Fantasy Upside
Lamar Jackson had a bit of a down year by his standards in 2022. While he still averaged 63.7 rushing yards per game, he had a career-low 6.9 yards per pass attempt and was limited to 20 total touchdowns (17 passing, three rushing) in 12 games. Still, Jackson was sixth in fantasy points per game among regular starters and his rushing upside continues to give him QB1 potential every week. He also has new weapons this year. A healthy (hopefully) Rashod Bateman will be joined by veteran Odell Beckham Jr. and first-round rookie Zay Flowers. With Todd Monken brought in to run a more downfield style passing attack, rather than the strict rush approach deployed by Greg Roman, the sky's the limit for Jackson entering his age-26 season with a brand new contract.
Fantasy Downside
While we love new weapons and an emphasis on the passing game, it is possible Monken’s style of downfield passing may decrease Jackson’s efficiency as a passer, and may create fewer designed runs for him. However, the main downside for Jackson is health. He’s played in only 12 games in each of the last two seasons and his playing style doesn’t exactly lend itself to durability and longevity.
2023 Bottom Line
Jackson is available in the third round of drafts and that feels just about right given the risk/reward of drafting him. He’s one of only a handful of players with legit potential to finish as the overall QB1 and we have him ranked right around our top five quarterbacks. Draft him at cost.