Week 9 Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 02, 2023

Thursday Night Single-Game DFS: Titans vs. Steelers

Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the single-game DFS breakdown for Week 9 Thursday Night Football. This Thursday we have a critical AFC matchup, with the Tennessee Titans on the road facing the Pittsburgh Steelers. With the Titans seeking to climb up in the AFC South and the Steelers, the current six-seed, looking to hold onto their spot in the conference standings, the stakes are high in this one despite the over/under being anything but.

Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Titans (+3, 17) @ Steelers (-3, 20); Over/Under 37

The Pittsburgh Steelers, who were unsure if Kenny Pickett would start earlier in the week, will have the starting quarterback under center for this one. With a record teetering at 4-3, the Steelers sit as 3-point favorites at home against Tennessee, who sit at a 3-4, tied for third in their division. The implied point is at a mere 37 points. This reflects the conservative nature of both teams' offensive schemes, with each generally showing a distinct preference for production via the run game. The Steelers, counterintuitively attempt more passes than average, yet their inability to sustain drives has been a notable detriment to their overall scoring ability. They're fourth in the league in pace but only 21st in pass plays per game, a statistic that highlights their inefficiency in converting plays to points, and their squandering of an above-average pass rate in neutral game scripts.

The Titans, on the other hand, are the slowest-paced team in the league during neutral game scripts and attempt the lowest number of pass plays per game. Will Levis' Week 8 performance, where he threw 29 times, could actually be an indicator of a potential shift in the Titans' offensive approach with a new quarterback. The Titans might still lean toward their established run game, but Levis' arm talent could provide a new dimension to their overall plan of attack. However, given the Steelers' defensive line prowess, and their own conservative playcalling, Vegas is having a hard time seeing the shootout potential in this one.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

For Pittsburgh, Pickett's metrics this season have been less than stellar. His performance ranks outside the top 30 in completion percentage versus expectation and EPA per game. Pickett is at the bottom of the list of the 40 eligible quarterbacks in true drive success rate. His true passer rating and touchdown production are equally uninspiring. His deep ball attempts per game are among the league's lowest, partly a symptom of an offensive system that cannot provide ample opportunities for playmakers like George Pickens and Diontae Johnson. Despite these talented playmakers, the team's average yards of separation at target is the seventh lowest in the NFL. Pickett's on-target pass rate is outside the top 30. He averages 3.1 rushing yards per game.

In contrast, Levis, despite the very limited resume, put up some serious numbers in his first game. Four touchdowns, a league-high in adjusted yards per attempt, and the best completion percent versus expectation in the NFL is nothing to scoff at. And even when accounting for a small sample size, his true drive success rate sits right at league average, another promising indicator considering the limited available tats. With the Steelers' defense showing sporadic weaknesses this season, ranking bottom 10 in aFPA to wide receivers and tight ends, Levis's potential and his ability to exploit this Pittsburgh unit might be the key to unlocking the Titans' offensive ceiling.