Week 4 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report
Friends don't let friends bet NFL sides on game day. I understand the appeal of getting action down on a game about to kick off, but please, for the love of all things sacred, don't do it. I understand that most casual bettors out there don't have time to comb through every news blurb and injury report the moment it comes out. It's difficult for most bettors to feel informed early in the week, or even more, right when next week's line is posted on Sunday evening for the following week's games.
In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. This is easier said than done.
Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, indicating that the book feels they've priced the game correctly. So unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five to six figures on a side, your +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.
Each week of the season, I'll provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. Lookahead lines offer a sneak peek at how bookmakers value teams before the start of the week, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening- after the previous week's games are complete.
Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down that you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, which is easier to do once you know the opening number. The limits are lower in this lookahead window, but that's not a problem for about 95% of you reading.
When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. It's an effort to get ahead of the market movement to land the best of the number. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 3 evaluation of the team and market, I will have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 4.
For reference, I'll use the initial odds released by Westgate back in April to show you how the game opened. Then, I'll note the consensus for each current Week 4 lookahead line at DraftKings, with the spread listed based on the home team.
| Game | Opening Line | Current Line | Opening Total | Current Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Giants | +4.5 | +7 | 44.5 | 43.5 |
| Saints @ Falcons | -4.5 | -1 | 44.5 | 46 |
| Rams @ Bears | -1.5 | -3 | 47 | 42 |
| Vikings @ Packers | -4.5 | -2.5 | 45 | 42.5 |
| Steelers @ Colts | -0.5 | -1 | 44.5 | 41 |
| Jaguars @ Texans | -3.5 | -5.5 | 47.5 | 46 |
| Broncos @ Jets | -6 | 7.5 | 42.5 | 38 |
| Eagles @ Buccaneers | +1.5 | +1 | 47 | 47 |
| Bengals @ Panthers | +1.5 | +7 | 46 | 43 |
| Commanders @ Cardinals | -2 | -4.5 | 45 | 49.5 |
| Patriots @ 49ers | -11.5 | -9.5 | 45 | 41 |
| Browns @ Raiders | +1.5 | +1 | 43.5 | 39.5 |
| Chiefs @ Chargers | +3 | +4 | 49 | 43.5 |
| Bills @ Ravens | -3 | -1 | 47.5 | 45.5 |
| Titans @ Dolphins | -6.5 | -1.5 | 46 | 39.5 |
| Seahawks @ Lions | -6 | -4 | 49 | 48.5 |
Week 4 Lookahead Lines Takeaways
- It matters less early in the season, but I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these things are already baked into the number, but I believe there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.
- I'm including game totals this season and looking for any edge we can exploit. I prefer team totals over full-game totals, and while we don't have that information specifically, it can be derived from the spread and total, so we know the range to expect.
- The market is starting to adjust to the scoring changes around the league. In the chart above, you'll see that the total has dropped in 13 of the 16 games compared to May's opener. On average, Week 4 totals dropped by 2.34 points, and that includes WSH/ARZ (up 4.5 points from 45 to 49.5)
Week 4
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Cowboys @ Giants (+7)
Market sentiment was pretty low on the Giants coming into the season, but what they've seen is bad enough for this to move 2.5 points out to a full +7. The Giants take on the Browns in Week 3, which will give us a common opponent to factor in after the Cowboys wrecked the Browns in Cleveland in Week 1. Situational bettors will likely love getting +7 on a short week to back a home underdog.
Saints @ Falcons (-1)
This could end up being a massive game in the race for the top spot in the NFC South. In what's likely to be a tightly contested three-team race between the Buccaneers and these two clubs, the head-to-head tiebreakers become critical late in the season. Both clubs face difficult Week 3 matchups, albeit at home to the Eagles and Chiefs, respectively, but I don't think this moves to a full -3 on either side.
Rams @ Bears (-3)
The early returns on Caleb Williams and the Bears offense have been disappointing, but we're entering a point in the schedule where things need to start looking better. Starting in Week 3 against a beaten-up Colts defense, the Bears are set to play against some of the worst defenses in the league over the next month and a half (Colts, Rams, Panthers, Commanders, and Cardinals). It's time to turn it on, Caleb.
Vikings @ Packers (-2.5)
This is a pretty impactful 2-point move, down to -2.5 after opening at -4.5. The Vikings have been better than anticipated, and the Packers took a slight hit post-Jordan Love's knee injury, but he's trending toward playing in Week 3, making it very likely that he suits up here. It'll be interesting to see how Brian Flores and the Vikings' defense adjusts after Love and the Packers cooked Minnesota at home 33-10 in a must-win game on New Year's Eve last season.
Jaguars @ Texans (-5.5)
These two AFC South clubs split their 2023 matchups, with each team winning on the road. C.J. Stroud was awesome in both meetings, averaging 292 passing yards while completing 70% of his attempts with a 4-0 TD-to-interception ratio. This is a new look Jaguars defense, with defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen dialing up man-to-man looks at the league's highest rate, but injuries in the secondary are piling up. I like the Texans here at less than -6.
Bengals @ Panthers (+7)
The Andy Dalton Revenge Game! I didn't have this one on my 2024 NFL Bingo Card, but here we are. This is a soft spot in the Bengals' schedule, and though it's a road game off of a short week, they need to take care of business here if we're buying them as a true contender in the AFC. Their injury report for Week 3 isn't promising, so that'll be something to monitor in the coming weeks.
Chiefs @ Chargers (+4)
This total has plummeted from 49 down through multiple key numbers and is now sitting at 43.5. The Chargers defense has played well to start the season, leading the league in yards (19.0) and points per drive allowed (0.54) through two weeks. This presents a new test for Jim Harbaugh and company, and they'll likely look to exploit Kansas City's susceptible run defense. The Harbaugh hype will explode if they can steal this early-season meeting in the division.
Bills @ Ravens (-1.5)
Baltimore's Week 3 matchup in Dallas looks crucial and feels like a must-win game, even though it's just Week 3. They host the Bills in Week 4, and even though Buffalo's suffered multiple injuries on the defensive side of the ball over the past month, their defensive line is still rolling at full force. The Ravens offensive line was dominated in the second half of Week 2's loss to Maxx Crosby and the Raiders, and I think Ed Oliver and Greg Rosseau could do more of the same, forcing Lamar Jackson and company to play left-handed. I like the Bills here getting points.
