Week 15 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
We finally turned the ship around in Week 14! It wasn’t much, but profit is profit after the previous weeks. It’s crazy because, based on the numbers we got and how the games were playing out, I thought we were going to have an insanely good week.
We bet Josh Allen over 32.5 rushing yards, and everything was playing out as we anticipated. There were designed runs, and he was scrambling a bunch. He had 34 yards with a few minutes left. With the Chiefs turning the ball over on downs, two kneels from Josh Allen took us back down to 32.5, and we lost. Outrageous run bad there.
Despite the Ravens-Rams game turning into a shootout in subpar conditions, we still had life on his under of 45.5 receiving yards because the handicap also included a lower target rate vs. zone coverage. He was under 45 receiving yards until the Raven's final 17-yard touchdown with minimal time remaining.
To wrap up the week, we bet Jayden Reed over 39.5 receiving yards. His prop closed in the mid-high 40’s and we knew he would be heavily involved in the gameplan. He wound up catching 8 passes… for 27 yards. It was the second-fewest yards in NFL history on 8 receptions. He also had 3 runs for over 30 yards, so taking the rushing and receiving prop would have been a winning move. Tough luck, but I can feel the tides turning! On to Week 15…
Week 15 NFL Player Prop Bets
Desmond Ridder under 191.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel but would play 181.5 at B365)
Since their Week 7 bye, the Panthers' pass defense has been playing well. They are allowing just 162 passing yards per game, and only one QB has cleared 190 passing yards in 7 weeks. That includes games against CJ Stroud (140 passing yards) and Dak Prescott (189 passing yards)! It's not just because they are getting their teeth kicked in and opposing teams don't need to throw anymore; their pass defense is 12th in success rate, 3rd in explosive pass rate, and 12th in EPA per dropback.
Now we factor in that the Falcons love to run the ball and are coming off a game where they opened up a bit and got burned against the Bucs. I expect an extremely run-centric game plan here against Carolina. The last time they played in Week 1, it was tied 10-10 entering the 4th quarter, and Ridder finished with just 115 passing yards on 21 pass attempts. With the Panthers remaining extremely run-heavy on their own end and incapable of sustaining consistent offense, this figures to be neutral or positive game script for Atlanta for the entire game. Even if the Falcons do fall behind, I expect them to lean on the run to maintain offense, as we have seen in years past.
There are now expected to be 15+ MPH winds and substantial rain. It's not like either team needed an extra push to run more but they may get that here.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
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DK Metcalf over 61.5 receiving yards (-114 at FD, 62.5 widely available)
All reports out of practice are strong for Geno Smith as he looks to return here as the starter. The Seahawks absolutely need to start winning to make the playoffs so I fully expect Geno to give it a go. Metcalf's matchup here is fantastic as the Eagles allow 9.2 receptions and 115 yards per game to outside wideouts where Metcalf runs almost all of his routes. I also expect the Eagles to score plenty here on the Seahawks to drive this game and keep the Seahawks passing. I not only like his standard line but his alts are a great look too as the Eagles have been crushed at times and will be without Darius Slay likely. The Eagles have allowed 17 wideouts to clear 60 receiving yards, 10 to clear 80 yards, and 6 to clear 105 yards.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit at over 61.5
Risk 0.1 units at over 82.5 (+205 at DK under alt receiving yards)
Risk 0.1 units at over 104.5 alt yards +500 at DK
Dak Prescott over 36.5 pass attempts (-114 FD)
Since their Week 7 bye, the Cowboys lead the league in pass rate over expectation (7.1%) and now head into this game as 2-point underdogs against the Bills. We bet on this spot last week with Mahomes and the Chiefs but the Bills run defense has largely been solid while their pass defense is once again beat up with S Micah Hyde DNP. I expect a back-and-forth game here and the Cowboys skewing pass-heavy regardless. In the few games that have remained competitive or against good teams, Dak had 44 attempts in loss vs PHI, 38 vs CAR (was competitive for most of the game), 41 against SEA, and 39 against PHI.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Derek Carr under 215.5 passing yards (-115 at CZRS and DK)
The Saints made it very clear that they wanted to run the ball as much as possible last week and throw it sparingly with Carr. Despite the game being only 14-6 with just 6 mins left in the 4th quarter, Carr had only 26 pass attempts and converted that into 119 yards. Chris Olave DNP three times this week and the doctors are saying if he does return, he likely won't be effective or near 100%. Rashid Shaheed is still dinged up and likely won't play here either. So that leaves him with AT Perry, Lynn Bowden, Jimmy Graham, and Juwan Johnson. The Saints are also getting back Taysom Hill which means they could be even more run-heavy and Taysom could take away multiple opportunities. The Giants defense has been far from good but they blitz a ton and play a high rate of man coverage. Give Carr's receiving corps I truly have no idea who is going to consistently separate quickly or can threaten the Giants downfield. I have zero expectations of the Giants pushing the Saints here even after Devito's magic last week. Like last week's saints game, this is going to be a snoozefest.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Jerome Ford under 42.5 rushing yards (-115 DK, MGM, CZRS, 41.5 FD)
Ford has seen just 40% of the rushing attempts over the last four weeks, hovering between 9-to-12 carries. He now draws a particularly tough spot against the Chicago Bears without three starting offensive linemen. The Bears' run defense is 5th in rushing success rate and are allowing just 3.68 yards per carry on the season to opposing running backs. With a running back timeshare behind a beat-up offensive line this number is at least a few yards too high.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
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