24 Players I Want to Draft Everywhere
Draft season is fully upon us and while many of our subscribers are preparing for one or just a few drafts, I’ve been drafting all offseason and have settled on a list of players that I’m targeting frequently. For a deep dive into my 2020 strategy, click here.
ADP is from 4for4’s multi-site report. Players with a ^ were added after the original publication.
Drew Brees, Saints (ADP - 81, QB10)
I go into great detail here, but suffice it to say that Brees’ ADP is low enough this year that drafters can take him in the eighth round and start him only at home and in favorable road matchups, where his production remains top-notch. Pair him with a high-upside late-round quarterback (like the two quarterbacks below) and get high-end QB1 production via a committee. Brees’ name recognition may make this difficult in home leagues since his ADP is likely to be higher, but in competitive leagues that tend to wait on the position, I love this plan.
Joe Burrow, Bengals (ADP - 131, QB17)
The Bengals are going to play at a fast pace and throw the ball a ton. In his first season as head coach, Zac Taylor called the fifth-most passes in the league and had the seventh-highest pace in neutral situations. The defense is likely to struggle, so Burrow should be a volume king in his rookie season.
Speaking of Burrow, I have a regression model to get a starting point for rookie quarterbacks and he came in with the highest-projected completion percentage, the second-highest projected touchdown percentage, the fourth-highest projected-YPA and the fourth-lowest projected interception percentage in the 55-player sample. He’s also projected to rush for 18.1 yards per game, giving him dual-threat ability to go along with a potent receiving corps that includes A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, Auden Tate, John Ross and Joe Mixon.
Ryan Tannehill, Titans (ADP - 145, QB21)
Last year, Tannehill posted career highs in completion percentage (70.3%), touchdown percentage (7.7%) and yards per attempt (9.6, the highest YPA of any QB to play 12 games since the 2000 season) en route to a 9-4 record as the starter, including the postseason. After taking over as the starter in Week 7, Tannehill was the No. 3 fantasy quarterback for the remainder of the season.
He’s going to regress, John! Yeah, he probably will, but he can regress and still finish as a QB1. Since 2000, the 15 quarterbacks who have posted a YPA of 8.5 or more in at least 12 games saw their YPA drop by an average of 10.1% in the following season, which would peg Tannehill’s 2020 YPA at 8.63, which is still elite. The five biggest drops averaged 16.8%, which would put his YPA at 7.98. Since 2000, the 14 quarterbacks who have posted a touchdown rate of 7.0% or higher in at least 12 games saw their rate drop by an average of 30.7% the following year. That would put Tannehill’s 2020 touchdown rate at 5.3%. That rate would have tied for the ninth-highest in 2019. Don’t let regression scare you off!
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