NBA Player Prop Bets: Mathurin Takes the Stage
Last night was a great appetizer to the NBA season, but tonight, we get the main course with twelve games on the slate and a lot of action for tonight. This offseason saw a lot of player movement, combined with some great rookie talent to add to the mix. I am expecting a lot of surprises and incredible opportunities.
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October 25th NBA Player Prop Bets
Tonight’s plays are targeting three young rising stars who have excellent opportunities to take advantage of a key player either out or lost in free agency.
Benedict Mathurin (IND) Over 14.5 Points (-120 Bet365)
This is playable to 15.5 -125.
Benedict Mathurin is taking the stage and moving up to the starting lineup. Last year’s starter, Buddy Hield, is expected to come off the bench as rumors swirl about his time in Indiana. I am expecting Mathurin to take a big step up this season and to start off hot against the Washington Wizards. Looking at the splits between Mathurin on the court and Hield off, there is a net +7.1 points per 100 possessions (31.2 points vs 24.1).
In today’s matchup, this is a pace-up spot for both teams, with the Pacers playing at a 103.1 pace rate last season and the Wizards at 100.2. The Wizards will look very different this season with Jordan Poole and without Kristaps Porzingas leading to a faster pace. With a game total of 235, we should see plenty of scoring and Mathurin benefiting from multiple factors here.
Risk: 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Scottie Barnes (TOR) Over 15.5 Points (-125 Bet365)
This offseason, the Toronto Raptors lost Fred VanVleet to free agency, leaving a significant scoring void in the starting rotation. Enter the fourth overall pick in the 2021 NBA draft, Scottie Barnes. Last season, Barnes had a solid season, averaging 35 minutes a game and scoring 15.3 points per game. Without VanVleet, Barnes will be looked to step it up a notch and be the top scorer alongside Pascal Siakam.
In the two preseason games Barnes played where he logged 25 minutes or more, he scored 23 and 22 points, shooting 18 for 28 and five of nine from three-point range. I expect Barnes to carry this hot play into the regular season against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Last season, he averaged 33.5 minutes, scoring 19.5 points against them. I love Barnes’ upside this season and expect him to rise to the challenge.
Risk: 1.25 units to win 1 unit
Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM) Over 19.5 Points (-105 Bet365)
The Memphis Grizzlies take on the New Orleans Pelicans in a game without their star, Ja Morant. In his place will be incoming guard Marcus Smart. While Smart brings intense defensive presence and leadership, he will not add significant scoring. The Grizzlies will turn to Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. Last season, Jackson saw an incredible increase in usage without Morant in the lineup: 19.5% with him in the lineup and 29.8% without. Jackson saw an increase basically in every category, with the team looking for him to be the primary ball scorer. Specifically, Jackson’s points per 100 possessions went from 25.3 to 36.7 without Morant.
Risk: 1.05 units to win 1 unit
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