Scott Smith’s Top Plays for UFC Saudi Arabia: Whittaker vs Aliskerov

The UFC has a much awaited card in Saudi Arabia this week. Unfortunately, the card has fallen apart after multiple fighters dropped off the card, including the main event. Ikram Aliskerov backed out of last week’s fight for a main event slot against Robert Whittaker. The remainder of the card features a number of grappling-heavy fighters that should score well in DFS contests. Navigating other the lines associated with other fights will be key to having a successful week.

Best Bets for UFC Saudi Arabia: Whittaker vs Aliskerov

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Rinat Fakhretdinov + Shara Magomedov + Magomedov Gadzhiyasulov to win (-102, DraftKings)

Fight Breakdown: Rinat Fakhretdinov vs Nicolas Dalby

Fakhretdinov will have a huge grappling advantage here, and that should be enough for him to dictate the fight. The determining factor of this fight will be conditioning. Rinat was in danger in the third round of his last fight and Dalby comes into every fight in shape. Dalby will have a technical advantage on the feet, but Rinat likes to throw bombs. Ultimately his wrestling should be enough to lead him to victory.

Fight Breakdown: Magomedov Gadzhiyasulov vs Brendson Ribeiro

Ribeiro will be the bigger man and probably the more powerful striker. The issue for him is that he is limited with his output and conditioning. Add in the fact that he will be at a serious disadvantage in the grappling department, and it should be a successful debut for Gadzhiyasulov. Magomedov is a technical striker who doesn’t force the wrestling but rather times them in well when the openings are present. Gadzhiyasulov will be the more talented and technical fighter who should be able to take advantage of the defensive flaws in Ribeiro’s game.

Fight Breakdown: Shara Magomedov vs Antonio Trocoli

Trocoli is the biggest underdog on the card, and like Aliskerov, he dropped off last week’s card to fight this week. There is concern with the travel and back-to-back weight cut weeks in play. Add in the fact that this will be his debut, and it’s easy to pick Magomedov. Magomedov has to tighten up some technical flaws, but his power and killer instincts will shine through in this fight.

Risk: 1.02 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

DFS Cash Game Plays For UFC Louisville

Our strategy for MMA DFS cash games revolves around creating lineups that are projected to get at least four wins on fight night. Targeting fighters in 5-round fights give us more scoring upside and both fighters are usually featured in our lineups. Scoring favors grappling heavy fighters with takedowns and control time being heavily targeted in our lineup construction. Finish rate and stylistic matchups are other considerations when searching for a winning combination on fight night.

Premium Plays ($9000 and Above)

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov $9300 - While Magomed is making his UFC debut, this fight sets up nicely for him to dominate with wrestling and find a finish. New fighters debuting as the most expensive fighter on the slate have busted before. I don’t see that happening here but the danger is there when fighting someone as old as Ribeiro. I don’t expect the cardio or grappling defense of Ribeiro to hold up in this fight.

Rinat Fakhretdinov $9500 - Another fight where a Russian wrestler will be heavily considered. Rinat will have the advantage in grappling but there is some cause for concern based upon how both of these fighters have fought recently. Rinat struggled with his cardio and was almost finished whereas, Dalby overcame an onslaught and always comes in shape. Rinat is the pick but his cardio will have to be monitored.

Midrange Plays ($8000 - $8900)

Shara Magomedov $8800 - Magomedov sits atop the midrange plays this week. He is a solid striker that needs to work on his defensive wrestling and conditioning a bit. He scored 97 DFS points in his UFC debut and will be live for a finish this week against Antoni Trocoli.

Sergei Pavlovich $8700 - Pavlovich looked like a world beater up until his last fight against Tom Aspinall. Pavlovich scored at least 105 DFS points in six straight fights and will need to be considered for lineups just based on that scoring history alone. It is a heavyweight fight, so the flip side is that Pavlovich has averaged 3.5 DFS points in his losses.

Muin Gafarov $8500 - Gafarov will be in a tough spot and likely fighting for his job in this fight. While Kang has power and Gafarov may be willing to trade, he will have to use his wrestling to win this fight which could give him the scoring upside to top 100 DFS points at a cheap price.

Robert Whittaker $8400 - Whittaker headlines this card, and the 5-round main event status is normally the target. There is some worry with Whittaker, however, in that he has only topped 100 DFS points one time in the last ten fights. Normally, it’s worth targeting both sides of the main event, but I don’t know that it is necessary this week. If you are high on Aliskerov then you can consider skipping Whittaker this week.

Value Plays ($7900 and Below)

Felipe Lima $7900 - Lima is making his UFC debut on short notice a weight class up. While that usually isn’t a recipe for success, this fight should be close. Lima has never been finished, and that alone should bring a decent return at this price point. Should he win the fight, he could be the highest scorer among value plays.

Ikram Aliskerov $7800 - Aliskerov has looked the part against lesser competition. He is being thrown into the fire this week against Whittaker who has fought the best at middleweight. In two fights thus far he is averaging nearly 110 DFS points. He still has questions to answer as to what his ceiling is, but if he beats Whittaker, it will likely be off the back of his wrestling with a high score.

Alexander Volkov $7500 - Volkov has the ability to break the slate here against Pavlovich. His height, experience, and striking are all to his advantage against a fighter coming off a knockout. Volkov himself has held up well since his knockout loss at the hands of Derrick Lewis. He has multiple ways to win and will likely score north of 100 should he win.

Cash Game Lineup:

Renat Fakhretdinov $9500

Shara Magomedov $8800

Muin Gafarov $8500

Johnny Walker $8200

Ikram Aliskerov $7800

Alexander Volkov $7500

UFC Saudi Arabia Picks and Projections

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