Fantasy Upside
As a rookie, Bijan Robinson ranked 32nd in rush attempt share (41%), yet finished the year as the RB17 in half-PPR points per game (12.8). This was due in large part to his work in the receiving game (58-487-4 on 83 targets) and his solid 4.5 YPC. His PPG would have looked much better if we removed his "migraine" game when he technically started but logged eight snaps, three of which he was lined up as a wide receiver. The Arthur Smith tomfoolery is finally behind us, which should increase Robinson's goal-line usage and decrease the RB rotation.
Fantasy Downside
Tyler Allgeier is a legitimately solid running back and deserves to see the field. Though his YPC (3.7) was much lower than Robinson's, his yards after contact were practically the same (2.95-to-3.10), and his YPRR (1.79) was one of the best at the position. It will be interesting to see if Robinson's limited goal-line work (three attempts from inside the five-yard-line, 48th among RBs) was a product of the player or the old head coach.
2024 Bottom Line
Bijan Robinson is in a fantastic position to put up big numbers on fantasy squads in 2024. While the cast of characters around him is strong (Drake London, Kyle Pitts), it doesn't run very deep, which should equate to a ton of usage for the No. 1 running back. The quarterback situation and Robinson's role in the backfield rotation are pointing way up heading into Year 2.
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