2022 Fantasy Upside
Aaron Jones maintained a lead role in the Green Bay backfield until he suffered a knee injury in Week 10 that cost him two games and sapped some of his explosiveness down the stretch. At the time of the injury, Jones had played twice the number of snaps as then-rookie A.J. Dillon (460 vs. 230) and was receiving over 60% of the team's carries. Jones also maintained a strong hold on the majority of passing game work. When healthy, Jones remained the clear #1 option in the Green Bay backfield. This is encouraging for his 2022 prospects, particularly when paired with Jones' historical splits with and without Davante Adams on the field. Jones has been a dominant fantasy player virtually anytime Adams missed time in Green Bay. Since 2017, Jones has averaged nearly 23 PPR fantasy points per game without Adams on the field versus only 14.9 with Adams healthy. In short, Jones has been an elite RB1 with Adams off the field over the course of multiple seasons. Adams is now in Las Vegas, meaning Jones should see a significant bump in target share in 2022. That bump will help counter the volume Jones will lose to teammate A.J. Dillon, who has emerged as a quality RB in his own right. Fantasy managers may be scared off Jones after his slow finish last season, but the departure of Adams and a return to full health should do wonders for his fantasy production.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Jones will face an inevitable timeshare with Dillon, who emerged last season as a goal-line staple and solid pass catcher. When Jones returned from his injury in Week 12, he and Dillon split the workload as the 1A and 1B in the backfield rather than having Jones resume his full role as lead runner. Given how well Dillon played down the stretch last year, it is unlikely his workload gets scaled back this year, a fact that will inevitably cost Jones some snaps and touches. Jones will also have to adjust to a new-look Packers offense that faces a real prospect of diminished efficiency and scoring due to the loss of Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Jones finished 9th amongst RBs in red zone touches last year, and any reduction there will have an adverse impact on his fantasy production with Dillon slated to vulture much of the goal-line work. Jones has reached double-digit touchdowns in the last three seasons, but that run could be at risk this year.
2022 Bottom Line
The fact that Jones is proficient as both a runner and pass catcher and gets to work behind Aaron Rodgers means he will carry substantial weekly upside in 2022. While Jones will not be a workhorse back with Dillon in the picture, he should get most of the receiving work out of the backfield and his splits without Adams demonstrate his ability to make an impact through the air. Jones is best viewed as a lower end RB1 in his current situation, and warrants consideration in the second round of drafts.
