DraftDay Week 12 Values & Top Plays
Unfortunately, QB pricing has tightened a bit so there is no stack quite as cheap or attractive as the Shaun Hill-Kenny Britt stack that was recommended in this space last week. However, I do see a couple of opportunities worth the risk.
The first and most obvious stack is Brian Hoyer ($10,500)-Josh Gordon ($9,950). Gordon has already displayed some huge upside in his short NFL career. Weather won’t be a factor in Atlanta and the Falcons are ranked 27th in QB aFPA and 25th in WR aFPA. Another little-known fact is that Hoyer is fourth in the NFL in deep passing attempts and second in deep passing completions.
With Allen Robinson going down for the season, stacking Blake Bortles ($10,550) with any combination of Cecil Shorts ($7,300), Allen Hurns ($7,300), and Marcedes Lewis ($5,150) indoors in a game with a 52 point over/under that could see considerable garbage time makes sense. Lewis is the top TE on our DraftDay Value Reports, and Shorts and Hurns are each ranked in the top five at WR. My personal preference is Hurns, because he was already second on the team in deep targets behind Robinson, and figures to kick back outside from the slot to assume Robinson’s role with Marquise Lee coming back from injury to play inside.
Here’s my weekly stab at the Perfect Million
- QB Andrew Luck: 300 yards in every game but one; 370 yards and 4 TDs in last meeting.
- RB: DeMarco Murray: Giants have been allowing north of 5.5 yards per carry since Jon Beason went down.
- RB Matt Forte: Forte should be able to rack up short receptions on a windy day in Chicago.
- WR Demaryius Thomas: Seven straight 100 yard games and leads Broncos in red zone targets; the TDs will come.
- WR T.Y.Hilton: Should be able to run circles around a Jaguars secondary that allows the third-most 20-plus yard passing plays.
- WR A.J.Green: Texans are dead last in WR aFPA and Green tends to play well away from home.
- TE Rob Gronkowski: The Lions have a strong run defense which means Gronk should go back to the centerpiece of the game plan.
- K Stephen Gostkowski: Was scoring like a position player until the Patriots went nuclear on the Colts with six TDs.
- DEF Indianapolis Colts: Jaguars 32nd in DEF aFPA and the Colts are 14 point home favroites.
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QB Andrew Luck vs. JAC $17,700
Luck is a “top play” rather than a value, but with the soft RB and WR pricing on DraftDay, you can fit him into your lineup. He’s passed for 300 yards in nine of ten games this season, and threw three passing TDs in the one game he didn’t. Jacksonville’s defense has given up the 5th-most total yardage per game, and Luck has accounted for 80 percent of the Colts’ league-leading total yardage in 2014. He’s projected to score three more points than any other player on the slate.
QB Colin Kaepernick vs. WAS $12,000
Kaep’ has been underwhelmingly consistent: between 192 and 248 passing yards in nine out of ten games, with at least one passing TD in each game, but more than two just once. Washington ranks dead last in QB aFPA, with a 20:3 TD:Interception ratio allowed.
The Redskins defense has been vulnerable to the exact things that give Kaepernick his upside: deep passing and rushing. Over the last two weeks, opposing QBs have launched 15 deep (20+ yard) passes against Washington, resulting in 240 yards and three TDs. The Redskins also were unable to contain the only other running QB they faced this season, allowing Russell Wilson to go off for 122 rushing yards on 11 carries in Week 5.
QB Mark Sanchez vs. TEN $11,500
Watching Sanchez in Philly, my thought is that he’s a quicker decision-maker, not necessarily a better decision-maker. However, with a solid supporting cast in a good offensive system, I’m willing to pay Sanchez’s modest QB18 price tag for a home tilt with the Titans defense, who rank 26th in QB aFPA.
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