Thursday Night DFS Single Game Breakdown: Falcons at Panthers

Oct 28, 2020
Thursday Night DFS Single Game Breakdown: Falcons at Panthers

Thursday night's game will feature a pass funnel defense against a run funnel defense, which is helpful until you remember that a million other single-game DFS obsessives might build their lineups based on that dynamic.

There's no better matchup for quarterbacks and receivers than the Falcons. Every passing attack shreds them. Even the Lions stumbled into more than 300 yards through the air against Atlanta. Conversely, Carolina is one of the best running back matchups. Teams don't really try to get at the Panthers via the passing game, choosing to grind them down with the running attack.

My galaxy brain is tingling though. It might behoove us to ignore these trends and build Thursday night single game lineups that will cut against the grain—assuming a big night for the Falcons passing game and, alternatively, Carolina's running attack. Or maybe not. It's hard to say.

Below is a breakdown of single-game DFS contests on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Week 8 Thursday Night Football matchup. Constructing single-game lineups requires some imagination, especially for large-field tournament purposes.

We want to create a lineup that reflects a certain kind of game script, choosing players who would thrive—or at least have the chance to thrive—if their teams got out to a lead or were left chasing points in the second half. There’s also the neutral script that doesn't tend to inflate opportunity for any one player or team. Understanding the likelihood of each scenario and piecing together a roster that would score a bunch of points in such a scenario is key to success in these single-game contests.

Remember: For the captain spot on DraftKings, the price (and fantasy points awarded) are multiplied by 1.5. On FanDuel, the prices are the same throughout, but the MVP slot receives 1.5 times the fantasy point value of the other roster spots.

Vegas Spread And Total

The over/under in this game has fallen from 51 to 49. The Panthers are 2.5 point favorites with an implied total of 25.75 points. Atlanta has a (pretty ugly) implied total of 23.25.

Potential Game Flow Scenarios

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