Week 4 at Tennessee Titans
Carson Wentz's return meant a concerning drop in targets for Nelson Agholor but more high-volume production from Zach Ertz. He is their de facto No. 1 WR. The Titans rank fifth in aFPA to TEs, but no matter. Ertz's target share makes him an automatic start every week in fantasy lineups at a thin fantasy position.
Week 3 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Philadelphia has an attractive 27-point implied team total this week. The Colts have allowed 12 receptions to tight ends this season. With Alshon Jeffery still on the shelf and now Mike Wallace on IR, Ertz should get a ton of targets. He's an elite TE option for Week 3.
Week 2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay may have been 10th last year in aFPA to TEs, but that's something you ignore when you have an elite-tier TE like Zach Ertz. His touchdown upside is lower with backup QB Nick Foles starting, but you can't argue with his usage—10 targets in Week 1. Let's just hope he's more efficient this time around in your lineup.
Week 1 vs. Atlanta Falcons (Thursday)
No Alshon Jeffery for Week 1 Thursday night means Zach Ertz should see an increase in targets and red zone looks as the primary fantasy option in the Eagles pass attack. Ertz is projected to be one of three elite tight ends this season by our projections, and it is no different for Week 1. Against the Falcons (14th vs. TE in aFPA last year), only Rob Gronkowski is projected to have a bigger week at the position.
Fantasy Upside
Zach Ertz has emerged as a top-three tight end option after posting 70+ receptions and 800+ yards in three consecutive seasons and averaged 15 fantasy points per game with Carson Wentz on the field last season. Plus, our projections show a steep drop after our top-three tight ends, which could give you a significant advantage if you have Ertz when playing the other teams in your league who do not have Rob Gronkowski or Travis Kelce.
Fantasy Downside
Some touchdown regression could be in order for Ertz, especially if Wentz is not healthy to start the season. Alshon Jeffery also is still recovering from a shoulder issue and if he misses time added coverage could come Ertz's way.
2018 Bottom Line
Ertz is typically going as the third tight end off the board in the third round. If you find yourself dissatisfied with the RB or WR options left at that point in the draft, do not be afraid to pull the trigger on Ertz. We would not take him earlier than the third in drafts this year.
Super Bowl vs. New England Patriots
What matters in this different one-game format is not so much how many points we project each player for but how much each player costs per point. In FanDuel's half-point PPR format, here's how we value the tight ends, strictly in terms of dollar/FanDuel point: Rob Gronkowski>Zach Ertz>Trey Burton>Dwayne Allen.
As for DraftKings' full PPR scoring, here's how we value the tight ends in terms of dollar/DraftKings point: Zach Ertz>Trey Burton>Rob Gronkowski>Dwayne Allen.
NFC Conference Championship vs. Minnesota Vikings
Of the three big-name tight ends this week, Ertz has the best matchup according to aFPA. However, Ertz, Gronkowski, and Rudolph all face top-10 defenses in aFPA to the position. In full PPR, Ertz is the best value on paper if you are looking for some salary relief from Rob Gronkowski. Just know the Eagles have the lowest implied team total in Vegas this week.
Divisional Round vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Eagles have the third-lowest implied team total in Vegas this week at 19 points as an underdog. The Falcons are more beatable through the air (26th in aFPA vs. TEs) compared to the ground (first in aFPA vs. RBs). Nick Foles has also targeted Ertz more than any other Eagles pass-catcher. He has a great matchup and a potential negative game script. He's an upper-tier option in the divisional round at TE.
Week 17 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Eagles have locked up home-field advantage in the postseason, and head coach Doug Pederson has indicated his offensive starters will not play the entire game Week 17. It's impossible to know how much Zach Ertz will play. For that reason alone, he is not a starting consideration in Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Oakland Raiders
The Eagles play Christmas night (Monday), and anybody with Eagles players must be aware that Doug Pederson has hinted this week of resting starters if/when the Eagles lock up home field advantage. If the Vikings lose Saturday (a long shot at Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers), the Eagles will have already done that. Otherwise, the Eagles currently have the third-highest team total in Vegas this week, and the Raiders are poor against TEs (21st in aFPA). Ertz caught 6-of-9 targets from Nick Foles last week for more than 50 yards and a touchdown. He continues to be a safe TE option, despite the QB change. Start him up in Week 16.
