DFS Quarterback Analysis: Week 10

Nov 09, 2017

An in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the QBs on the Week 10 slate is provided below. Analysis includes how to approach each of the chalk options, as well as how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk

This is an interesting week overall as we have Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott who project as our chalkiest options. Typically, most DFS players have likely found success by paying down at quarterback more often than not this year. It just comes down to your overall roster construction. There isn’t a great deal of risk of fading either of these two quarterbacks given how spread out ownership typically is for this position. We have some studs in the other skill positions that may make you more apt to pay down at quarterback, especially given how condensed quarterback scoring typically is. In my early builds, I’ve found myself in the value range, which I’ll touch on more later.

Matthew Stafford ($8,200/$6,8000) is in an amazing spot against a Browns defense ranked 32nd in quarterback aFPA. The Lions also boast one of the highest implied team totals on the slate at 28.25 points. As 13-point favorites, it’s possible the Lions don’t need to throw as much, but the Browns have been a pass funnel defense this year, and the Lions have scored 82% of their touchdowns inside the red zone via the pass.
Dak Prescott ($8,800/$7,300) and the Cowboys have the sixth-highest implied team total on the main slate at 23.75 points. Dak has been on fire this season with 23.5 or more fantasy points in four of his last five starts. He’s done a great job at scoring touchdowns with his limited pass attempts as he has the fourth-highest touchdown rate (6.2%) this season, but he ranks 18th in pass attempts. This game has shootout potential as it has the week’s highest over/under (50.5), trouncing the next highest total of 46.5. Dak garners the high floor and ceiling we love with the use of his legs, ranking sixth in rushing yards among quarterbacks and tied with Cam Newton for a position-high 4 rushing touchdowns. The only thing you worry about with Dak is the potential of Ezekiel Elliott (if active) stealing some of his red zone touchdown potential.