Scott Smith’s Top Plays for UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O’Malley 2

This card features a bantamweight title rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley headlining the event, alongside a stacked lineup of main and preliminary card fights. Kayla Harrison looks to achieve WMMA gold in a title match against Julian Pena in the co-main event. Our simulation model looks to uncover the top fights to target this week on a card filled with heavy favorites. We combine our simulations and DFS projections to identify the best fighters to play for DFS cash game lineups this week.

Best Bets for UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O’Malley 2

Merab Dvalishvili to win via decision (-150, FanDual)

Fight Breakdown: Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley

We have seen this fight play out once before, and while I think the fight was closer than most remembered, I don’t see much of a reason for the fight to play out much differently. Some will point out that O’Malley came into that fight banged up and that he has cleaned up some things in his life. While all of that can be true, it doesn’t change the style of the fight.

O’Malley will still be the superior striker and have to deal with the rinse-and-repeat wrestling of Merab. I simply think that Merab’s style is kryptonite for O’Malley. O’Malley has to be perfect in his striking to land that big one that will put Merab away. Merab has only finished one fight inside the UFC, so his win condition is pretty consistent. I like the prop here. My model gives Merab a 67% chance of winning this week, and simulations have him winning via decision in 65% of those results.

Risk: 1.5 units on FanDual to win 1 unit.

Patchy Mix to win (-180, DraftKings)

Fight Breakdown: Patchy Mix vs Mario Bautista

For years, Mix has been one of the top fighters outside of the UFC. He will have a big advantage in the grappling department this week. I think the line should be closer to -300 in favor of Mix, but we are getting a muted line due to Mix making his debut in the promotion.

The biggest threat for Mix will come in the form of Bautista’s leg kicks damaging Mix early. I expect Mix to come in with a solid game plan to offset that threat. I look for Mix to get the fight to the ground early with his wrestling, where he can threaten with control and submission attempts.

Risk: 1.8 units on DrafKings to win 1 unit.

DFS Cash Game Plays for UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O’Malley 2

Our strategy for MMA DFS cash games revolves around creating lineups that are projected to get at least four wins on fight night. Targeting fighters in 5-round fights gives us more scoring upside, and both fighters are usually featured in our lineups. Scoring favors grappling-heavy fighters, with takedowns and control time being heavily targeted in our lineup construction. Finish rate and stylistic matchups are other considerations when searching for a winning combination on fight night.

Premium Plays ($9000 and Above)

Kayla Harrison $9700 - Harrison is the top play in our model this week, and she is priced that way. Her combination of projected win rate, scoring, and finishing upside gives her the top profile amongst fighters on this week’s DFS slate. It’s a situation where she is the more talented and physical fighter. Add in the fact that she has five rounds to work and a heavy grappling style with finishing upside, and Harrison is worth paying for this week.

Wang Cong $9100 - Cong will be the superior striker in this fight. Add in the fact that da Silva came in 6 pounds over the weight limit, and there is even more reason to favor Cong. I think Cong will have the speed advantage and be the more technical fighter in the striking exchanges. A miss that big brings a lot of questions into da Silva’s preparation into question. Cong is a strong fighter without those questions and should have a solid shot at finding a finish this week.

Merab Dvalishvili $9000 - Merab is the headline of this card and should be in nearly all cash game lineups. His scoring upside is unparalleled on this card due to his rinse and repeat wrestling combined with his cardio. The knock against Merab is that he has only finished one fight in the UFC. Stacking the main event makes a lot of sense this week. Merab has our highest projection on the week at 113.88 DFS points.

Midrange Plays ($8000 - $8900)

Patchy Mix $8500 - For years, Mix has been one of the best fighters outside of the UFC. He is making his debut in the UFC, so this will be the first DFS performance that we will get out of him. Mix will have a big grappling advantage this week, and that grappling should be at the forefront of his game plan to offset the leg kicks of Bautista. I think Mix gets the fight to the ground and has a solid shot of getting a finish this week.

Serghei Spivac $8300 - Spivac looked great on the scale this week. When Spivac wins, he usually scores big. In this fight, He will have the grappling and submission advantage against Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta will have some striking advantage, but his win condition will be landing a big shot. If Spivac gets the fight to the ground, the fight may be over, as it will be difficult for Cortes-Acosta to get up.

Value Plays ($8000 and Below)

Mark Choinsky $7300 - On a card with few viable underdogs, Choinsky makes his debut with a wrestling background. Mederos isn’t a world beater, so Choinsky should be able to get off his offense and score a few takedowns. I think Choinsky can pull off the upset, but if he doesn’t, he should at a minimum return a solid score in relation to his salary.

Sean O’Malley $7200 - The first fight was closer than many are willing to admit, with O’Malley taking the 5th round, showing more cardio than most thought he had. His striking is elite and will be his advantage in this fight. We have seen Merab get hurt before, and O’Malley has the skills to do it. Merab has an 8% finish rate in the UFC, so O’Malley should make it the distance.

Jeka Saragih $6700 - Saragih is the punt play of the week. He is boom or bust as he has barely scored 10 DFS points in his two losses. He does, however, have the power to put the fight away early. Saragih, if he hits, is the type of punt play that all but guarantees a win in cash games. The flip side of the coin is that he could give you absolutely nothing.

Cash Game Lineup ($50,000)

Kayla Harrison $9700

Merab Dvalishvili $9000

Patchy Mix $8500

Serghei Spivac $8300

Mark Choinsky $7300

Sean O’Malley $7200

Analysis: This lineup locks 5-round fighters (Harrison, Dvalishvili, and O’Malley) with strong floors and finish potential. We stack the main event and get access to fighters with grappling-heavy styles.

Projections for UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O’Malley 2

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