DraftDay Week 7 Values & Top Plays
My Perfect Lineup entry wasn't perfect. The lineup I entered last week was the same as I presented it here, and ended up with only two hits: Matt Forte and Demaryius Thomas, with Julius Thomas finishing as the second overall TE. The rest of last week’s perfect lineup was Cam Newton, Arian Foster, Andre Holmes, Mohamed Sanu, Jace Amaro, Stephen Gostkowski, and Detroit. Amaro was the biggest surprise, and shows why it’s probably best to get some low owned players in into your Perfect Lineup Entry.
Here’s what my perfect lineup entry will look like this week:
- QB Aaron Rodgers: Only four teams have given up more passing TDs per game (2.0) than the Panthers.
- RB DeMarco Murray: Giants are allowing 5.42 yards per carry in the last three weeks and 4.77 on the season.
- RB Andre Ellington: Raiders allow the second-most rushing yards per game (150) and he’s also a threat for a big receiving game.
- WR Antonio Brown: Texans give up the most yards per game to number one WRs (99.4) and his career TD rate at home is more than twice his road rate.
- WR Steve Smith: Continues to hit big plays, and the Falcons give up the fourth-most passing yards (278).
- WR Golden Tate: Saints are 28th in WR aFPA and are prone to coverage busts.
- TE Vernon Davis: I like his chances of going under the radar and the Broncos are 25th in TE aFPA.
- K Justin Tucker: Baltimore should be able to move the ball all day.
- D Seattle Seahawks: Rams are tied for last in DEF aFPA.
Now for this week’s top plays and values.
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QB Russell Wilson @ STL $14,600
In DFS, it’s important to be able to incorporate new information into our analysis, while at the same time not falling prey to recency bias. The new information we’ve learned is that the Cowboys’ defense thus far has been a more difficult matchup for QBs than anyone could have imagined prior to the season, as they now rank third in QB aFPA.
Don’t let recency bias shake your confidence in Wilson’s ability to rebound against the Rams this week. As you may remember, he was one of the hottest commodities in fantasy prior to the Cowboys game. He destroyed the Redskins, who were dead last in QB aFPA, and now faces the Rams, who are nearly as bad at 29th. St. Louis doesn’t have the means to play the same type of ball control offense that the Cowboys did against Seattle, and Wilson should have a much easier go of it. He’s still a top-five QB in DraftDay points per game despite last week’s dud. He might be low owned because of it.
QB Kirk Cousins vs. TEN $12,250
Some players are better in real life than in fantasy; Cousins is the opposite. He might float the football to the other team a few times (two per game to be exact), but thus far, those picks have been offset by averages of 330 yards and 2 TDs per game. The Titans defense has given up averages of 340 passing yards and 2.7 TDs in their past three games to Andrew Luck, Brian Hoyer, and Blake Bortles, so the odds are that Cousins continues to post passable fantasy numbers and pays off his modest cost.
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