Fantasy Upside
Baker Mayfield completed 305-of-486 (62.8%) passes for 3,563 yards (7.3 Y/A), 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions as well as 165 rushing yards on 54 attempts (3.1 Y/A) and one touchdown, finishing as QB25 in fantasy points per game. As a quarterback with limited mobility in a run-heavy offense, Mayfield seems like a low-upside player, but if you dive deeper you see that he’s an intriguing target. Mayfield averaged 36.8 pass attempts with 1,713 yards (7.75 Y/A), 11 touchdowns, and one interception in his last six games, compared to 26.5 pass attempts per game with 1,850 yards (6.98 Y/A), 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions in his first 10. He finished as QB9 in fantasy points per game during that hot stretch. This is a young quarterback with first overall draft capital who showed improvement in his age-25 season, playing behind an elite offensive line and supporting cast, with continuity on his coaching staff. There is some untapped fantasy upside here.
Fantasy Downside
The Browns should remain one of the more run-heavy offenses in the NFL. According to RotoViz, the Browns passed the ball 51% of the time in neutral game-scripts, which ranked 28th in the NFL. While Mayfield should be able to eclipse his total of 486 pass attempts this season, it’s likely that his total will still be among the fewest in the NFL. As a quarterback who doesn’t run, this definitely caps his upside. Mayfield will need to be highly efficient in order to ascend to the Top-15 fantasy quarterbacks. The risk here is that we see the Browns play as they did prior to Week 12 and Mayfield plays at a QB20-25 level in fantasy points per game.
2021 Bottom Line
Mayfield was a highly touted quarterback coming out of college and he really took the next step in his development last season. While the Browns should be among the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL, there’s a chance that their offense could continue to function as it did from Weeks 12-17. The Browns passed the ball 59% of the time in neutral game scripts during this stretch, which tied for ninth in the NFL. We can reasonably project at least a modest increase in pass attempts for Mayfield. Currently being drafted as QB21 (157.5 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues, Mayfield is worth a look as a cheap quarterback in an elite offense.