Jake's Week 9 NFL Player Prop Bets

Every week, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

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Week 8: 2-5, -$366

Overall: 31-27, +$13

0.19% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop

Note: alts will not count toward the record (wins/losses) but will be included in ROI % and +/- $ totals

Week 8 Recap

This past week was by far the most frustrating of the season. We lost over three units and went 2-5. A few of the losses this week were absurd. Darnell Mooney o2.5 recs closed at 4.5 because London was ruled out, and it still lost. Prescott was going to cruise over 22.5 completions, but they were getting blown out, so he didn't finish the game, and Rattler would've flown over the 33.5 attempts, but he was benched in favor of Shough in the 3rd quarter, which was pretty surprising given how Rattler has played well so far this year.

Still, at the end of the day, he's a former 5th-round pick, and Shough is a 2nd-round pick, so they made the switch, which resulted in scoring 0 points for the rest of the game. The RB2 unders were also obnoxiously painful. The Dolphins absolutely curb-stomped the Falcons as 7-point underdogs and were able to run the ball with their backs more than they ever had all year, which instantly sank the Ollie under rushing yards bet. Emanuel Wilson had two rushing yards with 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, but by then the Steelers' lead was gone, and the Packers began to just run, run, and run. I remember checking Wilson's rushing line live, and it was o/u 11.5.

In the future, I am going to be extra cautious with the RB2 unders as they're just super game script dependent and ultimately just very thin. All in all, 2-5 this week was the worst possible outcome, and I am expecting better days ahead.

Week 9 Bets

Jonnu Smith OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards

Jonnu has run the most routes out of the Steelers' TE trio (Muth, Washington, and Jonnu himself). The NFL's biggest surprise of the 2025 season is the Colts, and they're 3-point road favorites over the Steelers in this game. I expect an elevated Steelers pass volume. Before last week's game against the Titans, the Colts were allowing the fourth-highest PROE against opposing offenses. The Colts defense is allowing the 3rd most yards per game to the tight end position, and the Colts defense has also done a good job of limiting explosive plays. I expect Arod to play his game and look to check it down to Jonnu frequently in this matchup.

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