Week 12 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet From Connor Allen
Week 11 Recap: Week 11 was a rollercoaster. We started off the week in a rough way, going 2-4 in the early window. Miles Sanders fell one carry short of our over 13.5 attempts, Jakobi Meyers fell one reception short of hitting, and Justin Fields missed a wide-open Darnell Mooney, falling short of his receiving over. I felt great about the overs but sometimes they go wrong even if the handicap was spot on! Thankfully, a 3-0 Monday Night Football sweep got us out of the gutter.
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On to Week 12…
Week 12 Player Prop Bets
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Tyler Conklin under 30.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetRivers)
Mike White is starting at quarterback this week which means we will likely see a different distribution of targets for this offense. Last season on 132 pass attempts, White only targeted the tight end position 7.5% of the time and 10 total times, last in the NFL. Zach Wilson has targeted the position on 20.6% of his throws this year, nearly triple the rate of White.
With the Bears activating Nathan Peterman and most reports hinting towards the Bears being without Justin Fields, there is also a good chance the Jets keep the ball on the ground more. We have seen them do that with Zach Wilson before and the only reason Mike White/Joe Flacco have to chuck the ball around is negative or back-and-forth affairs. I don't think a Trevor Siemian-led Bears offense will bring that level of competency, especially against a good Jets defense.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit at BetRivers
Kyler Murray under 30.5 rushing yards (-115 at MGM)
Murray is returning from a hamstring injury that was serious enough to sideline him for multiple weeks which could hamper his rushing ability here. Even if it doesn't he is playing against the Chargers who have done a great job at defending mobile quarterbacks and have only allowed 112 rushing yards on the entire season to opposing quarterbacks with none of them rushing for more than 24 yards.
That includes:
- 5/24 to Marcus Mariota
- 4/23 and 2/-1 to Patrick Mahomes
- 4/23 to Russ
- 4/7 to Geno Smith
We have 20.4 rushing yards projected.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit at BetMGM.
Foster Moreau under 3.5 receptions (-127 at Betrivers/Barstool)
Moreau has fewer than 4 receptions in 7-of-8 games this season and we have 3.2 receptions projected with most other median projections around 3.
Risk 1.27 units to win 1 unit at BetRivers
Keenan Allen Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Keenan Allen recorded 94 yards off of eight targets last week, despite only playing on 68% of the snaps. He now draws the best matchup possible against a Cardinals team that has been shredded by slot receivers. I would play this up to 68 receiving yards.
Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit at FanDuel.
Aaron Rodgers Under 231.5 Passing Yards (-110 at MGM)
Going to ride this until the wheels fall off. The Eagles have held every quarterback under their passing prop this season, and 9-of-10 quarterbacks under this specific number.
Beyond the tough matchup for the Packers against the Eagles, who rank third in pass DVOA and fifth in explosive pass rate allowed, there could also be volume concerns for Aaron Rodgers. We know the Packers want to run the ball and that is where the Eagles are susceptible. Even against the Titans' elite run defense last week, the Packers came out and ran the ball seven times while throwing seven times in the first quarter. It wasn't until they figured out running wasn't going to work they decided to throw a bunch. They should be able to run the ball on the Eagles even with the additions of Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh.
I also expect the Eagles to run the ball a ton on the other side in a great matchup against a poor Packers run defense as the Eagles' pass game has sputtered the past two weeks. With all of these factors, I expect a low-volume game from Rodgers in a tough matchup.
Risk: 1.10 units to win 1 unit at BetMGM.
Miles Sanders Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Talked about it on Prop Drop but Miles Sanders has gone well over this number in all but one neutral or plus-matchup. Green Bay is 29th in run DVOA and the Eagles are 7-point favorites. We have him projected for 84 rushing yards.
Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.
I will update this column throughout the week with more bets.
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