2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting & DFS Preview

The PGA Tour heads north up the Pacific Coast to the Monterey Bay Peninsula and features the iconic Pebble Beach course. Similar to The American Express a couple of weeks ago, golfers have to deal with another Pro-Am and multiple courses. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is a full-field event spread out on three different courses to allow for a 156-player field including amateurs. Players will be paired with celebrities, current and former athletes and high-level business executives.

Players will rotate through Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course and Monterey Peninsula Country Club, with a Saturday cut-line and the top-60 and ties finishing at Pebble Beach on Sunday. The courses can be challenging with either Pebble Beach or Spyglass playing the toughest of the three. The weather can definitely change quickly here and can influence the outcome of this tournament.

Overall, the field strength will be much weaker than last week’s event at Torrey Pines as only nine of the top 50 players in the world will be competing here. The field is headlined by defending champ Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Seamus Power, Justin Rose and the re-invigorated Jason Day. One main reason the field strength will be especially low is that 20 of the top-ranked golfers are playing on the other side of the world at the Saudi International. Also, many players do not have the patience for Pro-Am events where rounds can take up to six hours. Make sure you also check out Ryan Noonan's preview & betting card for more picks and analysis.

Past Winners/Odds

Official Scorecard

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Winning Trends

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• The last 15 winners had at least one previous career win
• 10 of the last 12 winners had at least three previous career wins
• The last 11 winners had at least 120 career starts on the PGA Tour
• The last 12 winners had played in at least two previous AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am events
• The last 13 winners had finished 16th or higher in at least one of their previous three starts at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
• The last 15 winners had finished 21st or higher in a previous AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
• 10 of the last 13 winners had at least one previous top-11 finish that season
• 47 of the last 50 winners have been born in the United States​​

Past Player Quotes

*Quotes courtesy of ASAP Sports Transcriptions

Jordan Spieth: Yeah, on this type of poa annua, it’s still going to be very soft and spinny. it will be kind of a dart throwing contest again and who can make the putts. I enjoy the Pro-Am part of it. Even though it’s a long round, we get good food, it’s a nice change of pace, good food, you’re kind of laughing down the fairways. It’s like you’re playing around on the weekend. Some guys don’t like the pace of play or a lot of guys just don’t like poa annua greens, guys that grew up on Bermuda grew up in the south or even guys that grew up in the northeast are used to primarily bent grass or Bermuda grass. It’s just a tough adjustment when you get in Monday night or something to try and get to know the places that week really quickly.

Gary Woodland: A lot of this week’s mental, too. You’re playing with amateurs, they’re long rounds, it’s a mental grind. So I think you have to be prepared for that and be mentally prepared for it.

Phil Mickelson: The greens being poa annua are what I grew up on, so it’s a grass I feel comfortable, not just putting on, but chipping on, and chipping into and hitting full shots into. It can be challenging for guys if they’re not used to it. It’s something that I’ve become very comfortable with over the years.

Daniel Berger [on Spyglass]: Yeah, I think this is the harder golf course for me so just to shoot 5-under here is a good round and anything under par here is a good round.

Justin Rose [on Spyglass]: It’s a pretty tough course. There are some strong holes on it. The greens at Spyglass and Pebble are a little firmer and they’re rolling really well.

Key Course Stats Compared to Tour Average

*Green = easier

*Red = more difficult

Course Overview

When researching players this week, it’s very important to focus on what all three courses have in common with each other. Each is around 7,000 yards, played along the coast, with small Poa greens. The courses are three of the top-six shortest on Tour. Both Pebble and Spyglass play over-par as two of the 15-toughest courses on Tour, while Monterey is easier at around a half-shot under par on average.

Pebble Beach Golf Links

The course was built by Jack Neville and Douglas Grant during the golden age of golf course architecture in 1919. Geographically, it weaves its way in and out of the Del Monte Forest and out to the cliffs of the Monterey Peninsula overlooking the majestic Pacific Ocean.

Due to numerous angles players face off the tee (OTT), Pebble Beach has the shortest average driving distance on Tour, forcing "less-than-driver" on many holes, and almost completely removing any advantage for longer hitters. With wide fairways and non-penal rough making off the tee impact minimal, along with the tiniest greens on Tour at Pebble, players can separate from the field with pinpoint accuracy on approach shots. With Pebble Beach being a clear "second shot" course, the only relevant stat to analyze OTT is Good Drive %, which measures how often a player lands their second shot on the green no matter where their tee shot landed.

Overall, Pebble Beach has the smallest greens on Tour at an average of only 3,500 square feet compared to the Tour average of 6,200. Golfers who can get themselves into a position to reach the greens in regulation should create the most birdie opportunities. On average, over 45% of approach shots are under 150 yards. The SG: Approach model for this week weighs each proximity distance and also ranks past player performance on other courses with small greens that are tough to hit.

If players miss the small greens, scrambling becomes even more imporant, not just from the rough, but also from Pebble’s difficult bunkers. Once on the Poa annua greens, the complexes at Pebble Beach are traditionally some of the hardest to putt on from within 15 feet on the Tour. In fact, the greens rank as one of the five toughest on the entire Tour. Also, keep in mind that 3-putts are 26% higher here than average because of all the missed short putts. Strong putting splits on these bumpy Poa greens are close to a requirement when targeting players this week.

Spyglass Hill

Spyglass Hill is a 7,041-yard Par-72 course. Most players agree Spyglass Hill is the most difficult test of the three courses when conditions are calm. When the wind kicks up, though, it becomes the easiest of the three. There are five holes exposed to the coastline, but the remaining holes turn inland, and with tree-lined fairways, they are better protected from any poor weather conditions. The biggest difference between Spyglass and Pebble Beach is that distance off the tee is a much more predictive measurement of success at Spyglass than it is at Pebble. After the first five holes, the golf course plays very straight with few doglegs. The fairways also don’t bottleneck in as much as they do at Pebble Beach to force a lay up. With straighter holes, golfers can swing away with drivers at Spyglass much more then they can at Pebble Beach.

Monterey Peninsula

The Monterey Peninsula course is generally the easiest of the three and is the only one that has averaged scoring under par at -0.53 over the past five events. If winds are calm, this is the course players will need to capitalize on and shoot a low round. Monterey Peninsula is a 6,958-yard Par-71 with five Par-3s, four Par-5s and nine Par-4s. The Par-5 holes are the easiest here and yield plenty of birdie and eagle opportunities. At Monterrey, there are almost 50-yard wide fairways most of the way down the hole. Players can be much more aggressive here and bomb away with drivers. Like Pebble and Spyglass, the rough is very short and non-penal. With generous landing zones, it’s difficult for players to not find the fairway. Accurate approach play and putting on the much easier greens will be crucial here.

Top 10 Most Important Stats

*In order of importance.

• SG: APP
• SG: Putting (Poa)
• Par 4 350-450 yds
• Proximity 75-150 yds
• SG: ARG/Scrambling
• Good Drive %
• Course History
• Par 5 Scoring
• BoB%
• Bogey Avoidance

Unique Tournament Splits

• SG: Coastal Courses
• SG: Short Courses
• SG: Western Courses

Monterey Bay Weather Forecast (February 3-6)

Another calm forecast with good conditions throughout. Of course, on the coast, this could change within hours, but this "perfect" weather run so far this year has been amazing.

Player Selection

With each of the three courses in this week’s rotation being so short, distance off the tee will not be an advantage this week. Many players will hit "less-than-driver". For me, this makes Good Drive % and Strokes Gained Approach even more important. Also, with the greens smaller than average on two of the courses, and downright tiny at Pebble Beach, golfers good at scrambling and Around the Green play will be vital to success. Finally, don’t forget to target players good at putting on Poa greens, or, as in the case of Luke List last week, players who outperform their non-Poa baseline when putting on Poa grass.

The above trends section for this week tells you that experience in this event matters. Golfers who have played at Pebble multiple times and who have had success here usually follow that up with positive performances. Since 2010, players with 4, 16, 6, 6, 7, 8, 4, 3, 21, 5 and 2 previous appearances in this event have been victorious. Also, players who have past win equity and who are more veteran in nature have also had higher finishes here.

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG) and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.

Outright Betting Selections