But he ranks 29th overall which makes him a QB3 and he should only be on your team if you have deep rosters.

Week 13 at Cincinnati
Sam Darnold had one of this best games of the season throwing for 315 yards and two touchdowns and running for another score. The Jets QB has been much better in recent weeks and his fantasy value is rising.

Darnold will face the Bengals who are 27th in aFPA to quarterbacks. This is a great matchup for the second-year signal-caller.

Start Darnold as a low-end QB1 for Week 13 and expect similar number to last week's performance.