2021 John Deere Classic Preview

If you are a fan of low-scoring, weak-field "birdie-fests", the John Deere Classic should be a perfect cap to the past two weeks. Not that anyone should be complaining, as the previous two events have both ended with scintillating "edge-of-your-seat" playoff dramas. Two weeks ago, Harris English went eight holes deep to secure his second win of the season. At this past week's Rocket Mortgage Classic, it was Cameron Davis's turn, as he finished off a remarkable tournament-tying eagle from the bunker with a five-hole playoff victory over Troy Merritt and Joaquin Niemann. With an even weaker field at this week's tournament, another packed leaderboard and potential Sunday playoff would not surprise.

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Course Details and Stats

• Par: 71
• Length: 7,268 yards
• Architect: D.A. Weibring
• Average Score Relative to Par: -1.37 (6th-easiest)
• Grasses: Fairway - Bentgrass; Greens - Bentgrass; Rough - Kentucky Bluegrass 4”
• Greens Size - 5,500 square feet
• Greens Speed - 11.5 stimpmeter (Average)
• Field Size - 156 players
• Cut Line - Top 65 players and ties
• Strength of Field: 122 (3rd weakest field this season - 350 is average)

*My modeling is built around the PGA’s relatively new Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG) and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance.

Field and Course Preview

This week, as usual, most of the world's best players are participating in the Scottish Open, a more efficient links-style tune-up for the upcoming Open Championship at Royal St. Georges. This yearly "pre-Open" preparation provides for a consistently weak 156-player field at the John Deere Classic. Only one of the world's top-20 golfers is here in Daniel Berger as a +1100 favorite. Following behind him are the only other three players in the field inside the world's top 50 in Sungjae Im (+1700), the slumping Kevin Na (+4500) and popular favorite Brian Harman at (+1600). Since last year's edition was canceled due to the pandemic, Dylan Frittelli returns as the defending champion from 2019. Even though the field is the third-weakest all season, these golfers still have an enormous amount to play for. The full 500 FedExCup points are awarded to the winner, as is a two-year exemption into tournaments, plus a huge jump in the current FedEx standings. While the Scottish Open may have more talent playing across the pond, these players performing at the John Deere have plenty of motivation.

The John Deere Classic is played at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, IL. It is a 7,268-yard par 71 with easy-to-hit fairways, receptive bentgrass greens, and not much at all to challenge golfers. Players should be ready to make birdies from tee-off or prepare to trunk-slam their way out of Illinois by Friday evening. Similar to the Detroit Golf Club from last week, this is an extremely scoreable course, especially for those who can strategically manage their way around the course's hilly undulations and who stay clear of the four-inch rough. TPC Deere Run is not a course that bombers can overpower. Past winners include superior putters like Zach Johnson, Michael Kim and three-time champion, Steve Stricker. With a GIR% at 71%, and most approach shots being short irons and wedges, this invariably does turn into a putting contest. 2019's winner, Dylan Frittelli, made 60 of his 62 putts from inside 10 feet to help propel himself to the victory. In fact, the last three winners have gained an average of 9.5 SG: P. Having success with short approach shots and putting on bentgrass greens are definitely two of the most important splits to focus on for this week in the model.

The weather forecast for the week appears fairly pleasant, with just the occasional Midwestern pop-up scattered storms. Saturday and Sunday do have the potential for some higher wind gusts, so make sure to check-in for the round-by-round matchup articles analyzing which players may have an advantage playing in windy conditions.

John Deere Classic Model and Player Selection

With generous and forgiving fairways, and an average scrambling percentage around the greens of two points easier than Tour average, my most weighted categories in the "Final Model" will be SG: APP and SG: P. Historically, this has proven to be the most lethal combination to finding successful golfers who finish high on the leaderboard at the John Deere Classic. This does not mean you have to target only the best putters in the field. I am simply looking for players who are currently dialed in with their irons and are average-to-good putters. Another important metric I'm valuing highly is birdie percentage, and more specifically in the "Core 4" model this week, Birdie to Bogey ratio. Avoiding bogeys certainly won't win you this tournament, but slipping up on too many holes could lose it for you. Check out the "Scoring" model for the most important stats this week for players who have a chance at winning this shootout. Finally, with the tournament being held in the midwestern region of the country, SG: Midwest analyzes which players have had past success on other midwestern courses such as TPC Twin Cities, Detroit GC, Medinah, Muirfield Village, and others. As with last week, one of the sub-models will be exclusive to this article only. For this week, it is the "Hole Breakdown" model. This model categorizes every hole distance by par (i.e. Par 3 175-200) and weighs out the exact percentage of holes each is utilized on the course during the tournament. This gives a good overview of which golfers are best suited for the different hole types based on their strengths. Below the "Hole Breakdown" model is the "Final Model". No surprise that Daniel Berger takes the top spot for this week. Following him are Brian Harman and Sungjae Im. We have to dig deep into the research to find hidden gems this week. Just because it's a horrendous field doesn't mean there aren't glorious opportunities for players and bettors alike. I have been somewhat aggressive with my finishing position bets these first three weeks, and cashing three outrights in a row has more than covered some of those losses. So we roll into Week 4 here at #ForeForFore up over 13 units thus far.

Hole Breakdown Model

John Deere Classic Final Model

Outright Betting Selections

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

Top Tier

Well, thanks to an in-tournament Cameron Davis +4000 outright bet on Friday of last week, it's three outright wins in a row. In what is one of the least star-studded top-tiers in recent memory, I will start my card this week with Brian Harman at +1600 (1u) on DraftKings. He has made 13 of his last 14 cuts, including eight Top-20 finishes during that same timespan. The lefty has been the model of consistency and is itching to get back into the winner's circle. He is also the top-ranked golfer in my "Hole Breakdown" model and ranks in the top five of both my Scoring and Core 4 models. Next, I'm rolling with another consistent performer in Sungjae Im at +1800 (1u) on FanDuel. Im is trending in the right direction, gaining almost 10 strokes on SG: APP over the past three events. He finished eighth last week in Detroit and is very motivated to be on top of his game in time for the Olympics in Toyko in a few weeks. If this turns into an "irons and putting" contest, Im is one of the best in the field. He also ranks in the top 10 in five of my 11 models. At the bottom of this top tier, I will also take Russell Henley at +2000 (1u). Like Harman, Henley is another player due for a victory. He has played so well in difficult fields of late, finishing 13th at the U.S. Open and then 19th at the Travelers. The weakness of this field should give him a great chance of showcasing his fantastic all-around game. He is the top-ranked player in my SG: APP model this week.

Mid-Tier

Intriguing options drop off quite dramatically once you get further into this middle tier of players. At the top of this level, Kevin Streelman +2800 (1u) strikes my fancy. The top-ranked player in my SG: Midwest model, his game has been trending in the right direction for some time now. He did miss the cut by one stroke at his last event, but before that had four Top-20 finishes, including finishing eighth at the PGA Championship and 15th at the U.S. Open. He comes into this event as the second-best ball-striker in the field over the past 24 rounds. Near the bottom of the mid-tier, there are two selections who should be priced higher. First, Patton Kizzire +5000 (0.5u) on DraftKings is too streaky and cheap to pass up. One of the streakiest scorers on Tour, he left Detroit off an 8-under 64 on Sunday. Capable of making birdies in bunches, his waywardness off the tee won't hurt him here on TPC Deere Run's forgiving fairways. First in the Scoring model and sixth in the Core 4, Kizzire presents a great value selection. To round out the mid-tier, I will take Doc Redman (0.3u) at +5500 on DraftKings. A long-seeming underachiever, Redman appears to have turned a bit of a corner with two Top-10 finishes in his last six events. The main appeal for his selection, though, is his No. 2 ranking in the SG: APP model and No. 5 ranking in the Core 4. He also possesses a streaky putter, and when he's feeling it, can score low with the best in this field.

Longshots

My only dip in the longshot pool this week is for Roger Sloan at +10000 (0.2u) on PointsBet. He loves playing in the Midwest (second in the SG: Midwest model), finished 10th and 18th in his two previous appearances here, and finished 12th in my Final Model. In fact, he is one of the few players in the entire field to be positive in all 11 of the sub-models.

Finishing Positions

Top 10

• Daniel Berger +125 (1u) FanDuel
• Brian Harman +175 (1u) DraftKings
• Sungjae Im +185 (1u) FanDuel
• Russell Henley +200 (0.5u) FanDuel

Top 20

• Kevin Streelman +100 (2u) WilliamHill
• Alex Noren +155 (1u) FanDuel
• Troy Merritt +210 (1u) FanDuel
• Patton Kizzire +210 (1u) FanDuel

Top 30

• Cameron Davis +100 (1u) FanDuel
• Zach Johnson +125 (1u) FanDuel
• Aaron Wise +130 (1u) DraftKings
• Seamus Power +130 (1u) DraftKings
• Maverick McNealy +130 (1u) DraftKings
• Lucas Glover +150 (1u) FanDuel
• Hank Lebioda +175 (1u) DraftKings
• Pat Perez +200 (1u) FanDuel
• Roger Sloan +210 (1u) FanDuel

Top 40

• Doc Redman +110 (1u) FanDuel
• Harold Varner +110 (1u) DraftKings
• Dough Ghim +110 (1u) DraftKings
• Sebastian Munoz +120 (1u) FanDuel
• Scott Stallings +160 (2u) FanDuel

For the most up-to-date picks, or if you have any questions or comments, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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