Touchdown Luck: 2025 Fantasy Football Regression Candidates to Target and Avoid
Fantasy football isn’t always an easy game. We’re always chasing volume for our roster because it’s the best way to predict the points a player is likely to score. The problem, though, is that sometimes we just get unlucky. Our wide receiver, who is getting all of the targets, gets tackled at the 1-yard line. Our running back gets all the chunk yardage on a successful drive and gets vultured by the backup.
Raw regression numbers don’t always tell the whole story. Statistical models can identify players likely to improve or decline; the real value comes from understanding why certain players were touchdown-lucky or unlucky a season ago and how that might manifest itself in 2025. Let's start off by examining last year's biggest touchdown outliers and translate those findings into targets for your upcoming draft.
Running Backs Ready to Bounce Back
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