Darnold struggled for most of his rookie season, scoring 14+ points in just one of his first eight games before getting injured in Week 9. When he came back, he had two 21+ point games in his last four. Rookie quarterbacks who have started a minimum of 12 games tend to fall into one of two categories. Either they average 17.0+ PPG or they average less than 14.0 PPG as rookies. The “good” rookie quarterbacks see their PPG decline by 6.0% in their second season, on average. The “bad” rookie quarterbacks see an average PPG increase of 26% in year two. Applying this increase to Darnold’s rookie year PPG (13.0) would yield 16.4 PPG, or solid QB2-type numbers.
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