2023 NFL Defensive Rookie Of The Year: Best Bets and Odds
Will Anderson Jr. was the first defensive player selected in April's NFL Draft, and he opened as the prohibitive favorite for Defensive Rookie Of The Year honors. Perhaps not surprisingly, this award has been dominated by early first-round picks, with very few exceptions over the past two decades, which you'll see in the trends section below. If the trends hold, we're looking at a pool of just seven viable contenders.
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Last 10 NFL DROY Winners
| Year | DROY Winner |
|---|---|
| 2022 | Sauce Gardner |
| 2021 | Micah Parsons |
| 2020 | Chase Young |
| 2019 | Nick Bosa |
| 2018 | Shaq Leonard |
| 2017 | Marshon Lattimore |
| 2016 | Joey Bosa |
| 2015 | Marcus Peters |
| 2014 | Aaron Donald |
| 2013 | Sheldon Richardson |
Noteworthy Defensive Rookie Of The Year Trends
- This award has been dominated by first-round picks, with Colts linebacker Shaq (Darius) Leonard the only non-first-round selection in the past 16 seasons.
- Over that same time frame, only Leonard and Marcus Peters (18th overall in 2015) were drafted outside of the top 15.
- Leonard is also the only linebacker to win the award in the past decade.
- Four of the past seven winners were EDGE rushers.
- No safety has won this award since Mark Carrier back in 1990.
Defensive Rookie Of The Year Best Bets
Devon Witherspoon, CB, Seattle Seahawks (+1000, Caesars)
The trends noted above are pretty strong, so if you're taking a few shots at this market, it's wise to follow them with at least one selection. For me, that player is Devon Witherspoon. Seattle used the fifth selection in April's draft to select "Spoon," whose 2022 season at Illinois was one of the best cornerback seasons ever graded at PFF.
Spoon finished the 2022 season ranked top-five in the country in completion percentage allowed (35.5%), forced incompletions (18), passer rating allowed when targeted (25.3), and yards allowed per target (3.3). He did that while playing more man coverage than any other cornerback in this class, showing true lockdown ability that should translate to the NFL. He faced 63 targets last season at Illinois, allowing just 22 receptions for 206 yards. His play style will endear him to fans and voters alike, and he's stepping into a starting role on a potential playoff team in Seattle.
Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas City Chiefs (+3000, Caesars)
If I'm breaking from the trends, it's to target pass rushers on contending teams who could pile up sacks in Year 1. Felix Anudike-Uzomah will likely be a situational pass rusher to start the season, with George Karlaftis stepping into a bigger role in his second year and Charles Omeninhu coming over from San Francisco, replacing the 2022 snaps of Frank Clark and Carlos Dunlap.
Scouts raved about Anudike-Uzomah's bend and first step at Kansas State, and the Chiefs used the final pick in the first round to select the Kansas City native to help fill in for the departure of Clark and Dunlap. If Anudike-Uzomah can approach or bypass the 63% snap rate that Karlaftis saw during his rookie campaign, he has the skills to flirt with double-digit sack numbers on a team that should be Super Bowl contenders.
Will McDonald, EDGE, New York Jets (+3500, Caesars)
The case for Will McDonald is similar to the one I just laid out for Felix Anudike-Uzomah, except Will McDonald meets the criteria as a top-15 selection in the NFL Draft. The challenge for McDonald is that he's stepping into a loaded room of edge rushers, so his path to significant snaps as a rookie is slightly more challenging. However, the draft capital certainly helps his case after the Jets used the 15th pick to select McDonald when everyone thought New York would pluck an offensive tackle to solidify the line in front of Aaron Rodgers.
Carl Lawson, John Franklin-Myers, and the third of last year's first-round picks, Jermaine Johnson, stand in the way of McDonald getting every-down snaps, but you can make a case that the depth and experience ahead of him can help flatten his first-year learning curve and keep him fresh. He thrived at Iowa State when he was used primarily as an edge rusher due to his explosive first step and long arms. Again, we're chasing double-digit sacks in a situational pass rush role on a high-profile contending team.
