Week 4 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet From Ryan Noonan
The mental gymnastics it takes to do this, to pick yourself up off the mat and rally when your run out is as poor as mine is right now is quite a feat. But I feel good about my process, and I'm ready to turn the page on a rocky September and hit the ground running to kickstart October. Let's go.
You're probably tired of hearing me talk about it over the years. Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my weekly Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. But player props? Player props are an entirely different story.
I'm off to a frustratingly slow start through two weeks, but I believe in my process, which has been profitable at season's end for five straight years. Week-to-week snapshots can be volatile in sports betting, but if you're not looking at it over a larger season-long sample but reacting to small sample ups and downs every game, you're going to give yourself an aneurism.
Without polling all of our betting subscribers here at 4for4, I'm fairly confident most of you also play some form of fantasy football. And if you're here, it's unlikely you're a casual player. Instead, you put in the necessary time and effort required to win money or humiliate your friends, ideally both. I'm the same way. I'm constantly thinking about game environments and player usage, and these thoughts correlate so well with the prop market.
There are similarities prop betting has with traditional markets, like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long-term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need better numbers than the market. With props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.
I'm not here to promise you a list of winners every week like some old-school 800-number tout, but I have a pretty solid track record of forecasting player performance, and I believe our team's process is sound, and we can exploit this market every week of the season.
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