Week 3 Pick Advice For NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pools (2023)
This article was written by PoolGenius, who will provide 4for4 readers with NFL survivor pick and pick'em pool advice for Week 3 2023, and one more week after.
We've got a curveball coming in terms of NFL Week 3 pool picks, as it's the first week of the 2023 season with so many big favorites and lopsided matchups. That makes for more potential options for survivor pool picks, but a more select group of value pick opportunities in pick'em and confidence pools.
In this article, we first identify four of the most compelling NFL Week 3 picks that can help you get an edge on your opponents in pick'em contests. Then, we break down the pros and cons of five teams that you're probably considering for your Week 3 survivor pick.
Note: Data in this post is accurate as of Wednesday, September 20th at 12:00 pm ET.
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Week 3 Picks For NFL Pick'em Contests
Before we get to the Week 3 pick analysis for pick'em pools, it's important to clarify one thing. We’re not suggesting that you make all four picks listed below (especially the upset picks) because optimal strategy involves balancing risk with value.
For example, if you're playing in a season-long pick'em contest against only 20 or 30 other entries, you usually do better off focusing on favorites in the early going and resisting the temptation to make a bunch of upset picks. You can typically still identify a sufficient number of contrarian opportunities (such as picking the less popular side in toss-up games) that give you an edge to win your pool without taking on a bunch of extra risk.
However, if you need to beat thousands of other entries, or if you're playing in a sizable weekly prize pool where the standings reset each week, a super conservative pick strategy is rarely best. The optimal approach will instead call for more calculated gambles on riskier, unpopular picks. It all depends on your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational elements like your current place in the standings. (Our products take all that stuff into account.)
With that said, here are the Week 3 picks for game-winner-based NFL pick'em pools that provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your entry, by taking on only a modest amount of incremental risk—or no additional risk at all.
Our Favorite Favorite
Buffalo Bills (at Washington Commanders)
Point Spread: -6.5
Win Odds: 72% (6th)
Popularity: 89% (9th)
For the second week in a row, we are back with Buffalo. The Bills aren’t as big a favorite this week, as there are five other teams favored by more than a touchdown in Week 3. But the public is going very heavy on a lot of big favorites this week, and relatively speaking, is a bit more willing to pick the Commanders upset in this matchup.
To put it in perspective, Miami is also a 6.5-point favorite against Denver, and 97% of the public is picking the Dolphins, compared to only 89% picking the Bills here. Baltimore and Jacksonville, the two favorites just above Buffalo, are also being picked 97% of the time. So the public is willing to pick against Buffalo about 3-4 times more often than it is picking against other similarly large favorites.
So if you want to pick a big upset this week, this game is your worst option from a risk-vs.-reward standpoint and there is relative value in sticking with the Bills.
Value Favorite
Cleveland Browns (vs. Tennessee Titans)
Point Spread: -3
Win Odds: 59% (t-10th)
Popularity: 58% (14th)
The Browns lost RB Nick Chubb for the season and didn’t look very good on offense in primetime. Sometimes, the public can have a stronger reaction to the primetime island games that are more widely viewed live, and you can take advantage of it with your picks the following week.
The Browns are still a field goal favorite in this game according to betting odds, and there are five other Week 3 favorites with a lower chance to win. But Cleveland is still coming at a slight discount in terms of pick popularity. Cleveland’s defense has been one of the best in the NFL through two games, and provided that the Browns can stop spotting their opponents' defensive scores, they can deliver a bit of value this week.
Underdog Gambles
Atlanta Falcons (at Detroit Lions)
Point Spread: +3
Win Odds: 41% (t-22nd)
Popularity: 18% (23rd)
Atlanta at Detroit gives you your best opportunity to pick against a very popular favorite who is only expected to win by a field goal. The Lions face several potential injury issues that are driving this point spread down a bit, and the public just doesn’t seem to love Atlanta’s run-heavy style even though it has produced a 2-0 start.
This game also demonstrates how you can leverage betting market odds and pick popularity to increase your chances of winning weekly prize contests. Atlanta’s chances of winning in Week 3 are similar to Tennessee’s, but the pick popularity of each team is vastly different.
From a win odds perspective, picking favored Cleveland and underdog Atlanta gives you about the same chance of going 2-0 as picking the opposite sides in those matchups, Detroit and Tennessee. But you would expect only about 10% of the typical pool to also pick Cleveland and Atlanta, compared to 34% of a typical pool expected to go with Detroit and Tennessee.
So you would still have to beat over three times more entries with your other Week 3 picks if you go the more popular route, in order to win a weekly prize.
Carolina Panthers (at Seattle Seahawks)
Point Spread: +5.5
Win Odds: 35% (25th)
Popularity: 4% (26th)
A Carolina pick certainly isn’t for everyone and doesn't make sense in a lot of pool types. But in larger weekly prize contests, it is the kind of leverage play that can really boost your odds to win the week.
The Panthers' offense has struggled in the first two games under QB Bryce Young, but the defense has been pretty good, and the running game has been productive. Just as importantly, they are in a "get better" spot against a defense that is ranked 30th in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed, and 30th in net yards per pass allowed so far this year.
Only 4% of the public is picking the Panthers to win in Week 3. For perspective, the public is picking the five underdogs of more than a touchdown this week (Arizona, Chicago, Houston, Indianapolis, and the NY Giants) about 3% of the time. So you are getting a more likely winner than a longshot, at an extreme value price.
That means that if there are over 100 entries in your pool, you can give yourself a 35% chance of gaining a point on almost all of the field, in a contest where your chance of winning the week is small to begin with.
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NFL Week 3 Survivor Pick Analysis
You shouldn't listen to any survivor pool pick advice that doesn't consider the "holy trinity" of survivor strategy data:
- Win odds (how likely a team is to win, compared to other options)
- Pick popularity (the percentage of opponents you expect to pick that team)
- Future value (how useful that team should be as a future week pick)
Both win odds and pick popularity factor into a metric called Expected Value ("EV" for short), which assesses the risk-vs.-reward tradeoff of making a team your survivor pick. If you want to increase your expected winnings from your pool in the current week, making a positive EV pick is good, and making a negative EV pick is bad.
The final piece of the puzzle is future value. All else being equal, it's always better to conserve your best options for future week survivor picks. So if a team is unlikely to have any utility as a future survivor pick, there may still be a case to pick them in the current week, even if their EV is slightly negative. It's all about making the tradeoffs that make the most sense for your pool's size, format, and rules.
Below, we break down the five most popular survivor picks for NFL Week 3, reviewing some of their pros and cons according to the holy trinity data and EV.
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Chicago Bears)
Point Spread: -12.5
Win Odds: 83% (1st)
Pick Popularity: 22% (1st)
Future Value: 2nd
PROS: In Week 3 Kansas City has the highest win odds we have seen for any team so far this year. They also aren’t an overly popular pick, relative to their win odds, providing solid value.
CONS: The Chiefs are our 2nd-highest-ranked team for future value in survivor pools, so saving them to pick later is quite valuable. Also, because Week 3 features lots of higher win odds teams, and fairly spread out pick popularity, the chances of seeing lots of other opponents eliminated because they didn't pick the Chiefs is low.
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Houston Texans)
Point Spread: -9.5
Win Odds: 77% (t-5th)
Popularity: 21% (2nd)
Future Value: 11th
PROS: Jacksonville has some future value, but in a week where the top three teams in future value are also among the most popular picks, using the Jags still allows you to save teams with more future value. Week 3 is also our highest projected win odds for Jacksonville this season.
CONS: Since Jacksonville's pick popularity is similar to Kansas City's and above that of both Dallas and San Francisco, and there are a limited number of picks drawing a meaningful percentage of picks this week. As a result, the Jaguars have a relatively lower EV compared to the other popular picks in Week 3.
Dallas Cowboys (at Arizona Cardinals)
Point Spread: -12
Win Odds: 82% (2nd)
Popularity: 19% (3rd)
Future Value: 3rd
PROS: A lot of what we said about Kansas City above also applies to Dallas in Week 3. They have high win odds, and relatively modest popularity for win odds that high, which give them positive EV as a Week 3 pick.
CONS: Like Kansas City, Dallas has high future value so using them now comes with a significant opportunity cost, and their EV in Week 3 isn’t as high as it could be because of all the other safe and not super popular options.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
Point Spread: -8
Win Odds: 77% (t-4th)
Popularity: 7% (5th)
Future Value: 12th
PROS: The Ravens again have high win odds, and this game is our second-highest projected win odds for Baltimore this season, behind only their Week 1 game against Houston. It just so happens there are four other teams that have even higher win odds in Week 3. Like Jacksonville, the Ravens have relatively lower future value compared to the other options this week, but lower pick popularity than Jacksonville makes for a solid EV.
CONS: Relatively speaking, the Ravens are riskier than the top choices this week. And while the future value is relatively lower than other options, we still project Baltimore as a favorite in 11 future upcoming weeks. So there are lots of potential spots where Baltimore could become useful in survivor pools going forward, especially if they end up being a better team than was expected in the preseason. Also, because the Ravens were also the most popular survivor pick in Week 1, saving them would give you a rare card to play in future weeks.
Get Week 3 Picks For Your NFL Pools
Every football pool demands a customized approach to pick strategy. In survivor pools, for example, should you lean more toward the safest Week 3 pick (Kansas City) or try to save the top teams and go with a pick like Jacksonville? In pick'em contests, is it wise to take a calculated gamble by picking the Falcons to upset the Lions?
The answer is "it depends," because factors like your pool's size, rules, and prize structure all play a role in determining your optimal picks. For instance, if your survivor pool requires double picks starting later in the season, then you need to consider the implications now. If your pick'em pool uses confidence points, then it might be smarter to just put lower confidence on the Dolphins than to pick an outright upset.
It takes a lot of data and math to get to the right answers. And despite the best of intentions, most football pool players don't have the will, the skill, or the time to compete at that level.
That's why we built our NFL Survivor Picks and Football Pick'em Picks products. In less than a minute, they generate customized picks tailored specifically for your pool, all based on the objective data required to play like a pro. Use them at the links below, and good luck in your survivor and pick'em pools in Week 3.
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