• Sam Darnold
  • QB
  • , New York Jets
  • 22
  • 220 lbs
  • 6' 4"
PtsPaYdsPaTDIntRuYds
11175100

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Draft note
by John Paulsen
Darnold struggled for most of his rookie season, scoring 14+ points in just one of his first eight games before getting injured in Week 9. When he came back, he had two 21+ point games in his last four. Rookie quarterbacks who have started a minimum of 12 games tend to fall into one of two categories. Either they average 17.0+ PPG or they average less than 14.0 PPG as rookies. The “good” rookie quarterbacks see their PPG decline by 6.0% in their second season, on average. The “bad” rookie quarterbacks see an average PPG increase of 26% in year two. Applying this increase to Darnold’s rookie year PPG (13.0) would yield 16.4 PPG, or solid QB2-type numbers.

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Scouting report

by Chris Kucharski

NYJ QB Sam Darnold - 2019 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside
Like most rookie quarterbacks, Sam Darnold had a roller coaster season, but the main positive to take from it was how good he was in December where he threw for 764 yards, six touchdowns and only one pick over a three-game span. Adam Gase takes over as the Jets head coach and ownership thinks he is the reason Darnold will drastically improve this season. The Jets also signed free agent RB Le’Veon Bell who will be a main target in the passing game. This should help Darnold’s overall numbers as well.

Fantasy Downside
Rookies play like rookies and that’s what we saw for three months from Darnold. But the Jets were willing to take those lumps last season which included 15 interceptions in 13 starts and a quarterback rating of 77.6. The addition of Bell will help but there are still questions about the overall Jets offense and support system for Darnold that could make this season still a work-in-progress.

2019 Bottom Line
We think Darnold will be a solid fantasy quarterback down the road but not in 2019. He ranks a low-end QB2 and taking him around his ADP, which is the 15th round is about right. He should serve as a back-up for your fantasy team as we are looking at 3,900 passing yards and 24 touchdowns and his interceptions should remain high. The Jets offense isn’t quite ready to take the NFL by storm so Darnold will have to keep growing.

2019 Strength of Schedule - NYJ
W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17
1
BUF
4
CLE
26
@NE
BYE21
@PHI
10
DAL
26
NE
9
@JAX
31
@MIA
22
NYG
13
@WAS
23
OAK
24
@CIN
31
MIA
7
@BAL
12
PIT
1
@BUF

Schedule difficulty based on schedule-adjusted, positional defensive ranking. Top DEF = 1, bottom DEF = 32.

2019 Game Stats
WkOppCompAttPaYdsPaTDIntYPAYPRRuAttYdsTDFumYPCPtsSnaps%
1BUF2841175104.276.2510000.0011.072/72100.0%
2CLE---------------
Per game28.0041.00175.001.0004.276.251.000000.0011.0072.00/72.00100.00%
Totals2841175104.276.2510000.001172/72100.00%
Previous Games vs. NE
SeasonWkOppCompAttPaYdsPaTDIntYPAYPRRuAttYdsTDFumYPCPtsSnaps%
201817@NE1628167005.9610.441280128.007.556/56100.00%
201812NE---------------
Average16.0028.00167.000.000.005.9610.441.0028.000.001.0028.007.4856.00/56.00100.00%