It’s not often that a rookie wide receiver has the kind of year that Mike Williams had in 2010. The Tampa Bay wideout caught 65 passes for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns, and finished WR16 in PPR formats. To put his year in perspective, here is a list of the 16 other receivers that had at least 75% of Williams’ catches and yards in their rookie seasons since 1990. The cutoffs are 48 receptions, 723 yards and five TDs. (I set the bar a little lower for TDs to increase the sample size.)

So Williams had arguably the 7th most impressive rookie season of any wideout since 1990. But what does this mean for 2011? Here’s a look at how these 16 players did in their sophomore seasons.

Stats are nice, but let’s compare fantasy points year to year.

On average, sophomore studs regressed 10% in PPR formats and 14% in standard formats. So there’s a sophomore slump, right? Not so fast. Take a look at those last two columns. I listed the team’s leading passer each year, and only eight of the 16 players had the same QB for both seasons. Consistency at QB is important for a WR, and Williams has stability with Josh Freeman under center.

Players with consistency at QB saw a drop of 7% in PPR formats and 10% in standard leagues. But what about quality of QB play? As you can see, there are a few names on this list that aren’t exactly Hall of Fame caliber. Since Freeman looks like a 'good' QB, let’s just look at wideouts who had 'good' QBs throwing to them during their first two seasons.

Granted, a sample size of four is way too small to make any concrete conclusions, but on average, WRs in similar situations to Williams actually increased their production by 13% in their sophomore seasons. 4for4’s current rank for Williams (WR13) seems entirely reasonable. Looking at the Tampa Bay passing game as a whole, it should progress as Freeman grows in his role as franchise QB, and that should offset any threat that Arrelious Benn may pose as he returns from a knee injury. In fact, if Benn is healthy and productive, it may help the quality of Williams’ targets because the defense won’t be able to focus solely on him. Kellen Winslow is getting older, but he’s still a threat over the middle, which will only help to keep defenses honest. The only worry with Williams is that he may regress in the TD department, but he'll continue to be the Bucs' best option in the red zone. Utilizing the ADP Draft Planner, we can get an idea of what Williams’ availability will be on draft day. His ADP in PPR formats is currently 3.11 (WR13), so it appears that fantasy owners aren’t too worried about Williams regressing in his second season.

He is a solid value at his current ADP and obviously becomes a good value if he’s still available in the 4th round. Given that the RBs available in the middle of the 3rd aren’t exactly without risk (Mathews, Best, Bradshaw), Williams appears to be a very safe option for those owners who went RB/RB in the first two rounds or are willing to wait until the 4th (or later) to take their second RB.

CONCLUSION

The potential is there for a sophomore slump, and that is the general trend for WRs who have a big impact in their rookie seasons. But since Williams enjoys consistency and good play from his QB, he has a great chance to progress in his second season and enter WR1 territory. Draft him with confidence in the 3rd.