2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Betting Preview

The PGA Tour heads to the “Lone Star State” for the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play event as the best golfers in the world take a week off from stroke play and battle it out in head-to-head competition. For the sixth year since 2016, the tournament will be held at Austin Country Club on the outskirts of the Texas capital.
This challenging Pete Dye course features uneven lies, forced carries, menacing pot bunkers, and a mix of risk/reward holes that challenge the best golfers in the world.
Match play is a form of competition where a golfer plays directly against an opponent in a head-to-head match-up. You win a hole by completing it in the fewest number of strokes, and you win a match when you are winning by more holes than remain to be played. Match play is all about playing the opponent and taking risks or playing conservatively based on the situation. It rewards aggressive play more than in stroke competition.
The field is officially set with 64 of the top 70 players in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) committed. The star-studded field includes 50 PGA Tour winners with a collective 227 wins to their credit. The final seeds for the 64-player field were determined by their OWGR as of Monday, March 22.
Golfers not playing in this year's event for a number of reasons include Sam Burns, Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Harris English, and Phil Mickelson.
Keep in mind, the tournament runs from Wednesday through Sunday with the winner having played seven matches in five days. For more picks, check out Ryan Noonan's Betting Card.
Jump To: Final Scoring Model | Bets
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Bracket
The below bracket is courtesy of BetspertsGolf.com. A printable version is also available here.
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Winners/Odds
Match Play Format
The players are split into 16 groups of four players (each group has a player seeded 1–16, 17–32, 33–48, 49–64). Each group plays in a round-robin format over Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. One point is awarded for a win, and one-half point for a tie, with only the group winner qualifying to the next round. If two or more players are tied at the top of the group, there is a sudden death stroke play tie-breaker played to decide who progresses. The second phase is played as a knockout tournament, with the round of 16 and quarter-finals played on Saturday, and the semi-finals, third-place playoff, and final played on Sunday.
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Winning Trends
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- 5 of the last 7 winners had won an event in one of their previous five starts
- The last 12 winners had at least one top-10 finish within their last four starts
- 6 of the last 7 winners had reached the “Round of 8” in a previous Dell Match play event
- The last 11 winners had played in at least three previous Dell Match play events
- The last 11 winners had at least two previous career wins
Past Player Quotes
*Quotes courtesy of ASAP Sports Transcriptions
Justin Thomas: It's a cool golf course. I think it's fun because it can play so many different ways, You can get firm and fast and some serious wind coming off that lake, and it's fun. I feel like usually if you played a stroke-play event here you would be very worried about the draw that you get because the weather can fluctuate so much throughout the day, but in match play, all you're worried about is your opponent and trying to beat him.
Jordan Spieth: Austin Country Club is such a fun golf course to play. You got a lot of different options on a lot of different holes, which also makes it a pretty fitting golf course for match play. So I love coming down here, feel like I have tremendous support in the state of Texas.
Ian Poulter: I kind of like the shit-or-bust attitude, to be honest with you. It gets the adrenaline going, the ticker starts going, and quite frankly you've just got to be—shit or bust. You got to pony up and hit shots, right? So you got to suck it up and shit or bust. I mean, it's an Englishism. Yeah, I mean—it's just one of those, you have to hit shots. This is that golf course where you're going to make mistakes, hazards everywhere, tricky pin position, it was just try and keep the foot down.
Scottie Scheffler: I think the layout is a lot of fun, a lot of good holes, a lot of birdies, so for match play it's fun. You have those holes down by the lake, good risk/reward holes. Especially the way it plays during the tournament it's fun to watch on TV and it's fun for the guys to play as well when it gets that firm. I know the course really well. So the preparation for me is a lot easier just knowing what's around. So this week I feel like I'm at an advantage just knowing this area so well, and the course.
Jon Rahm: I love the golf course. I think it's one of those that really sets up great for match play. It's a lot of holes that play differently depending upon the wind. You can drive some holes, you can drive other holes, you can get in trouble on the ones and all that. It gives you birdie opportunities, there's bogey opportunities; it's a really fun week.
Kevin Kisner: It’s a Pete Dye, which I do pretty well on over the course of time. But I’m not sure. I’m not sure that I would. There’s too much room off the tee. There’s not as much rough and guys can play from odd areas that I’ve noticed this week. But the Hilton Heads and the Colonials you don’t play from there. I think that’s the biggest difference is there’s more room here.
Tiger Woods: This golf course is tricky. There’s so many moving parts on this golf course. Not only the wind comes all over the place but these mounds. The Tour staff, as I said earlier in the week, these pins are probably half a step harder than they would be in stroke play. So they’re putting them in spots where, yeah, we can potentially putt off greens, chip of greens, balls are careening into tough spots. It's not flat, I'll tell you that. It's got quite a bit of movement to it. And it's a great match-play course, I can see why the guys like it. You'll see some high numbers here, and you'll see a lot of birdies, that's exactly what a good match-play course does.
Course Overview
Having moved to its current location in 1984, Austin CC is a shorter par-71 course that measures 7,108 yards. Located along the banks of the Colorado River, it spans over 180 acres of hill country vistas and canyon views just west of downtown Austin, Texas. Playing host to the World Golf Championships match play event, Pete Dye designed a difficult test of golf featuring uneven lies, forced carries, and menacing pot bunkers that challenge the best golfers in the world. True to his reputation, this Dye track will force players to play positional golf by strategizing their way around the course and being sharp with every club in their bag.
While the course does have Bermuda grass in play throughout for much of the year, it is still dormant during this time in March because of the cooler temperatures. The fairways are over-seeded with ryegrass and fescue. The rough is an ugly dormant brown Bermuda and is very short at only two inches. The greens are Poa trivialis and are the same surface as was just seen at both THE PLAYERS and Valspar Championships. While many of the greens have undulations and numerous tricky areas, they run around a 12 on the stimpmeter—Tour-average speed.
The front-nine plays more like a traditional Texas-style course. Pete Dye used the rolling hills and naturally elevated terrain of the property to create more of a rugged landscape full of native obstacles that will challenge players both off the tee and on their approach shots. There are often huge undulations and uneven lies throughout the fairways and green complexes.
The back-nine is much lower in elevation with holes 12-16 playing closest to the Colorado River with the famous Pennybacker Bridge as a backdrop. Not only are there more water hazards on this side of the course, but we also see numerous Scottish-style pot bunkers as well as some of Dye’s notorious elongated fairway bunkers. The pot bunkers can be so troublesome that golfers are often forced to pitch out sideways in order to have a target towards the hole. In fact, Austin Country Club’s 110 bunkers are the third-most out of any Tour course. As players come down this closing stretch of holes, the trademark Texas winds can also play a big factor as this side of the course is more wide open and affected by gusty breezes.
Not only does the course have a scenic backdrop, but it sets up to be an excellent match-play course with three lengthy par-5s along with five par-4s under 400 yards. There are a couple of holes down the stretch that reward boldness for players trailing in their match and need to take some risks. This includes the driveable 317-yard 13th hole over water and the downhill 368-yard 18th hole.
While the course is somewhat generous off the tee with wider fairways on many holes, it is filled with deep bunkers, a handful of water hazards, sidehill lies, and surrounding canyons to penalize those who are spraying their drives. Unless super accurate, bombing away off the tee here is simply not a wise choice.
Like always, but especially here for this event, some of the best ball-strikers in the world are also among the best match play performers. While you can win some matches by scrambling or two-putting for pars, birdies are the name of the game for winning match play. And with flag sticks typically placed in tight positions and the greens being undulated, keeping the ball out of trouble off the tee, and then hitting approach shots with accuracy to the proper quadrant will be crucial.
Career Match Play/Austin CC Records and Hole Differential +/-
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: Total Last 24 rds
- SG: APP
- Match Play History
- SG: Putting (overall)
- Scrambling
- Birdie or Better %
- Austin CC History
- T2G Last 6 months
- Fairways Gained
- SG: Comp Courses
Austin, Texas Weather Forecast (March 23-27)
Player Selection
Including players who rank highly in each of the model stats this week, there are numerous angles to consider for betting on golfers whether for outrights, group winners, or head-to-head matchups.
First of all, because this is not a stroke-play event, there is no Strokes Gained data to analyze, thus limiting our ability to project success based on the normal models. And because of the grueling pressure-packed format that includes players battling just to make it out of their initial group, there is a tremendous amount of volatility in this event. This was exemplified in the past two tournaments with both Kevin Kisner and Billy Horschel winning as 80-1 longshots. The top seeds typically don't even make it past day three. We see a wide array of favorites, mid-range, and longshot winners here.
There are, however, still plenty of quality metrics we can model this week. Many of these are centered around stats that fit the course at Austin Country Club. An example of this is Fairways Gained. Even though we don't have Driving Accuracy stats, because of all the bunkers, hazards, and tricky lies outside of the fairway, we can make the assumption Fairways Gained is an important stat this week. Birdie-makers, scramblers, and consistent putters are also types of players who typically have more success in match play events.
Other non-stat splits included in the model are "Comp Courses" which are mostly other shorter, positional Pete Dye tracks, past match play history, and past history at Austin Country Club (see sheet above).
The winning trends for this event also show that current form matters. Each of the last 12 winners has had at least one top-10 finish in their last four starts. Local Texas players who have more familiarity with the course, such as Scottie Scheffler, also have an advantage.
Left-handed golfers also seem to have an edge here as Bubba Watson, Brian Harman, and Robert MacIntyre have each had success in this event.
I will also be focusing on strong putters. The ability to consistently sink short to mid-range putts, especially on these sloping greens, even if just saving par, can put enormous pressure on opponents. Many elite putters have won this event including Horschel, Kevin Kisner, Dustin Johnson, and Jason Day.
This unique type of event is one in which we can target players by simply using the "eye test" and knowing which players are able to consistently give themselves birdie chances because of their elite ball-striking or who can grind out holes by scrambling to save par.
Finally, I have included SG: Wind in the model as three of the five days are forecasted to see high winds which are typical for Texas, especially this time of year.
Expect the unexpected this week. Match play tournaments are among the most unpredictable events. Per Justin Ray, only 30% of top seeds in each group advance while 24% of the lowest seeds in each group make it into the Sweet 16 section of the event. My advice is to go lighter on the bankroll for outrights and focus more on the daily head-to-head matchups.
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Final Model
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Patrick Cantlay +2200
When looking for all-around players who are strong in every facet of the game and do not show any weaknesses, Patrick Cantlay is one of the few that jump out. With his mental toughness, he has the perfect demeanor for match play. Even with a small sample size, his 7-3-1 career match play record is good early evidence of what he is capable of in this format. He is one of the most consistent putters in the field, and over the past six months, he is averaging the most strokes gained per round out of anyone in the world.
Group Winners
- Group 1 - Jon Rahm +150, 2u DraftKings
- Group 2 - Sergio Garcia +250, 0.75u PointsBet
- Group 4 - Patrick Cantlay +185, 1u PointsBet
- Group 7 - Xander Schauffele +175, 1u DraftKings
- Group 8 - Dustin Johnson +175, 1.25u PointsBet
- Group 11 - Jordan Spieth +210, 1u DraftKings
- Group 12 - Billy Horschel +175, 1u DraftKings
- Group 16 - Brooks Koepka +220, 0.75u DraftKings
For the most up-to-date picks, or if you have any questions or comments, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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