The crew at Dynasty League Football has provided us with a new batch of ADP data, with many players having experienced huge value swings since last month now that the NFL Draft dust has settled, OTAs are in full swing, and impactful free agent transactions are picking up.
June Dynasty Risers
May ADP: 239
June ADP: 148
Following the somewhat surprising release of veteran receiver Jeremy Maclin, dynasty owners were sent scrambling in search of the beneficiaries of the move. Second-year speedster Tyreek Hill was already being valued like a future star, but Conley was nearly going undrafted in May’s mock drafts with an ADP of just 239. He was by far the biggest riser, moving up 91 spots, which is unheard of climb in just one month. Conley was a workout warrior at the 2015 NFL Combine, resulting in scores in the 97th percentile or higher in most categories. While Conley was unfairly being overlooked prior to the Maclin transaction, dynasty owners are likely now overvaluing him at his current ADP, especially considering the Chiefs are unlikely to support three fantasy-relevant pass catchers.
Related: What Can We Expect from Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill?
May ADP: 217.2
June ADP: 150.3
Despite his status as a third-round NFL Draft pick, dynasty owners essentially ignored new Lions
wideout Kenny Golladay
soon after the conclusion of the draft. In May, his ADP was outside of the top 200, and in most rookie drafts I monitored, he was falling to the third or fourth round on a regular basis. Although the top two Lions
wide receiver spots are almost certain to be held by Golden Tate
and Marvin Jones
, there is opportunity for Golladay to serve as the third receiver with the departure of veteran Anquan Boldin
, who finished as the WR41 last season. Early reports from OTAs have called Golladay a “standout,” which is sometimes all it takes to get the attention of dynasty players.
May ADP: 186.7
June ADP: 133.3
Since the conclusion of the May dynasty mock drafts, former Patriots
bruiser Blount inked a deal with the Eagles
, and is presumed to hold down the lead back role for the team. Last season was yet another disappointing year for Ryan Mathews
, and as dynamic as Darren Sproles
is, he’s not suited to carry the load. An Eagles
beat writer has projected Blount to see in the neighborhood of 170 carries in 2017, so fantasy owners need to be careful not to overvalue him after his league-leading 18 rushing scores last season. That will not happen again and Blount will be a borderline fantasy option if a dip in touches happens as predicted.
May ADP: 215.7
June ADP: 163.3
Along the same path as Golladay, Cardinals
rookie receiver Chad Williams
also jumped over 50 spots from May to June. Williams was mostly off the radar for dynasty players before the Cardinals
selected him in the third round. Evidently, his ascension was not quickly processed by dynasty players, who spent late round picks on him in early rookie drafts and gave him a May ADP of 215.7. Also like Golladay, the buzz around Williams has been very positive early on, with his teammate Larry Fitzgerald
him to Boldin, while Arizona offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin mentioned
Williams as an eventual replacement for Fitzgerald himself.
May ADP: 170.7
June ADP: 119.3
Rarely do NFL fans and fantasy footballers get the kind of inside look that Peter King
gave us soon after the NFL Draft. In his article, it was revealed that while former Utah back Williams was not even on the 49ers
' draft board, new head coach Kyle Shanahan made the player a priority, leading the team to trade up and select Williams in the fourth round. Pair all of this with the seemingly constant doubt surrounding current starter Carlos Hyde
, and Williams has become a hot name in the fantasy community. Trusted San Francisco beat writer Matt Maiocco recently shared his opinion
that the rookie could “immediately unseat” Hyde as the Niners’ starter, which obviously makes him a value -- even at his current ADP of 119.3.
May ADP: 183.3
June ADP: 135.2
Okay, here’s one I don’t really understand. From May through June, the Patriots
pass-catching back rose over four rounds in the dynasty mock drafts. The only aspect of White’s dynasty value that has changed over that span is the departure of Blount, which nearly everyone saw as inevitable anyway. Despite White’s Super Bowl heroics, he can only be viewed as part of the Patriots
committee and not a player fantasy owners can start on a regular basis. At his new ADP of 135.2, White is quite overvalued.
May ADP: 135.7
June ADP: 95
The rise of another Patriots
back, Gillislee, makes a little more sense. Since the former Bills
backup made the leap to New England, his value has been skyrocketing and doesn’t show signs of stopping. In just two months, Gillislee has gone from a relative afterthought to the favorite to start for the defending Super Bowl champions and his ADP reflects that, rising over 100 spots since April. This does not guarantee the weekly decisions fantasy owners are required to make regarding the Patriots
backfield will be any easier than they have been in the past, though, so with his rising cost, Gillislee could be a prime player to shop and sell high.
May ADP: 206.2
June ADP: 166
Although it doesn’t receive nearly the same level of attention, the Ravens
' backfield could prove just as difficult for fantasy owners to decipher as the Patriots
'. Baltimore returns the veteran West, along with Buck Allen and talented second-year back Kenneth Dixon
, who is facing a four-game suspension to begin the season. On top of that group, the team also signed former Charger Danny Woodhead
, a pass-catching specialist who has also shown
he can be an effective lead back despite his size. With all of this competition, it is surprising to see West among the top risers, climbing over 40 spots according to the June dynasty ADP.
May ADP: 175.3
June ADP: 136.3
More rookie hype: Pittsburgh’s Conner has risen over three rounds in the past month. This movement is more about Steelers’ starter LeVeon Bell
than Conner himself. Bell’s history of both injuries and off-field issues have been well-documented, so, unfortunately, there is always a risk he misses time, which has ultimately led to a value jump for the rookie Conner. As a twelfth-rounder, Conner still presents dynasty owners with some nice upside even if his role is the primary backup to the superstar Bell.
May ADP: 131.3
June ADP: 98.3
Much like Gillislee, little has changed over the past month for the Lynch, the presumed Raiders
starting back. His continued rise in dynasty value is simply due to more and more fantasy players coming around to the idea that he can have a productive 2017 campaign after a year away from the game. Whether that is true or not remains to be seen, and will depend greatly on Lynch’s ability to stay on the field. Also like Gillislee, Lynch has now climbed into the top 100 players, making drafting him a riskier proposition. As the hype continues to grow in the seasonal fantasy community, expect that to impact Lynch’s value in long-term leagues as well, making him another sell-high option.
Related: How Effective Will Marshawn Lynch be in 2017?
Check back next week, when I’ll tackle some of the biggest fallers based on June dynasty ADP.
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