2022 Valspar Championship Betting Card Preview
The PGA Tour puts a bow on the Florida swing this week with the Valspar Championship. After a wild five days at THE PLAYERS, I'm not sure what this field will look like come Thursday morning. I'm banking on a steady stream of withdraws between now and Thursday morning, so I recommend a light pre-tournament card, earmarking funds for live betting opportunities as the event takes shape on Thursday and Friday.
Located in Palm Harbor, Florida, and played on the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort, Copperhead is often described as one of the Tour's most trying tracks. Best known for the "Snake Pit", the three-hole finishing stretch that can alter the scoreboard quickly, Copperhead plays fast and narrow. The elevation changes and tree-lined fairways make it play more like a Carolina course than your prototypical Florida course.
Scoring opportunities are few and far between here, and each hole can be won or lost from the tee. Finding the small, Bermudagrass greens in regulation is a difficult task here and nearly impossible if you're not in the fairway, so I'm putting a premium on ball-striking this week. The unique dispersion of holes on this 7,340-yard, Par-71 track is something to factor in as well, with five long Par-3s on tap each round. I'm putting a premium on long iron play, focusing on golfers who thrive in the 200+ yard approach range. Check out Ron Klos's tournament preview for his final scoring model and picks.
Past Winners at Valspar Championship
- 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
- 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
- 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
- 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
- 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
- 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)
In this space, I want to touch on the players I'm targeting this week and share my opinion on the best way to bet them at this event.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It's the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That's where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
Betting markets are fluid, but I'll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
Outright Betting Pick
[subscribe_betting]
Matthew Fitzpatrick
One of the best putters in the world couldn't make a putt last week at TPC Sawgrass and was on the short end of the stick in terms of tee time waves. Okay. I'm willing to throw that out the window this week to back Matthew Fitzpatrick at a similar price to his pre-tournament PLAYERS number last week. Fitzpatrick is not someone I've backed historically. He's thrived on and around the greens, rarely registering as an above-average ball-striker in any given week. In 27 measured starts last season, Fitzpatrick averaged 0.00 strokes gained approach (SG: APP). He was the poster boy for Tour average. This season, he's averaging 0.64 SG: APP per round, a massive gain that's resulted in four straight T12 or better finishes heading into last week's PLAYERS. He's been especially adept with his long irons in 2022, ranking first in birdie or better% (BOB%) from 200+ yards, and also finds himself among the top 10 in this field in long iron accuracy. I posted him as a play in our Discord on Tuesday morning at +3300, and that number has dwindled down to +2500 across the board. He's still in play for me at that price. If you shy away from the outright market, FanDuel has him at +320 to finish inside the top 10.
Finishing Position Bets
Top 5
Shane Lowry
I'm going back to the well with Shane Lowry this week. His 2022 form is as good as anyone in the world, finishing no worse than T24 in his past five starts. Over the past three months, he ranks second in this field in SG: APP and strokes gained ball-striking (SG: BS). He thrives on tough tracks and difficult conditions, and early weather reports show wind could be a factor again this week in Florida. He's available anywhere between 20- and 30-1 in the outright market, but I'm going to take him at +450 on BetMGM to finish inside the top five.
Top 10
Collin Morikawa
When looking at corollary courses for Copperhead, two jump out. Though neither course is in regular rotation on the PGA Tour, recent events during the 'Covid Swing' at Muirfield Village and The Concession show strong overlap with what it takes to be successful at the Valspar Championship. Collin Morikawa won both events. Now, why wouldn't I just bet him to win outright? That's a terrific question, and it's something I could regret come Sunday, but the price is just too steep for me. I'm rarely firing outright bets at the top of the board. Morikawa has been hovering between 10- and 12-1 since the market opened, and while I'm anticipating a competitive effort after missing the cut last week, I'm more comfortable with his price in the finishing position market. Most books have him in the -120 to +130 range, but I'm taking DraftKings' generous +170 here.
Top 20
Keegan Bradley
As we've seen the past two weeks, when Keegan Bradley gives us something that's even close to field average on the greens, he contends. He's one of the premier ball-strikers in the world, but doesn't get the credit he deserves for that because he's so erratic with the flat stick. He shot 68 in both rounds three and four at TPC Sawgrass, tasting the final round smoke down the stretch. Now he heads to a place he loves, a place where he's found success in the past, and where his accuracy off the tee is rewarded. He's fifth in this field in SG: BS over the past three months, and he was the sole runner-up here last season, gaining an incredible 3.21 strokes per round tee-to-green. If he can replicate last year's 0.22 strokes gained per round on the green, he'll easily pay off this 2/1 T20 on BetMGM. Also, with help from Ron's first-round leader model, I'm backing him at 50/1 to be at the top of the board when round two begins.
Top 30
Adam Hadwin
Coming off of a T9 last week at THE PLAYERS, Adam Hadwin comes in as a top-six play in Ron's final Valspar model this week. Six! Ahead of Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Louis Oosthuizen, and defending champ, Sam Burns. He's accurate off the tee, among the top five in this field in greens in regulation from over 200 yards out, and 14th in the field in SG: BS over his past 20 rounds. There's a lot to like about Hadwin, and I added him as a 60/1 outright on Tuesday evening. A top-30 finish is a conservative ask, and I love getting him at +175 on PointsBet.
Top 40
Russell Knox
After cashing a +230 T40 in this spot last week, I'm running it back with Russell Knox. It's a softer field than last week, and Knox is absolutely dialed in right now tee-to-green. Over his past 20 rounds, Knox ranks third in this field in SG: APP and fourth in SG: BS. His putter can be an issue at times, but he rolled it well in the final rounds at THE PLAYERS and found himself in contention during Monday's final round. He can lag behind on the greens and still cash this ticket for us, priced at +100 on DraftKings.
Head-to-Head 72-hole Matchup
Gary Woodland (-111) Over Webb Simpson (BetMGM)
Simply put, I don't believe Webb Simpson is healthy. He skipped the California swing, along with the first two Florida events due to a neck injury. Perhaps he's healthy enough to play, but he hasn't been healthy enough to practice much, limiting his practice sessions heading into last week's PLAYERS, where he proceeded to miss the cut. Looking back over multiple years, there's a lot to like about Simpson's game and how it fits Copperhead, but I don't think that's applicable data right now. On the other hand, Gary Woodland is playing well, with back-to-back T5 finishes at The Honda Classic and API before falling victim to last week's AM/PM wave of weather. Woodland should be a -140 favorite here, so I'll take the even odds at BetMGM.
To Miss The Cut
Sam Burns
On the surface, picking the defending champion and last week's 54-hole leader to miss the cut may seem curious, but I didn't like what I saw from Burns during Monday's final round. He missed three consecutive cuts in February on courses that would seem to fit his game, so don't fall in love with what he did here 12 months ago. He folded like a cheap shirt, and this is not a get-right spot for him due to his current struggles off the tee. At 3/1 on FanDuel, I'm banking on his continued accuracy struggles with driver in hand.
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at 4for4. This sheet, from Dan Rivera, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
