Week 4 London Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Sep 30, 2023

London Game Single-Game DFS: Falcons vs. Jaguars

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

It's the first international game of the 2023 NFL season, so it's time to cross the Atlantic as the upstart Atlanta Falcons face the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars. In a matchup that few would have predicted to be so compelling before the season started, both teams are at a crossroads. The Falcons are 2-1, surprisingly tied for first in their division, while the Jaguars are trying to avoid sinking into the AFC abyss after a puzzling loss to the Texans. Let’s explore how these storylines and more will impact your DFS strategy for this intriguing single-game slate.

Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Falcons (+3, 20) vs. Jaguars (-3, 23); Over/Under 43

If you ask the Falcons, they'll say that being 2-1 has a lot to do with their commitment to the ground game. They’ve been one of the run-heaviest teams in the league and have opted for a slightly faster tempo than the league average. However, aside from a few highlight runs by Bijan Robinson, this approach hasn't translated into a high-scoring, explosive, DFS-friendly offense. While their run-first mentality has kept games close, it also limits their upside, reducing their ability to post 30-plus points on any given Sunday. As they head into this matchup, the Falcons will be looking to keep the game low-scoring, but that strategy could backfire if the Jaguars' offense comes to life.

Contrastingly, the Jaguars have been embracing a faster, more pass-heavy approach. Unfortunately, this hasn't translated into a high-scoring offense either, particularly in the last two games. Much of their fate rests on the arm of Trevor Lawrence, who needs to outmaneuver the Falcons' defense to force a higher-scoring affair. The betting market is also indicating a defensive battle, with the Jaguars holding an implied total of 23 and the Falcons at 20, putting the total at just 43 points, second lowest on the slate.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE) represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

Trevor Lawrence started the season as a dark-horse MVP candidate. To put it mildly, the start has been rocky. His lack of production is evident in his xDrive Success and EPA metrics in the chart above, the latter of which he ranks in the bottom four among all starting quarterbacks. The hopes of the Jaguars putting up points largely rest on his shoulders. The team's above-average pace and passing volume mean nothing if Lawrence can't find a rhythm, especially against a Falcons defense that has shown improvement, but still ranks league-average in team PFF defensive grades.

Desmond Ridder isn't faring much better. His efficiency metrics are well below average, and he leads an offense that has been both low-volume and low-efficiency, which typically results in - you guessed it - low production. These factors, combined with Arthur Smith's complete lack of concern about the number of times his elite playmakers touch the ball, make predicting ceiling performances for skill players in the Falcons' offense incredibly difficult. Ridder's challenges are a significant part of why this game has one of the lowest projected point totals for the week.