Exploiting Defenses in DFS - Week 16

Exploiting Defenses in DFS - Week 16

By Mike Woellert (IDP Expert), last update Dec 24, 2015

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Mike is an IDP veteran, writing about and ranking IDP for over six season. He finished 6th in overall IDP rankings and 1st overall LB rankings in 2014 at FantasyPros. When he's not poring over IDP depth charts, he can be found agonizing over his Cleveland sports teams.

Follow Mike Woellert on Twitter: @Mike_Woellert.

When it comes to DFS lineups, looking at matchups and opportunities will be key in constructing a winning lineup. Everyone knows that Brandon Marshall can be a top receiver and sometimes the matchup doesn't play out, like last week. Marshall is typically one of the top-priced wide receivers, but there will always be one with a cheaper price tag in a similar spot for production with a better matchup.

We’ve hit Week 16 and sample sizes have become trends. If a particular cornerback is getting burned, he’s someone to target each week. The same goes for run defense. At this point of the season, if a defense is bad, they aren’t going to magically improve, so start to use the numbers to your advantage.

It’s one thing to look at match-ups and see which team is allowing points to a position. Each week, I’ll help you exploit specific defensive players and also touch on non-skill offensive players (read: the offensive line) to help you make the right choices on which players to roster and which players to fade in DFS lineups.

Last week we had our hits with Philip Rivers, Antonio Brown, Jeremy Maclin, Matthew Stafford and David Johnson. We also had our misses with Adrian Peterson, Denard Robinson and Calvin Johnson. Let’s enjoy the wins and try to increase our hit rate even more in Week 16.


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Situations to Exploit in the Passing Game

The Steelers draw a favorable matchup with Baltimore this week. Antonio Brown is matchup-proof at this point, but the other receiver I'd like to have some exposure to this week is Martavis Bryant. Bryant's target volume has been consistent all season with no fewer than seven in a game. He will draw cornerback Shareece Wright in coverage this week, who has been below average in coverage this season. In the last two weeks Wright has allowed 11 catches, and he got toasted against Seattle Week 14, allowing two scores. On the year, he's allowing a 13.5 yard per catch average. Bryant is a burner and he and Ben Roethlisberger should be able to take advantage of this matchup.

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