2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic Preview

Coming off an epic Harris English 8-hole playoff victory at the Travelers Championship, the PGA Tour rolls along to the Motor City for the Rocket Mortgage Classic at the classical Detroit Golf Club. This will be the third installment of this tournament, and while there is not yet a substantial amount of sample size for analyzing course statistics, one thing is known for sure—birdies will be dropping at an extensive rate. Below is my preview and scoring model for the tournament, but make sure to also check out Ryan Noonan's Betting Card.

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Course Details and Stats

• Par: 72
• Length: 7,370 yards
• Architect: Donald Ross
• Average Score Relative to Par: -1.92 (3rd-easiest)
• Grasses: Fairway - Bent/Poa; Greens - 75% Poa/25% Bent; Rough - Bluegrass 4”
• Greens Size - 5,150 square feet (11th-smallest)
• Greens Speed - 12 stimpmeter (Average)
• Field Size - 156 players
• Cut Line - Top 65 players and ties
• Strength of Field: 287 (350 is average)

*My modeling is built around the PGA’s relatively new Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG) and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance.

Course and Field Preview

The “Strength of Field” number for this tournament, as established by the Official World Golf Ranking system, is set at 287. That is considered below-average, as many of the top players are resting in preparation for the Open Championship in two weeks, which is being held this year at Royal St. George’s in England. Some will play in a “tune-up” event at next week’s John Deere Classic, while others will prepare for the “links-style” test of the Open by playing in the Scottish Open. There are still a good number of quality competitors who have made their way to Detroit, including Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Reed, Will Zalatoris, Webb Simpson and Hideki Matsuyama.

Let’s cut right to the chase here. The Detroit Golf Club is one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour rotation. It averages almost two shots under par. Players will have to shoot very low scores to be in contention. Winning scores in the first two years of this tournament have been 25-under par and 23-under par. Last year’s edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic saw the new “beefy” version of Bryson DeChambeau carve up the field en route to a three-shot victory over Matthew Wolff. What is remarkable about that victory was that DeChambeau actually lost strokes to the field on his approach shots. He gained a remarkable six-plus strokes both off-the-tee and on putting on the greens. He regularly belted out 350-yard drives, leaving himself with short wedges into the small Donald Ross-style greens. Driving distance off the tee is definitely beneficial here as the average drive is 11 yards longer than the PGA average. The main reason players are able to “bomb away” is that there are no real danger areas off-the-tee. The fairways are tree-lined, but because the course is an average length, players can club down and have confidence in their driving accuracy. This has led to a 65% fairway accuracy mark, which is well above average. Players are then typically left with a short to mid-range iron into greens that have been so receptive they have the third-highest GIR% on Tour.

Going back to the past two leaderboards, there are many “shorter” and more accurate drivers near the top, including Kevin Kisner, Ryan Armour, and Webb Simpson. Going back to 2019, the tournament’s inaugural year, the winner, Nate Lashley, finished 44th in driving distance for the week. The point is that driving distance is not one of the keys to finishing high in this tournament. Digging deeper into the stats from the first two tournaments at the Detroit Golf Club shows SG: Putting will be crucial to having success here. The greens are a mixture of poa annua (80%) and bentgrass (20%). Successful putting experience on poa greens will be another skill I will be seeking. Players have remarked that the only true defense the course has is the sloping “back-to-front” elevated greens, which are surrounded by 4” rough.

The weather forecast for the Detroit area shows high probabilities of scattered storms throughout the tournament. The area has already received over six inches of rain in the weeks leading up to the event. This will only make an easy course even more receptive as greens will hold approach shots much better than if conditions were firm. Now that we have a good understanding of how the course will play, let’s take a look at my official model for the week to determine what types of golfers we should select for our numerous betting opportunities.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Model and Player Selection

For me, the ingredients in choosing golfers this week include a strong off-the-tee game (distance only helps), players who are good on shorter approach shots (100-150 yard range), poa putting skills, Par 5 scoring ability and capable BoB (Birdie or Better) players. Four of those stats make up my “Core 4” model for the week, which tries to narrow down all the different metrics into the most important four. This specific model, along with the "Final Model" for the week, are exclusive to the site here only and are both shown below. I am placing very little weight on ARG (Around the Green) play this week because with GIR% so high, scrambling becomes much less important. Most of the different model splits will be repeated week after week as they are the main foundation of our research. Each tournament is unique though, and so, this week, for example, we have the debut of "SG: Easy Scoring Courses". This split measures performance on each of the other courses on the PGA Tour that also have very easy scoring. It will give us a good idea of which players have the potential to shoot a low number this week because they have also done it in the past on a similar course. The "SG: Donald Ross" model measures past performance on other courses where Donald Ross was the architect. Finally, the "Scoring" model is of the utmost importance this week. Stats like BoB%, Opportunites Gained (scoring chances inside 15 feet), Par 5 Scoring, overall Proximity to the hole and putting from 10-20 feet are the main metrics we should be looking at this week, and are weighted heavily in the model. For more analysis, and to see each of the other individual models, refer back to my Twitter account. You can also add questions and comments at any time on our Discord.

Core 4 Model

Final Rocket Mortgage Classic Model

Outright Betting Selections

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

Top Tier

Well, two weeks in, and the Outrights have been good to us. Two weeks ago, Jon Rahm. Last week, Harris English. Let's keep it going. For this week, we have another top-heavy small group of players to choose from. Speaking of heavy, there is honestly only one sharp choice on the board here, with only contenders falling in line behind the returning Rocket Mortgage champion, Bryson DeChambeau. I was able to get him at +900 (1.5u) at PointsBet earlier in the week. He can still be taken at +775 on DraftKings. DeChambeau checks all the boxes for this week. He is literally in the top 11 of each different category (except for two) in the Final Model. I expect him to have the same game plan as last year by which he overwhelmed the course with his power, wedged it up to the green, and made birdie and eagle putts at a high rate. I realize his betting odds are not great, but like with Rahm a couple of weeks ago, there is no need to overthink this. I know my next selection is in the "dog house" for a lot of folks because of his recent struggles and injury concerns, but fade Webb Simpson at your own peril this week. He is the best player in the field by a mile on Donald Ross courses, and grades out in the top nine in eight of the different models. There is no reason Simpson would even be playing here this week at a "lower-class" event unless he thought he had a legitimate chance to win. He finished second overall in the Final Model, and I am definitely backing him at +1900 (1u) on DraftKings.

Mid-Tier

Will Zalatoris +2650 (1u) on DraftKings leads off my selections in this middle range. The young phenom has struggled a bit lately with a 59th-place finish at the Schwab Challenge followed by a missed cut at the U.S. Open. I believe this "easy scoring" course presents a good change of pace event for him, and it also fits his game very well. Still looking for his first win, his struggles around the green should also be much less magnified at a "birdie-fest" like we are about to witness. Also in this range, I will jump aboard the Jason Kokrak train at +3000 (.75u) on DraftKings. With his putting game dramatically improved, like Zalatoris, the only real weakness Kokrak has shown is around the green. With that weakness being mitigated here, he ranks very high to above-average in every other model, including first overall in the important "Scoring" model.

Longshots

These next two selections are closer to the bottom of the mid-tier, but I really like Max Homa +5500 (0.5u) on DraftKings and Gary Woodland +5500 (0.4u) on DraftKings. Homa, especially, is very under-priced. He excels at Par-5 holes, loves poa greens and is a proven winner. He was recently quoted as saying he is aware of his standing in the world rankings and is very motivated to become one of the top golfers in the world. I have high confidence in Homa this week in this weak field, especially if he can eliminate the mental mistakes. As for Woodland, he has been slowly improving over the last handful of months, flashing signs of the talent that made him a world-class player just a short time ago. He ranks high in the "Scoring" and "Core 4" models, and this easy course might be just what he needs to push him over the hump and back into the winners' circle. My final selection (not a dart throw—a very confident pick) is Patton Kizzire at +12500 (0.2u) on William Hill. Kizzire is what you might call a very volatile performer. He has missed his last three cuts, but before that finished in third place in back-to-back tournaments. He is very intriguing because of his very streaky scoring ability. He is third in the entire field in BoB% and seventh in Opportunities Gained over his last 24 rounds. He is very strong in two of the other key areas for having success on this course as well, ranking 30th in SG: Approach and 17th in SG: P.

Finishing Positions

Top 10

• Bryson DeChambeau +105 (DraftKings) (1u)
• Webb Simpson +225 (DraftKings) (0.5u)

Top 20 (1 Unit Each)

• Hideki Matsuyama +110 (DraftKings)
• Joaquin Niemann +125 (DraftKings)
• Will Zalatoris +163 (DraftKings)
• Jason Kokrak +163 (DraftKings)
• Cameron Tringale +188 (DraftKings)
• Gary Woodland +225 (DraftKings)
• Max Homa +230 (FanDuel)

Top 20 (0.5 Units Each)

• Garrick Higgo +240 (FanDuel)
• Lucas Glover +335 (DraftKings)
• Patton Kizzire +400 (DraftKings)

Top 30 (1 Unit Each)

• Keegan Bradley +125 (DraftKings)
• Emiliano Grillo +125 (FanDuel)
• Si Woo Kim +138 (DraftKings)
• Rickie Fowler +150 (DraftKings)
• Harold Varner +230 (FanDuel)
• Doc Redman +155 (FanDuel)

72-Hole Matchups (1 Unit Each)

• Doc Redman -102 (FanDuel) over Brendan Todd
• Kevin Kisner +100 (BetMGM) over Jason Day
• Pat Perez -111 (DraftKings) over Brice Garnett

To Miss the Cut

• Bubba Watson +150 (DraftKings) (1u)

First Round 3-balls

• Bryson DeChambeau -120 (DraftKings) (2u) over Kramer Hickok and Cameron Champ
• Gary Woodland +105 (FanDuel) (1u) over Martin Laird and William McGirt
• Keegan Bradley -120 (DraftKings) (1u) over J.B. Holmes and Kevin Tway
• Harold Varner +150 (FanDuel) (1u) over Chesson Hadley and Will Gordon

For the most up-to-date picks, or if you have any questions or comments, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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